Good evening folks, the Lord’s Blessings to you all.

The net long positioning on the Nasdaq 100 by asset managers and leveraged funds is at a record high. When a trade becomes this crowded, how long until things reverse course? – David Rosenberg.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

It’s hard to nail down what exactly is happening here in EURUSD.
The decline off the top is not a perfect example of a five wave structure.
I can still read it that way,
but I will admit that its now perfect.

The internal structure in wave (i) would benefit from another step down to complete.
And maybe we will see that again tomorrow.

For the moment,
we have a small correction higher building off Fridays lows now.
And I am allowing for wave (ii) to get underway now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to hold at 1.0721.
Wave (ii) should track higher towards 1.0850 again in three waves as shown.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The price has traced out three waves up today that completed below the wave ‘i’ low at 1.2602.
The price then turned sharply lower off the session high.
We can label wave ‘iv’ of (i) now complete at todays high,
and if that is correct,
then wave ‘v’ of (i) should continue lower to break 1.2500 again.
this will complete five waves down in wave (i),
and we can look for a low above 1.2400 by midweek.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to hold at 1.2602.
Wave ‘v’ must fall to a new low and break 1.2500 again when complete.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I have switched to the alternate count for USDJPY tonight.
the rally off the recent low is just large enough now to suggest a different pattern is unfolding here.

The alternate count involves a three wave decline in wave [a] complete at 141.60.
And now wave [b] is tracing out three waves up.
Wave (a) of [b] should be near to complete at todays highs.
And wave (b) will then fall back to 144.00 again in this scenario.

The high today came within a whisker of the 5-0% retracement level of wave [a] already,
So there is even a chance that wave [b] is closer to completing that I have suggested here.
We will know tomorrow when we see the reaction off the top of wave (a).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to top out and then wave (B) to fall back into the 144.00 area again in three waves.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW is squeezing the very most out of this wave ‘v’ rally now,
with wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ now hitting a small new high for the pattern today.
This pattern is overextended to an historic degree now,
and I think I went over that last week.
But it is worth repeating;
the last time the market reached this extended degree we saw an extreme reaction off the top in short order.
This could very well happen this week given the current situation here.

Tomorrow;
The DOW has been running at stall speed over the last week even with todays new high.
I am of the opinion that the technical situation is resting on a knife edge now,
with the very real prospect of a big down day now growing exponentially.

I cant give any claim on the short term action over the next few days given that this pattern is complete here,
but just watch out for a possible spike lower that could break this rally soon.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold continued its slide today and the price is now back below the 2000 handle again.
The fact that the previous wave (a) high has been broken now does favor the new wave count.
And the next major support to the price here lies at the wave (B) low at 1931.
I am looking at that level as the confirmation for the larger wave [c] pattern now.
And I think wave (iii) of [c] should hit that 1931 level if this pattern is correct.
So I am watching this new decline with interest,
and the further down it goes,
the closer we get to that confirmation level at 1931.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to fall into that support at 1931 and then we can look for a correction higher into wave (iv) later this week.
The wave (i) low must hold at 2009 for this pattern to remain valid.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The crude price has been pretty flat today holding below the 72.00 handle again.
Overall the price seems to be moving higher into wave (a) of [iv] as suggested.
But the internal pattern for wave (a) is still up for debate.
I am suggesting that wave ‘b’ of (a) is now underway here.
And wave ‘b’ should form a higher low above 70.00 tomorrow.
Wave ‘c’ should then turn higher again to hit the 75.00 area.
That will complete three waves up in wave (a) by the end of this week if all goes to plan.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete a higher low above 70.00 as shown.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is closing higher this evening as wave (v) of [c] makes a slight new high again today.
Wave (v) has now completed a five wave internal pattern.
And it is only a matter of time for this market to reverse and drop back below the recent left shoulder at 4540 again at wave (iv).
When that happens I can look for a five wave pattern lower to begin in wave (i) again.

For the moment I am playing a waiting game here as wave ‘2’ completes close below the all time high.
If wave ‘3’ begins this week,
It sould be better for that reversal to be quite a sharp initial decline.
IF that happens,
then we can be pretty sure that this wave ‘2’ rally is finally done.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of the wave (iv) low again to start the reversal process.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Last week, silver lost 12% in a very unexpected and impulsive move.
The pattern I was following called for a drop into wave ‘ii’ at the very least,
and I am sticking with that pattern again tonight.
But I must admit that last weeks drop does fit well with that alternate count on the 4hr chart also.
So we can’t rule that out at all.

Wave ‘ii’ must hold above the previous wave (ii) low at 21.87 for this bullish count to remain valid.
And in this scenario,
wave ‘iii’ must begin this week with a sharp rally back to new highs over the coming weeks.
So we are at a very interesting point in the pattern here for silver.
A break of support at 21.87 again will change the outlook here in a big way.
It is make or break time for the main pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 21.87 to hold and wave ‘ii’ to make a final low very soon.
Wave ‘iii’ up should begin immediately in order to confirm the bullish pattern.