Good evening to all you fine folks!
The video is recorded and posted already.
If you have nothing more interesting planned tonight,
you can always listen to the worst produced video on the internet!
On a side note,
I posted a chart of house price deceleration in the Irish market a few weeks agao.
And today we got the updated figures in the index.
And it is not good!
Look at the grey line far right!
There is a massive deceleration underway on a yearly basis in the market.
Which means the credit market in general is decelerating.
Which means overall purchasing power in the economy is decelerating.
We all know what comes next......
And let me tell you one thing people in this neck of the woods are not expecting.
Another downturn in the economy!
no-one is prepared.
And everyone will be hurt.
Why does this matter to you?
Because, you could look at this little Island as a petri-dish for the larger western world.
I got my popcorn ready for this one!
EURUSD did not break resistance at 1.1734, so the bearish wave count still holds.
Prices sold off quite sharply off the high at 1.1722.
I have labelled this wave 'i' of (iii).
If this count holds up,
Then next week EURUSD should continue to slide into support at 1.1300.
Watch for 1.1734 to hold and wave (iii) to carry lower.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 1.1525.
Cable has dropped off the highs today without breaking the upper trend line in red.
The price is now declining in a possible wave 'i' of (i) of [iii].
If this is correct,
Then cable has seen its final high for quite some time to come.
As the target for wave [iii] green is in the region of 115.00!
So the aim from here is confirm that wave [ii] green is complete.
I will be looking for a bearish signal to develop off the high at 1.3140.
Lets see if we get five waves down from here.
USDJPY continues to slog higher in a possible wave '3' of 'iii'.
The price has failed to accelerate,
And the structure off the recent low is nicely held in a trend channel so far
so there is still a chance that the alternate count will take over.
Watch for a break out above the upper trend channel line in wave 'iii' brown.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
The DOW is back off the highs again and back below 26167,
the previous wave (iii) high.
The ending diagonal wave [v] idea is gaining steam after todays session.
And so far the larger wave count in wave (2) red is very much intact.
The aim remains the same from here.
I want to see the completion of this wave (2) high,
and an initial five wave decline in wave '1' of (3).
The stakes are very high here.
So I am willing to wait patiently at this point.
Lets see if that upper trendline repels the price lower over the coming week.
Five waves down is the aim.
GOLD has declined again in a three wave form off the high so far today.
I have labelled this wave '2' of 'iii'.
there is a good chance that the structure is completing a larger wave (ii) correction.
This is shown as the alternate wave count.
The alternate count would allow for a a slight new low below 1187 to complete.
Watch for 1187.86 to hold and a rally in wave '3' of 'iii' to begin.
U.S CRUDE OIL
Crude looks to have completed another five wave structure to the downside again today in a possible wave 'i' of (i) of [iii].
The price whipsawed around this evening in wave 'ii'.
Wave 'ii' may not yet be complete so we count see a sideways corrective recovery on Monday.
If we see a break of the wave 'i' low at 67.94 again,
that will signal that wave 'iii' has begun.
Watch for wave 'ii' to complete below 70.50.
And the first move down in wave 'iii'.
US 10 yr Treasuries.
The 10YR declined again today in a possible wave 'v' pink.
The larger wave (i) blue is now near completion.
A break of support at 118.80 would be a good signal that the larger downtrend was underway again.
But we may have to wait for wave (iii) blue to do that for us!
The minimum target for wave 'v' pink has now bee reached,
So I will be looking for wave (ii) to begin early next week.
With an initial target at 119.85.
watch for wave (i) blue to complete at nearby lows.
A break of 119.60 again will signal that wave (ii) has begun.
After another down day in silver,
the price is only barely holding on to the bullish setup!
silver has declined in three waves so far.
So it still counts as a second wave correction.
A break above 14.33 again will signal wave '3' of 'i' has begun.
If the price breaks 13.94 again,
That will force a re-think of the wave count.
13.94 must hold form here.
Look for a break of 14.33 in a possible wave '3' up.
The S&P held below 2916 today which saves the bearish count for now.
The price structure off the wave (i) low is still in a corrective three wave form.
And the fact that we saw a decline off that upper trendline today,
does add some weight to the current count.
We still have to wait for a break of 2863 again to confirm that wave 'iii' down has begun.
Watch for 2916 to hold,
And an impulsive decline in wave 'i' of (iii).
That is it for the week.
I wish you all a nice weekend.
My wife goes on night duty this weekend.
So I will be out-numbered and out-gunned by my little's for the next week.
Wish me luck!
All the best,
And God's speed.