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Hello everyone.

After missing Fridays trade a few things of note have occurred,
so lets wrap up before Christmas sets in,
by running through the counts and updating the charts.

Here we go.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD has continued to drop off the recent high at 1.1199.
The action over the last few sessions now triggers the initial alternate count for wave (c) grey.
This involves a three wave advance in wave (c),
instead of the previous five wave pattern I was working with.

So far the decline off the high at wave ‘a’ high is in three waves.
This fits with a corrective decline in wave ‘b’,
And it suggest a further rally in wave ‘c’ over the coming few sessions to complete wave (c).

This week;
Watch for the price to find support above 1.1038.
Wave ‘c’ of (c) will be confirmed with a break of 1.1175.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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The decline in cable is extending lower again.
It is now possible that wave ‘v’ of (i) is itself creating a five wave pattern today.
the next level of support lies at 1.2826,
so I expect wave (i) to complete at or near that level.
And then we should see a corrective rally in wave (ii) begin.

This week;
The decline in wave (i) has now almost retraced the complete rally in the previous wave (v).
Wave (i) should complete very soon,
and then wave (ii) will likely retrace up towards 1.3150 again.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY has not turned down into wave (iii) in an impulsive fashion yet.
But the rise into today’s highs at 109.53 is in three waves.
This action suggests a corrective rise again,
and that should be retraced over the coming sessions.

This week;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 109.68.
Wave (iii) should continue lower towards 108.45 again.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The rally did continue over the last few days in a true optimistic Christmas fashion!

The triangle wave (iv) is in play again today!
The action off the wave (iii) high is just too tempting not to label it as such.

On top of that,
the structure of the rally out of wave (iv)
is now a completed five wave pattern itself.

So;
The pattern is wave [v] green is now complete.
It is possible to count fives all the way up through the chain of this bull market into todays highs.
I am now more than ever looking for that initial turn down to begin,
to bring an end to this bull market.

This week;
The trading should be thin this week
so I don’t expect any major trend to show itself over the Christmas break.
It is not impossible to see an initial turn down begin though.
wave (iv) lies at 28200,
lets see if the market will fall back into that level first.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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The rise in gold continued today against the tide of a euphoric stock market,
which raises my suspicions even further for gold!
We are close to breaking that 1486 level again also,
so each day brings a new glimmer of hope on the bullish side.

This week;
The price has not yet confirmed the bullish outlook either,
so I remain cautiously optimistic at this point.
Only a push above 1516 will confirm the bullish count,
but that is very possible as long as we keep creating higher lows in the price pattern.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude has finally come off the boil at wave [ii] green.
The price has fallen today in a possible impulse wave lower.
This pattern may still be developing in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’,
so I will give it more time to unfold to the downside
before calling the top in place for the long haul.
The early signs are promising though.

This week;
Watch for the highs of wave [ii] to hold at 61.28.
If the price accelerates lower and breaks 58.70 again that will be a good sign that we have turned down for good.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P rallied hard off the 3187 corrective lows posted last week.
That sideways action is viewed as triangle wave ‘iv’ of (v).
Wave ‘v’ of (v) has a nice tidy internal five wave pattern to it also.
So in terms of a completed pattern, this action has it all.
And I am ready for the market to turn down again impulsively off these highs to begin wave (i) of [i].
If we see a drop back below that 3180 level again it will suggest a top is in.

This week;
Watch for this euphoria to wear off and wave (i) down to begin with a break of initial support.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver broke above 17.30 today which is in line with the short term bullish count.
The price should continue higher in wave ‘iii’
and possibly hit above 18.00 again before wave ‘iv’ pink begins.
The next major level of resistance lies at 18.31 this marks the high of the previous wave (b) of [iv].
If this level breaks after a five wave rally,
that will pretty mush confirm the bullish outlook.

This week;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue to hold above 16.86 at wave ‘ii’.
Lets see if this rally can break out above the rising trend channel.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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Bonds have held in a sideways pattern today off last Thursdays lows.
It seems this action is still corrective within wave ‘iii’,
and it looks like we need another pop higher to complete a three wave correction in that minor trend channel.
A rise into 128.50 should complete this correction,
and then we can look for wave ‘iii’ down to return lower again.
A break of 127.89 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is in force.

This week;
129.05 should hold.
watch for wave ‘iii’ to accelerate lower to confirm the bearish pattern.

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So Christmas is upon us again, where did the time go only God knows!

I wish you all a wonderful and blessed Christmas and I will catch up with you on Friday again for a quick wrap up to the week.

Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

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