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Hello everyone,
I do hope you had a great day.
I have been on the road all day,
so I will endeavor to keep tonight's post concise and to the point,
before my eyes drop and I fall out of my chair!
One thought before I do that,
I usually lead every night with a story concerning the epicly overvalued stock-market.
Some might think that I over concentrate on the stock market,
and that there is much more going on in the world than a bubble in U.S stocks.
This is true to an extent,
But it misses the point.
Here's the reason I concentrate so much on stocks.
The stock market is the human races method of independently valuing its own productive capacity.
It is akin to staring at our reflection in the mirror and valuing what we see.
So,
When the stock market is insanely overvalued;
it suggests that the human race is out on a limb regarding its view of itself.
much like Narcissus falling in love with his own reflection until he eventually keeled over and died!
We are so enamored with our own abilities
that we have abandoned all care and attention for risk and loss.
I have probably presented the story from about ten different angles at this stage.
The common thread of the stories I present every night is this.
the stock market valuation is about to keel over and die!
And the pendulum will swing to the very opposite extreme.
And that is where a generational wealth creation opportunity lies.
I will be there when that opportunity arrives.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: N/A
GBP: Services PMI, Net Lending to Individuals m/m.
JPY: N/A[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD continued the corrective decline today.
The price is fast approaching initial support at 1.1961,
This level should offer support to this decline in wave 'iv' pink.
The price seems to have completed a three wave decline as I write,
So, wave 'iv' is near completion,
And the turn upwards in wave 'v' could begin above support.
For tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to complete above 1.1961,
The minimum target for wave 'v' lies at 1.2082.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable declined rather sharply today in a possible wave 'iv' pink.
the nature of the decline suggests a possible alternate three wave structure
for the final leg up in wave (c) brown.
This structure would complete a double combination wave (c).
And this is shown circled in red.
If the price falls below 1.3456,
that alternate count will be triggered.
The RSI is pretty agnostic at the moment.
The upper target remains the same for wave (c) brown at 1.3842.
For tomorrow;
Watch for support at 1.3456 to hold and wave 'v' pink to rally higher.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
There is a possibility that wave (ii) has bottomed at the recent low of 112.05.
The rise in USDJPY today is so far in three waves,
So it must develop further into a five wave structure to confirm that view.
If wave (ii) is complete it will classify as a running flat by the fact that the low of wave 'a' was not broken.
Initial resistance lies at 113.08,
the previous left shoulder of the rise off the low.
If the price breaks that level,
It will add confidence to the bullish setup.
For tomorrow;
watch 113.08 for a bullish break.
A corrective decline in a second wave will offer another low risk opportunity.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
I have shown another possible alternate view of the recent sideways action in stocks.
It is possible that the drift sideways for the last two weeks
is a contracting triangle in wave '4' blue.
I have labelled the internal waves of the triangle for clarity.
Triangles are a penultimate move.
So again we can expect that wave '5' blue is the final leg of the never-ending bull market!
If wave '5' blue reaches equality with wave '1' blue,
That projects a possible target at 25354.
It remains to be seen if wave '5' itself will extend in structure to allow that high to be reached.
For tomorrow;
wave '4' blue completed at 24731,
this low must hold in order for the triangle idea to remain valid.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
The high of the day in GOLD reached 1321 cash,
off that high we can see a clear three wave decline with a solid bounce this evening.
This price action suggests a correction in wave 'iv' is possibly complete at the low of the session.
The Fibonacci projected high for wave (iii) blue lies at 1330,
Which is the 261.8% extension of wave (i) blue.
So we should expect a further rise into the target to complete wave 'v' of (iii).
For tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'v' brown to complete in the region of 1330.
at that point we should expect a further correction in wave (iv) blue.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Wave 'iv' pink ended abruptly, and the market rose sharply again today!
Wave 'v' seems to be extending in a further five wave structure.
I have labelled the internal waves in black.
The fibonacci target for wave (iii) at 61.22 has already been surpassed,
So it would be wise to look for a top in wave (iii) grey to arrive very soon.
And the initial target for wave (iv) grey lies at 60.10,
Which is the previous wave 'iv' of one lesser degree.
So,
for tomorrow;
I am looking for wave (iii) grey to complete at nearby highs,
and the first decline into wave (iv) grey to get underway before the end of the week.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]