Good evening all you fine people.

And may the Blessings of the Lord of Hosts be with you all tonight.

Here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The shine came off the euro rally slightly today,
so far the decline is only in three waves with a reasonable spike off the low of the session.
It know for sure that this rally is well overextended now,
but I will need more than todays weakness to call a turn in place,
but I think this week is a good candidate for a turn given the extreme sentiment readings I mentioned last week.
both for the EURO and against the USD.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if this small reversal can develop impulsively to the downside.
I would like to see five waves down before the end of the week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The drop off the high in cable today was a more convincing candidate for a turn.
It is possible that the rally off the session low is in three waves also.
The move has a large bar lower in the middle of the move.
The price did break that shelf of support at the 1.3290 area also.
so I am suggesting this pattern as an impulsive decline in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’.
This depends on a reversal lower again tomorrow into wave ‘iii’ of (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to drop below 1.3225 again tomorrow to confirm wave ‘iii’ is underway.
I want to see wave (i) down break below 1.30 before the end of this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Todays action in USDJPY is much too unclear to make any sense of it at all.
I am still erring on the bullish side at the moment,
the main reason being the horrendously over bearish stance against the USD in general.
This alone is big enough reason for me to hold bullish for the foreseeable future.

AS for the short term pattern,
I will just have to wait and see what develops over the next few sessions to see if a favorable pattern comes out.

Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above 103.70 and trace out a five wave pattern higher this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I could start to get a little bit giddy here with the prospects of a top in the alternate count.
As you can see I have labelled the alternate count circled in red.
We have see a three wave move higher over the last few days in a possible wave (iii).
And now a correction to begin wave (iv)??

It may prove to be a long shot,
but it is worth tracking so long as it remains a viable option I think.

As for the main count,
that pattern is calling for another rally out to a new high this week
and an acceleration in that move also as part of wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Todays trade is not really a vote in favor of that idea.

Tomorrow;
If the price falls into that lower red trend line and rallies again off that level,
then we are looking seriously at the alternate count again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I have taken the bull by the horns today and switched out the bullish alternate count.
The rally today brought us above the 1849 level again,
and that broke the previous low which was wave [i], now wave [a].

Todays rally has invalidated the previous count,
and now we are looking at the possibility of wave (4) in place at the recent low.

I think we need a larger corrective structure off the wave (i) high to complete wave (ii).
Last fridays decline is much to small to count as wave (ii).
So I will be looking for that correction over the next few days to complete a bullish signal off the low at wave (4),
and hopefully that will offer a reasonable setup into a rally in wave (5) this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (ii) to drop back below 1850 again to begin a three wave decline.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil is also showing all the signs of a tipping point lately,
but like a mirror of the USD at the moment,
the pattern in the short term is a little confused at the moment and there is room for doubt.
I will have to wait for an impulsive move lower to form off the top to be more confident.
If the USD is about to gain strength,
then we should not be too far from that point either.
There is the small matter of a completely lopsided sentiment setup also,
with an extreme bullishness indicated by the COT data lately which I showed last week.

Tomorrow;
44.00 marks the first level of interest to signal a reversal.
A break of that level after an impulsive move will be a big red flag to this rally.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

You must admit that the narrowing range of the recent action is pretty interesting as an ending diagonal pattern.
And so tonight I am looking at this possibility closely.
The action in wave [v] can be broken into a series of three wave moves so far.
And if this is correct,
then we are looking at wave (iv) develop today.
Wave (iv) might extend a little lower and break the wave (i) high at 3656 tomorrow.

As for wave (v),
that target level at 3720 looks very promising in terms of the ending diagonal also, at that point wave [i] will equal wave [v].
So we may have a nice picture developing now.

Tomorrow;
I will be following this pattern as long as the market does not break out or break down!
The narrowing range of action should continue as we make one last high later in the week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is favoring a more bullish setup than gold right now.
The spike higher today may be wave (i) of [iii].
In this case we should see another correction to a higher low above 23.50 by Wednesdays close.
This will setup for a larger advance into wave [iii] next week.

This pattern depends on the recent low at wave [ii] holding at 23.50.
If that level breaks,
then I will revert to a larger wave [ii] green in play.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete and wave (ii) to drop back below 24.00 again.
23.50 must hold.