Heres an update on the main counts that I'm following in the Big 3 USDFX markets.
Short term patterns are always difficult to nail down on an hour by hour basis,
but, in my mind,
these markets are all pointing one way in the long term,
that is - USD strength.
Enjoy the charts!
EURUSD is stubbornly hanging on to the gains made last week.
The action today has not given us any further insight really.
The alternate count is still quite viable unless we get an impulsive decline off this wave (ii) high.
The high today is just below the 61.8% retracement of wave (i).
So this level should continue to offer resistance to any further advance.
I await the initial drop into wave (iii) to rule out the alternate count.
Watch for that 61.8% retracement level to hold and a five wave decline to begin tomorrow
This evenings drop off a lower high could be a third wave down to begin wave (i) off the high.
I have labelled this as wave 'iii' of (i),
the acceleration in wave 'iii' fits the picture,
but we will need to see more downside to confirm the move as an impulse wave.
1.2926 marks the high of wave (a),
and this is initial support.
I want to see a break of that level tomorrow in wave 'iii'.
The low of wave (B) lies at 1.2625, a break of that level will add significant weight to the idea that this market is turning.
1.3220 should hold.
Further declines in wave 'iii' of (i) are expected.
USDJPY is in a coma over the last week!
the price has bounced around in an 85 point range,
and this is indicative of a correction.
So the idea of a larger move higher in the near term is still solid.
All we need is a signal that wave (iii) up is underway
with the formation of an impulsive higher low above 109.13.
I have labelled that move as waves 'i' and 'ii' to the upside.
And that is the main focus this week.
Watch for 109.13 to hold to confirm that wave (ii) is complete.
A break of 110.00 again will signal that wave 'i' of (iii) is in play.