[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good evening everyone.
It has been quiet all round today,
Something tells me the big boys in NY and London have gone on holidays!
Lets see what we can read from the action.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, ECB President Draghi Speaks. USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
EURUSD has been dead calm, and is closing flat on the day.
Todays trading range was about 40 points!
SO last nights wave count still holds.
The bearish interpretation views the price as possibly beginning a downward phase
in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii).
This wave should involve a large acceleration to the downside.
If 1.1847 is broken, that will invalidate the bearish count for a short while.
For tomorrow;
1.1730 is the price to watch in terms of the bearish count,
If this level breaks it will signal that wave ‘3’ grey is underway.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
Cable did correct upwards to meet the trendline in a possible wave ‘2’ grey as called for by the wave count.
The price currently sits at that important support at 1.2811.
Wave ‘3’ grey should take over from here
And carry the price towards the lower trendline again.
The initial resistance at 1.2916 must hold for this short term count to remain valid.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a break of todays lows at 1.2773,
That will indicate that wave ‘3’ grey is underway.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
The light market action today, did not do much to guide us to the correct wave count in USDJPY
The price rise off last nights lows does have a three wave form to it so far.
This poses a threat to support at 108.60,
As you can interpret the decline off 109.82 as a five wave form,
And todays rise as a three wave form.
Which suggests further declines below support.
On the 4hr chart we again see a bullish momentum setup.
This is the again another plus for the current bullish stance.
For tomorrow;
If the price continues upward to break 109.82,
Then wave ‘3’ pink is most likely correct.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
The DOW declined today in a possible leading diagonal, labelled wave ‘1’ blue.
Then a rise to a lower high occurred,
Follow then by another impulsive selloff.
If we get further declines tomorrow,
And the high labelled wave ‘2’ remains untouched,
That will be the first sign that wave ‘iii’ pink is underway.
Wave ‘iii’ pink will be confirmed when the price declines below 21598.
For tomorrow;
21878 must hold,
Another impulsive move below the wave ‘1’ low will likely be within wave ‘3’ blue.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
The price range continued to contract in GOLD today,
This market is preparing for a large move once this triangle is complete.
I have shown another alternate wave interpretation for this triangle, as indicated with the dotted line.
Wave ‘2’ pink is possibly still unfolding in three waves off the high,
This would allow for another decline into support to complete.
For tomorrow;
I will remain with the current wave count,
A break above 1293 will strengthen the operating wave count,
The target remains the same to complete wave ‘iii’ brown.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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