Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

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A variation on the triangle idea fits the action quite well
even after the spike this evening.

IF wave ‘iv’ is now complete with three waves up and a triangle internal as wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’.
then we should see another decline into wave ‘v’ of [v] for at least tomorrow possibly longer.
Wave ‘v’ will break the wave ‘iii’ low at a minimum,
that gives us a target at 1.0472.
But I am prepared for more if that happens.

Tomorrow;
Watch for another five wave drop into wave ‘v’ of (v).
Give that wave ‘iii’ of (v) was such a large extension wave,
that may well favor an un-extended wave ‘v’.
We will see.

GBPUSD

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Cable is still holding onto that higher low above 1.2411 today,
but the wave ‘iii’ rally is simply not happening yet.
I am still quite hopeful that the rally into the wave ‘i’ highs at 1.2614 is an impulsive one,
and this should be followed by a rally into wave ‘iii’ to pull cable out of the doldrums of the last months.
So that wave ‘i’ high is the key level for the beginning of wave ‘4’ up.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (a) to hold the higher low above 1.2411 again.
Wave ‘iii’ needs to get underway this week really.

USDJPY.

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USDJPY was very stable this week until now!
I think this sideways action can be best explained as a failed correction in wave ‘ii’.
A variation on a running flat possibly.

The wave ‘ii’ pattern is still valid for the moment,
And the sharp decline this evening is a vote in favor of wave ‘iii’ down now underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘i’ low at 129.30 to act as resistance to the developing wave ‘iii’ down.
Ideally wave ‘iii’ will fall below the 128.00 level again.

DOW JONES.

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The Market was pretty quiet today until the fed came out with their musings!
The market shot higher as a knee jerk reaction,
probably based on the reduced figure on QT.
But who knows really!

As for the short term count,
I have switched to an alternate view on wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ as a result of that rally.
And it seems wave ‘ii’ is still a three wave form,
with a small triangle wave ‘b’.

The price has reached back to the previous fourth wave highs and the 50% retracement level again after that rally.
So all signs point to a reversal beginning tomorrow back into wave ‘iii’ down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to give up early tomorrow.
a retracement back below 33000 again will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

GOLD

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Gold is holding above the 1850 low again today,
but I am not convinced that we are out of the water of this correction in wave [ii] yet.
If there is a panic selling frenzy in the stock market as I am suggesting this week,
then it might just spark a selloff in everything and a rush to cash again,
so I am a little wary about calling a low for wave [ii] just yet.

Tomorrow;
If the 1850 low holds again and the price actually rallied back above the wave ‘iv’ high at 1919 again,
that will be a strong signal that the low is in for wave [ii].

We do have a three wave pattern higher into the channel again this evening,
So that does suggest another small correction higher to be followed by a decline into wave ‘v’.

Just be aware of that lower target level at 1818,
that level is still possible for wave (C) of [ii] as I described on Monday.

CRUDE OIL.

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It looks like wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now in play today
after the price has just broken above the wave ‘i’ high at 107.22 this evening.
The confirmation line for this count lies at 109.20 at the wave (i) high.

Tomorrow;
The main count is clear and simple,
the price will rise along the path of wave (iii) as long as 101.30 continues to hold.

Watch for wave ‘iii’ to to break above 109.20 to confirm this count.

S&P 500.

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That sharp rally has forced a switch to the alternate count for the S&P.
overall we have five waves down into the wave (i) low.
and we have a three wave pattern higher into wave (ii) at todays high.

I will be very interested to see wave (ii) hold at or near that 50% retracement level at 4350.
And the reverse again in a sharp impulsive rally to begin wave ‘iii’ down.

I have marked the wave ‘b’ low at 4148 as an important signal level.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should easily break that low if we see a reversal before the weekend.

Tomorrow;
At this point todays rally changes absolutely nothing.
A reactionary move off a government announcement.
And I don’t think anyone has allowed themselves to think about what effect
QT or slush fund reduction is going to have on this extremely weak economy/market.

Either way,
I think the bearish argument is a strong one here for sure.

Watch for a reversal off a lower high in wave (ii) by tomorrow evening.

SILVER.

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Three waves up in wave (iv) now complete after the rally this evening.
That sharp rally fits well with wave ‘c’ as shown.
And think the price will reverse into wave (v) down coming this week.
I do want to see the high at wav ‘iv’ act as hard resistance now though,
so a continued rally tomorrow will weaken my argument here for the larger wave (C) decline.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to show signs of reversal again tomorrow out of this three wave correction higher.
I want to see wave (v) down begin before tomorrow evening.