Good evening again, what a day its been!

may the Lord bless you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

This is the last chance for EURUSD to turn higher within this wave count.
Todays drop can be viewed as a final wave ‘c’ decline to close out wave (b).
Now it is absolutely imperative that wave (c) rally from here starting tomorrow.
At the very least we need to see a break above the wave ‘b’ high at 1.13 to signal wave (c) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the low at 1.1186 to hold again as wave (c) turns higher to break 1.1300.
If we do see a break of 1.1300 again,
then I think wave (c) will punch above 1.1382 with ease after that.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have reverted to the alternate count on gbpusd this evening.
The reversal has failed into wave [ii] so far.
and even though todays decline has not broken to a new low,
it seems likely that wave ‘v’ of (v) will do that tomorrow.
There is nothing left to do but wait now for wave (v) to close out again.

Tomorrow;
The minimum target for wave ‘v’ is 1.3194.
so lets see if wave ‘v’ will do that tomorrow.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is still moving quite well in the current short term pattern.
The price has risen into the upper trend channel line this evening and hit the 113.80 level.
this action should complete wave (c) of [ii],
and the next step in the pattern is for a decline back into wave (i) of [iii] over the coming days.
If the price falls back below 112.53 again,
that will signal wave (i) of [iii] is in force.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to top out and then spike lower to begin wave (i) of [iii] down.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

While I have given up on the bearish option for the S&P today,
the DOW is still moving in line with a deep second wave retracement here.
The market has reached above the 62% retracement level today
and at the moment the rally has stopped short of breaking the small wave ‘ii’ high at 35950.
So now the question has arrived,
is this a real impulse wave lower now complete at wave [ii],
or is there another new high left in the tank to create the all too frequent Christmas rally effect.

I don’t know the answer yet.
The S&P sure has ditched the recent declines as a correction,
but the DOW has not given up on this reversal pattern yet.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to opt out near this resistance level.
If the bearish count is correct here,
Then the market should spike lower to begin wave [iii] down pretty soon.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is holding very close to that 1780 handle over the last few days.
The action does raise the question of a triangle for wave [b],
rather than the simple three wave correction as shown.
If the triangle is correct,
then another days trade should be enough to complete it.

That will open the way for a decline into wave [c] by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
A decline back below 1762 will rule out the triangle and will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down is underway.

In both counts on the hourly chart, then price must hold below 1808.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The pattern in crude is again well within the scope of a correction in wave ‘4’ as shown.
We have three waves up now in place.
And the price has reached the previous wave (iv) high at 72.70.
This leaves us at a crossroads again.
If wave ‘4’ is now done,
then we must see a decline begin in wave ‘5’ over the coming days.

The bearish case is in play as long as we see a decline begin off this wave ‘4’ high.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ to top out very soon.
The wave [b] low lies at 65.50,
so a break of that level will signal wave [i] of ‘5’ has begun.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Todays rally has ruled out the previous bearish count showing a series of impulsive patterns lower underway.
This count is best explained on the 4hr chart.
The decline into the recent lows is now counted as a complex correction in wave ‘iv’.
The price never broke the wave ‘i’ high at 4377.
And of course the rebound today is pretty clearly impulsive and fits with the rally in wave ‘v’ of (v).

The outlook here is for a continue rally to a new high in wave ‘v’ of (v).
We do have another target level for wave (v) at 4788.
this level marks where wave (i) and (v) reach equality.
This level also marks a closing of the trend channel again.
So I will not be surprised to see a serious reversal begin off that level also.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to continue to trace out a five wave pattern higher as shown to a new high,
that marks the minimum target level for wave ‘v’.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The action in silver is still very stubborn today as we have not seen a spike off the wave ‘ii’ low to signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
A break above 23.00 again will be enough to call wave (i) underway,
but the market is very reluctant to go that way yet.

Tomorrow;
I really cant add much to the count until we get some definitive action to either confirm or rule out the main count.
So I will wait on tomorrow trade to see if wave ‘iii’ of (i) begins.