Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessings to you all.

There was a wild reaction today to the actions of the BoJ,
and the first thought I had was,
what else did we expect them to do??
there is no market for Japanese govt bonds, so they are forced to buy everything!
Its that simple.
The mad rush into the Yen on the back of that announcment was a surprise to be honest!
And that action has forced a rethink of the main count,
but I will get to that later.

Gold and silver put in a fairly sharp rally today against what I was expecting,
but I do think that is another knee jerk reaction that will be retraced completely.

Ok,
lets see how the patterns faired in general tonight,
on with the show.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has again moved exactly sideways and has ended the session close to flat.
I am hard pressed to call this action anything other than a correction in wave ‘b’ of ‘a’.
I can see a possible triangle to form the centre of wave ‘b’,
and now this evening we have a drop back off the high of wave ‘b’ again.
This should be the beginning of wave ‘c’ of ‘a’.
and if all goes well tomorrow wave ‘c’ should fall towards that initial support at 1.0510.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave ‘b’ high to hold at 1.0657.
Wave ‘c’ should trace out five waves down from here into that 1.05 handle again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

A small triangle seems to be in place in cable today also.
The action is just as confused as Eurusd today,
but I am still reasonably confident that a larger three wave decline in wave (a) is the best fit pattern here.
And if that is the case,
then we should see another drop in wave ‘c’ of (a) to break below 1.20 at a minimum.
The preferred target for wave (a) lies at the previous wave ‘ii’ low at 1.1900,
but we will see how the trade goes tomorrow to confirm or invalidate my count here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold below 1.2241.
A five wave decline from here should complete wave ‘c’ of (a) below 1.20 over the next few days.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Even though the actoin was a shock to the system, and the previous wave count,
there are two ways to fit todays action into the larger wave count for wave (4) blue.
I have shown both on the main chart.

Lets start with the main count.
This large drop can be viewed as wave ‘C’ already underway far sooner than I suspected.
And in that case,
the acceleration lower is viewed as wave [iii] of ‘C’ of ‘4’.
There is a further drop expected in this count to complete wave ‘C’ as shown.

The price has now hit the target area that I had for wave (4).
You can see this on the 4hr chart.
The target low at 130.00 was formed by the previous wave ‘4’ low.
So I do think we will see some support arise here.

As for the alternate count.
This new low may be the final wave [v] low within wave ‘A’ of (4).
And from this point we should expect a rally to begin into wave ‘B’ of (4) over the coming weeks.

In both scenarios we should see a significant low come in pretty soon.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the action to stabilise within the pattern.
A corrective rise in three waves from here will suggest wave [iv] is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow managed a small rise today off the wave ‘5’ low and at the moment I view this move higher as the beginning of wave ‘ii’ pink.
Wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’ almost hit the previous wave ‘4’ high at the session high this afternoon,
this is enough to suggest wave ‘a’ may be complete at todays high.
In this scenario,
wave ‘b’ should form a higher low above the wave ‘i’ low.
and then wave ‘c’ will most likely rally into the week end to complete the lower high wave ‘ii’ pink.

There is another count for todays action that suggests wave ‘4’ of ‘i’ is only now complete at the session high.
And if this is correct,
we will see another sharp drop below 32470 to complete wave ‘i’ down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete e higher low above 32470 and then turn higher into wave ‘c’ on Thursday.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

With the slightest snif of trouble in the air these days gold immediately gets bid higher.
Now in general I do suspect that fear will be the major catalyst for the next big leg higher from here,
but right now,
the fear trade has not materialised in the wider market as we can see in the volatility indexes.
so I am suspect about this rally again.
The pattern in gold will need to complete a larger correction into wave (ii) before I will be willing to consider the next big rally ahead into wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
I think the next few days will see gold settle back into the wave (ii) correction.
Todays high is a three wave patern off the wave ‘a’ low.
I am suggesting that this is only wave ‘b’ of a flat correction now.
And wave ‘c’ is expected to fall again back below 1773 at a minimum to complete wave (ii).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is still holding that lower high below wave (ii) at 77.82 so at the moment the main count is still valid as a wave ‘ii’ lower high.
I am getting concerned here that we have not seen the next leg lower build into wave ‘iii’ yet.
But the action this week has been corrective to the upside for sure.
And so the wave ‘i’ ‘ii’ labelling stays for now.

I have shown another possible pattern that explains the action over the last few weeks.
This involves a larger wave (ii) blue.
and in this scenario wave ‘b’ of (ii) will complete a three wave decline near the 72.00 handle.
And then wave ‘c’ of (ii) will rally again to complete above 78.00 again next week.

I am going to follow both of these short term patterns until I can rule out the least likely interpretation.

Tomorrow;
Both short term patterns suggest a decline is coming to finish the week.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to be confirmed with a break below 70.30 again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am taking a different view on the S&P tonight as compared to the Dow.
The small corrective rise today is viewed as a possible wave ‘4’ of ‘i’.
and wave ‘5’ is expected to drop back below 3775 again to complete five wave down in wave ‘i’ pink.
A break of 3775 again is the minimum target for wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ to complete.
The price is approaching a series of support lows within the previous rally,
these levels may offer enough support to for the wave ‘i’ low.

After that happens,
I will then be quite happy to look for wave ‘ii’ to begin a three wave correction higher as shown.
The target area for wave ‘ii’ lies at about 3950 where the 50% retracement of wave ‘i’ lies.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete with a drop below 3775 again.
If the price breaks back above 3870 again that will suggest wave ‘ii’ is already underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I know most people will say I am a fool for suggesting that silver has a major decline ahead of it,
but despite the rally to a new high today along with gold,
the overall pattern in wave [c] of ‘4’ is about as extended as you can get now.
The pattern and the momentum picture both suggest a top nearby,
and the next decline should be a real humdinger!
The recent run into silver,
against a relatively quiet volatility backdrop across the markets is a canary in the coal mine in my book.
This will be resolved with a sharp drop into wave ‘5’ red,
or a large correction lower as I suspect in gold.

Tomorrow;
The new count for wave [c] of ‘4’ involves an ending diagonal.
This pattern will prove itself with a drop back below 22.00 again.
I will be patient here for that reversal off the upper trend line this week.