Good evening all.
Its the last day of the year tomorrow, and it is the last trading day of the year also.
The market will be closed on Wednesday, so as usual there will not be any update on Wednesday night.
Thursday will see us back to normal again.
Alrighty, here we go!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has hit the minimum target for the advance in wave ‘c’ of (c) today.
This level lies at 1.1199,
and todays price high hit 1.1220.
The upper trend channel line suggests a top for wave (c) at 1.1300 or there about,
so there is still room to advance to the upside.
But,
If we see a drop back below 1.1065 again in an impulsive manner,
that will signal wave (c) and wave [ii] are complete at todays highs.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if we can hold around the 1.1200 area overnight in a corrective move sideways..
If that happens,
then we can expect the higher target at 1.1300 to bit met by tomorrow evening most likely.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is holding on to the gains in today after Fridays advance.
The price has rallied into that ‘shelf’ at wave ‘iv’
which is normal for a corrective rally.
But the question is this,
have we now completed wave (ii),
or is this rally only wave ‘a’ of a larger three wave move.
the decline off this high tomorrow should offer an answer to this question.
If we see a three wave decline from here,
that will signal wave (ii) is going to extend as I have shown on the short term chart.
Tomorrow;
Watch for at least a three wave decline in wave ‘b’ of (ii) to form a higher low above 1.2903.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is finally declining off the highs at wave ‘B’ today.
The structure looks impulsive so far,
So I have labelled this drop as part of wave [iii] of ‘C’.
If I am right here,
then wave ‘C’ should continue lower over the next week or so
to complete a larger triangle correction in wave (E).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iii] to continue lower into 108.40 before a correction in wave [iv] begins.
The larger wave ‘C’ should push towards the 107.00 handle when complete.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Finally,
a down day in the market to lift my spirits!
There is not a whole lot that we can read into this action at all yet.
A decline off the overbought extreme was inevitable to be honest,
what matter from this point on is how this decline develops in erms of its structure.
A five wave impulsive decline will be very interesting,
especially if we break below the 28000 level again.
And after a decline in wave (i),
we need a corrective three wave advance to a lower high in wave (ii).
That should be a signal that a bigger decline in wave [i] is building.
And that wave should take us into the first few weeks of the new year,
if this setup plays out.
It is a very interesting time right now,
but we need more downside action in order to get excited again for the longer term possibilities.
Tomorrow;
Lets see how this fresh decline develops this week.
We may be able to identify a five wave structure by the end of trading tomorrow.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
GOLD has been sitting just below the initial resistance level at 1516 today.
I am viewing this action favorably at the moment,
as this could be a small correction within wave ‘iii’ pink.
Possibly even a small fourth wave sideways correction,
before we rally again later in the week to complete wave ‘iii’.
I do want to see wave ‘iii’ top out up in that band of resistance between 1535 and 1554 over the next week.
A break into that area will be very bullish indeed,
and it should set us up for a break out abovethat level in wave ‘v’ of (i) in january.
back to the short term though.
Tomorrow;
watch for this sideways action to hold close to 1516 for the moment,
a break above that level in a impulsive move
will signal wave ‘iii’ will closing out a five wave advance this week.
Price should hold above 1500 from now on.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is closing out the session off the highs after a spike lower this afternoon.
If this is the end of wave (c) now in place,
then we should see further downside action for the rest of the week.
A five wave decline from here will signal wave (i) down has begun.
Wave (i) should push below 55.00 again before any correction in wave (ii) begins.
Tomorrow;
Crude is in a very similar position to stocks in the short term.
A decline in five waves from this point
will signal a larger shift into a downtrend is beginning again in wave [iii].
Watch for wave (i) to continue lower for the rest of the week.
A break of 60.00 again will be a good sign that wave (i) is underway.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is heading towards the lows of the session at the close tonight,
I am hesitant to make too much of this,
but it is welcome none the less.
If a bigger turn is to develop from here,
then the first interesting level to the downside lies at 3190 where wave (iv) finished.
below that wave (i) topped out at 3150 and then wave (ii) at 3115.
If the market moves down through these levels in an impulsive fashion without much support arising,
then we can get a little more serious.
For the moment,
I will call this an interesting turn in favor of my preferred wave count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) to hold at the all time high again.
If this is wave (i) now underway,
then it should cut down through 3190 with ease.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is stil in a corrective holding pattern today off Fridays lows.
It is impossible to know if wave ‘iv’ has completed already,
or if todays action was simply part of a larger corrective structure.
Wave ‘iv’ has completed three waves down,
but this action can also be viewed as a triangle pattern still unfolding.
We should know by tomorrow evening if wave ‘iv’ is still in force.
If the price continues to oscillate around the 17.90 area,
that will favor the triangle idea.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold above 17.30.
A break above 18.00 again will signal wave ‘v’ of (i) has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds initially reacted lower off that upper trend channel line high created no Friday.
This is an interesting move in favor of the idea that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) has begun,
but it has not confirmed that count yet either.
Only an impulsive move below the recent lows at 127.89 will confirm wave ‘iii’.
This evening saw a rally again off the lows of the session.
so the alternate count has not been ruled out yet.
A break above 129.00 again will trigger the alternate count so that level must hold from here on.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to turn lower again.
Fridays high topped at 128.65,
this level should hold, to signal that last weeks correction higher is now over.