Hi there and good evening to you all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
I have fleshed out the alternate count a little more this evening after a pretty flat trade today.
This alternate wave (c) would allow for a rally up to 1,1250 again
to complete a larger wave [ii] green,
and that action will setup for a decline in wave [iii] again.
Wave (c) overall should trace out a five wave structure higher.
The rally off the low at 1.0980 can be viewed as a five wave pattern in wave ‘i’ pink.
This is followed by a three wave decline so far in a possible wave ‘ii’ of (c).
A break of 1.1115 will signal wave ‘iii’ of (c) is underway.
Tomorrow ;
The alternate count will be triggered with a break of 1.1115.
While a break of 1.1039 will confirm the current wave count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable did drop sharply early this morning to complete wave ‘iv’ pink as expected.
The price did not quite reach the previous low at 1.3103 as an expanded falt correction.
So wave ‘iv’ now looks like a running flat which completed at 1.3104.
The rise off that low should continue tomorrow in wave ‘v’ of (c).
And the target area at 1.3380 is a real possibility now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave hold above 1.3104 and break 1.3216 at a minimum.
Wave ‘v’ should create a five wave rally from here.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The price range in USDJPY is still contracting today which favors the triangle idea in wave ‘v’.
After a full overnight and normal session today
the price barely budged 15 pips in either direction!
I have labelled the triangle as complete up to wave (d) this evening.
The triangle needs one more push higher in wave (e) overnight to complete the triangle.
Wave (e) must complete below 108.85 at the wave (v) high.
And then we can expect a drop in wave [c] to complete wave ‘A’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to complete below 108.85.
A move below 108.42 again will signal wave [c] has begun.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is down today slightly after a pretty corrective move so far.
This action fits with the idea that wave ‘ii’ is still in force.
And todays drop is a small corrective wave within wave ‘ii’ pink.
This count expects a further rise to a lower high tomorrow
which should complete below 28036 again in wave ‘ii’.
And then we should see a sharp drop begin in wave ‘iii’ of (i) before the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete.
Wave ‘iii’ down should begin with a break of 27700.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is edging higher today but without any confirmation of the beginning of wave ‘iii’ yet.
This leaves the door open for that stubborn alternate count.
The session high did reach 1472.90 a short while ago,
and that high did pip above the previous lows market by the arrow.
This is a slight hint in favor of the bullish count,
as it rules out a clean five wave decline off the high marked wave ‘i’.
I have been very easy going on gold for the last while,
We do need to see some follow through now though to begin wave ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1460 to hold again at wave ‘ii’.
wave ‘iii’ needs to push above 1484 pretty soon.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is down also today but we have yet to see any real acceleration lower into wave ‘iii’.
There is a looming short term alternate count,
which will allow for wave ‘v’ of (c) to push back into resistance again before turning down properly and for good!
But if we see a drop below 57.65 again that should rule out the alternate count,
and favor the drop into wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 59.85 again.
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 57.60.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It looks like wave ‘ii’ is still in force in the S&P also tonight.
The price is pretty sideways today,
and I can’t discern any clear pattern in the action.
it is possible that there is a triangle within wave ‘ii’ in place,
this will allow for wave ‘ii’ to create another lower high below 3150 again
before turning down into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to top out and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’.
3150 must hold,
and if we see a break of 3115 again that will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is diverging higher today after a completely refusing to break to a new low as expected.
I am going out on a limb here,
but I wonder if wave (c) is complete at that last low of 16.52?
If that is the case,
then we should see wave ‘i’ of (i) push above 17.30 again by the end of the week.
A bullish higher low above 16.52 over the coming week will be a real opportunity to catch the next leg up in wave [v].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) to continue higher tomorrow and 16.52 must hold from here.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
I have switched to the alternate count today just to test a theory about the size of the next turn lower into wave [iii].
If this is correct,
then we are on the verge of a big move lower now.
Bonds are tracking higher today in the final sub-wave within wave ‘ii’ pink.
This action is drawing close to another bearish signal now.
If the price completes wave ‘ii’ as expected at 129.40,
and then turns lower again to break 128.63.
this will signal a bigger turn down is underway into wave ‘iii’ of ‘iii’ of [iii].
And if that plays out like it think it will,
then wave (iii) could easily take us down to 124.00 in short order.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete at 129.40.
And then we should see a turn down into wave ‘iii’ begin by tomorrow evening.