Good evening you fine folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is running out of options to the upside after another drop today.
The initial support level at 1.1115 was breached slightly,
this marks the high of wave ‘i’ of (c).
And the low of wave ‘iv’ must not break the high of wave ‘i’.
So the only bullish option left in my book,
is that wave ‘iii’ is now extending higher and will complete at or near the 1.1250 level over the coming days.
If the price falls below 1.1038 again,
that will trigger the alternate count and we can then concentrate on wave (i) down again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to hold above 1.1078.
the current bullish count will be saved with a break of 1.1200 again.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The decline in cable has now found some support at the previous fourth wave again today.
The price is near to completing wave ‘iii’ of (i) now,
although I would like to see a break of that support level at 1.3049 before a correction in wave ‘iv’ begins.
Any correction higher in wave ‘iv’ must hold below 1.33045 at wave ‘i’.
And then price should head lower again in wave ‘v’ of (i).
All going well wave (i) will complete this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete with a break of 1.3049,
and then wave ‘iv’ will correct sideways for the rest of the day.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The main wave count I am working with on the 4hr chart
is a very large triangle in wave [B] as shown.
This count is solid,
and at the moment I think wave (E) of [B] is underway, or just about to get underway.
That is where we stand on the short term chart.
If the recent high at 109.72 is broken again,
That new high will take the wave (D) label.
And then I will have to wait for another few sessions before wave (E) begins.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 109.72 to hold.
If we get a drop back below 109.19 again that will signal wave (iii) of [c] is underway.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The small triangle in the DOW is holding today.
The price did fall back into that rising trend line in wave ‘e’ of (iv).
And now price is rising again towards the highs as we approach the close.
If wave (v) is now underway,
then we should see a rally over the coming days towards the upper trend line at 28600 or so.
We don’t necesserily have to reach that high to compelte wave (v),
but the trend channel does suggest that target.
This actoin will compelte five waves up in wave [v] green.
And then the trap door will open again underneath us!
At this point,
it is looking very likely that the next few weeks will begin wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to break above 28340 as a minimum target.
The next bear market will begin with five waves down that breaks 27321.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is just waiting for that bearmarket to begin also!
Todays was another days of flat to no action at all.
And as such,
the comments from last night have not changed.
I think an impulsive move lower in stocks,
will be mirrored by an impulsive move higher in gold.
This will come in the form of wave ‘iii’ of (i) to the upside.
I have altered the count slightly this evening to reflect that count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ up to regain control of the action with a push above 1486 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude created another very slight new high today
in an ever decelerating rally in wave (c).
Momentum on all charts seems to be flat to turning lower again.
This creates a bearish divergence in momentum.
And this should be followed in short order by a sharp move lower in wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
It would be good if wave (i) could get started this week.
Wave ‘i’ of (i) will likely push back below 58.00 again to turn the tide of the rally.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It looks like the S&P will put in another new high this week if this short term count holds.
It should prove the be the last high for a very long time though!
Wave ‘iv’ of (v) most likely complete a small flat correction today.
And the move higher off that low is now labelled as wave ‘v’ of (v).
A break of 3200 will be enough to call this rally done,
but the larger trend channel will allow for a push up towards 3240 or so.
Give the dismal momentum setup on both the daily and 4hr charts,
I am not sure the market could manage that much though!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [v] to complete this week.
A drop back below 3155 again will signal wave (i) down has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is also dead in the water again today.
Given the action lately,
it feels like people have forgotten that there is a precious metal market out there still.
This is a little tongue in cheek I know,
but a market that is bottoming after a long drawn out sell off
is usually forgotten about in the news.
And has become unfashionable to touch.
So this anecdotal evidence fits with the idea that we are forming a large low in the metals now.
A little bit of impulsive action to the upside will go a long way to confirming a larger bullish turn now!
Tomorrow;
I have show another view on wave ‘i’ up today.
It is possible that wave ‘i’ completed at the high of 17.10 after a long triangle.
The price fell in three waves off that high today.
So,
if we see a rally above 17.10 again,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ up has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are again lower today but we have not hit that confirmation level at 127.89 yet.
Unless we get a break of that level,
I cannot rule out the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
For the moment the main wave count is on track.
If we see an acceleration lower to break 126.99 at the previous wave [iv],
that will confirm the top is in and we are now falling into a larger wave [iii] down.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) push below 127.89.