Good evening.
It’s been a long and trying day, and that is without the wild moves in the market!
I did not get a chance to record the video yet,
so I will leave it until tomorrow.
So here we go for another stab at it.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has now created a three wave decline into today lows.
This action is in line with both of the wave counts shown,
so at the moment,
both wave counts are still viable.
The key level which will decide between both counts is 1.1115.
If we break that level from here that will trigger the alternate count
and we can then expect wave (c) to continue up to 1.1250.
Monday;
Watch for 1.1115 to hold.
If the price falls below 1.0980 that will rule out the alternate count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has also dropped in three waves into the low of the session today.
This decline is viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (v).
The price reached 1.3100 and the price is up off the lows this evening again.
If we see a rally back up above 1.3167 again at wave ‘iii’,
that will signal wave ‘v’ of (v) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to continue higher and break the wave ‘iii’ high.
There is a pretty wide target area for wave ‘v’ to complete.
I expect at least 1.3200,
but we could see a rally up to 1.3380 at the upper resistance.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY fell in three waves off the high at wave (a) and then spiked to a lower high this afternoon.
I have shown waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ complete after that action.
And the decline this evening should be wave ‘c’ to complete wave (b).
Wave ‘c’ of (b) should drop below 108.46 to complete wave (b).
Wave (c) should then rally back to the upper trend channel line again to close out the larger wave [b].
Monday;
Wave (c) should begin Monday morning after a small break of 108.49.
109.13 is the target for wave (c).
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Easy come easy go eh!
I did not expect the correction in wave (ii) to retrace as much as it has
that is for sure.
the market roared back again today as the speculative bit is firmly back in the teeth.
It is still very possible that this is only a correction higher in wave (ii).
The market is sitting at the 78% retracement level of wave (i) this evening.
If we drop sharply again on Monday then the bearish setup is intact.
The spike higher this afternoon came after the blowout jobs report was released.
So that adrenaline boost may already be wearing off now as we reach the close of the session.
Monday;
The market has chewed up the jobs numbers now and I expect them to throw them out on Monday!
Lets see if we get an impulsive decline in wave ‘i’ of (iii) by Monday evening.
I have shown the main alternate wave count this evening also.
This involves a larger three wave expanded flat in wave (iv).
An impulsive move lower on Monday will rule this out.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold took another hit after that stock market rally today.
Yet we still hold onto a higher low above 1450 this evening.
The drop this week has also created a three wave pattern,
so this can also be viewed as a correction within a developing rally.
I admit,
we are close to a reckoning point in gold now,
but so long as we are holding a series of higher lows,
I am willing to give the bullish pattern the benefit of the doubt.
Monday;
Watch for 1450 to hold again.
And with any luck we will get a rally in wave ‘iii’ to break 1484 and save the bullish count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude spiked higher today after a three wave decline early in the trade.
The price almost hit the upper trend channel line at the high,
before dropping off again this evening.
we have yet to see that long awaited five wave decline to begin the next leg down in wave [iii] yet.
But as with all corrections,
the price will travel just long enough
to convince enough people of the move before turning back into the main trend again.
This correction in wave [ii]
will prove to be a prime example of that dynamic I think.
The behavior of the price action of late is corrective in nature,
and right now I am leaning towards a possible triple combination complex correction higher.
This wave will be retraced pretty quickly when wave [iii] down gets into gear.
And this will be sooner rather than later.
Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete very soon.
I get the feeling that next week will bring another sharp move lower to begin wave (i) of [iii].
Wave (i) should break that initial support level at 54.80 later next week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is horribly close to breaking to a new high this evening
after that sharp spike higher this afternoon.
For the moment I am viewing this rally as wave (ii).
Wave (ii) has traced out a three wave rally into todays highs.
With wave ‘b’ of (ii) creating an expanded flat correction.
It would be remiss of me to rule out the alternate count at this point.
this allows for a larger wave (iv) as an expanded flat itself.
With a rally to a final high in wave (v) now underway.
If the market decides to go higher in the next few days as per the alternate count,
I just cant see that rally in wave (v) lasting for any time at all really.
So;
I will remain vigilant for a turn lower next week in both cases.
The alternate count may break to a new high,
but that will not last.
Monday;
Watch for the high at 3154 to hold
and wave (iii) down to begin with a spike lower early Monday.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has confirmed the alternate count today with a break of 16.63.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) is now in force,
and we should see a drop into about 16.30 to complete that wave early next week.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) has already traced out three of the final five waves expected.
So we should see one more drop on Monday to finish wave ‘v’.
Monday;
Once the price hits the 16.30 level after one last spike lower,
then I am going to turn my attention higher again for wave (i) to begin.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
We now have a five wave decline in place off the wave [ii] high at 130.10.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘i’ of (i) now in place.
We should see wave ‘ii’ of (i) correct higher on Monday.
Wave ‘ii’ will likely hit the 129.50 level before wave ‘iii’ turns lower again.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to trace out a three wave correction higher for at least Monday,
possibly into Tuesday also.
Then we should see a drop in wave ‘iii’ of (i) for the remainder of next week.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break 127.95 again.
I pray you all have an enjoyable weekend.
I will see you all again on Monday evening again.
I will get the video up tomorrow evening I expect so keep an eye out for that.
God Bless,
and God’s speed to you.
enda.