Good evening folks, I hope you are all well and happy.
here is the weekend video for your entertainment!
And along with that I present a chart of the daily sentiment index for gold.
Straight into the mix this evening.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
After spiking to a new high at 1.1199 late last night in wave ‘iii’ of (c),
EURUSD has fallen sharply off that level again today.
The price did breach the high of wave ‘i’ at 1.1115 again this evening,
so the straight forward five wave rally into wave (c)
is hanging in the balance now.
There is a chance that wave ‘iv’ of (c) will trace out a triangle over the coming days,
that will pull the final low for wave ‘iv’ out above the wave ‘i’ high.
and then we will see if wave ‘v’ continues higher again.
Monday;
Watch for a rise back above the 1.1115 level at wave ‘i’ to begin wave ‘iv’.
We should see the final high for wave (c) next week.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Yesterdays spike low did end a fourth wave correction as the pattern suggested.
The price rallied up above the target at 1.3380,
reaching a high of 1.3513 late last night.
This action seems like a blow off top at the end of an impulsive pattern.
And I have labelled the high as wave ‘v’ of (c).
Todays declines could be the beginning of wave (i) down,
as the action off the high is reasonably impulsive so far.
If this is the case,
then we will see a larger five wave decline throughout next week in wave (i) down.
Monday;
Watch for the high at 1.3513 to hold.
Wave ‘ii’ down should create a lower high early next week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is retreating off its rally today also.
The high of the session still counts as a [b] wave,
with wave [c] down now expected to complete a three wave decline in wave ‘A’.
The alternate count calls for the same decline into the 107.00 area,
but at one degree higher in wave ‘C’ as shown.
This decline would be the final move lower to complete a larger wave (E).
If this alternate is correct,
then the end of the triangle wave (E) is nearer than I thought.
Monday;
Watch for the wave [b] high to hold and this decline to continue lower in a five wave pattern.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The Market is reacting lower against that new all time high today.
The price is down sharply off that level,
and holding there as we reach the close this evening.
Every time I see the market completing a pattern in five waves,
and hitting a wave equality level as it has done between waves [i] and [v].
I am compelled to look the opposite way for a reversal pattern to develop in the near future.
So here we stand again at a completed pattern.
We will see next week if this evenings decline develops into something larger as shown.
And if we can build a bearish signal again to the downside.
Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below that new high at 28290,
lets see if wave [i] will continue lower over the coming week.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is surely not playing ball at all with me these days.
And despite that fact,
I remain hopeful that the low is now in place at 1458 last week.
We have not see the action that is needed to break out of this corrective funk yet.
But what has happened,
is that gold has completely disappeared from the headlines,
with interest in the market now demolished by the correction.
Also,
bullish sentiment figures are now hovering down to around 30% over the last month.
All of which points to a bottoming market.
What we need now is some confirming price action on the short term chart.
Monday;
Watch for a push back above 1486 again to begin wave ‘iii’.
The lows at 1458 must hold.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude popped back above the $60 level today for the first time since September.
the price is holding below that high this evening,
but we have yet to see an impulse wave lower begin off wave [ii].
Crude has put in a number of new highs over the last few weeks,
all of which were followed by a sharp move lower off those levels.
The market continues to trace out a wedge pattern into these highs in wave (c),
but I believe that the next sharp move down will begin a larger decline in wave (i) of [iii] as shown.
Monday;
Watch for a move lower in wave (i) to begin next week.
There are a number of pivot highs and lows around that 58.00 level.
So I expect a break through that level will signal wave (i) has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P also reached the level of equality between waves [i] and [v] today.
The market has dropped off that high again this evening,
so we will have to see how this develops next week.
Wave [v] of ‘5’ seems to have a completed pattern in place
as shown on the short term chart.
And of course we have a reached an over-bought extreme in momentum on the 4hr chart again.
So we should expect at least a corrective decline over the coming week,
if this decline traces out five wave down,
then it will be timr to get interested on the downside again.
Monday;
Watch for wave (i) down to begin,
with a drop back towarsd 3100 again in five waves.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is still holding above the recent lows at 16.52 today.
The short term action looks corrective in wave ‘ii’,
with the possibility that we will see another small drop to a higher low
to complete a three wave decline in wave ‘ii’ early on Monday.
If this correction in wave ‘ii’ is followed by a rally above 17.30 again,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 16.52 and then turn higher in wave ‘iii’.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
I have fleshed out the alternate count for bonds today on the short term chart,
following that sharp rally this afternoon.
The action looks impulsive so far,
so if the price breaks 129.40 again next week,
that will trigger the alternate count and we can look higher in wave ‘c’ again.
Otherwise the bearish outlook will remain intact until that happens.
Monday;
Watch for 129.40 to hold at wave ‘ii’.
Wave ‘iii’ must turn lower again to stay with the bearish short term count.
I hope you have a great weekend.
God bless you all.
enda.