It’s been a real mixed bag of a day!

Some things went our way and some against, but ain’ t that life in a nutshell!

But the action is still interesting none the less so lets get into it.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has hit the target area for wave ‘ii’ to complete today,
by breaking the previous corrective high at 1.1096.
The price has now traced out a three wave expanded flat correction in wave ‘ii’ pink.
The final rally to break 1.1096 has traced out a clear five wave pattern.
so the internal pattern has a 3,3,5 internal structure,
which is inline with an expanded flat correction.
To top it all off,
the price has now fallen back off the high after completing the pattern.

So,
we now have a reasonable bearish signal in place for EURUSD at the wave ‘ii’ high.
And I will be watching for wave ‘iii’ down t begin for the rest of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.1115.
A break below 1.1000 again should signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has rallied up to the the expected target area for wave ‘iii’ of (v) today.
There is a possible five wave pattern in place i wave ‘iii’ now,
so wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ should complete the larger pattern by the end of the week.
And then I will begin to look to the downside again to begin wave [i] of ‘3’.

Once this rally completes in wave [c],
it could be a long way down from these highs!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to complete a rally in five waves up to about 1.3200 before turning lower again.
Wave ‘iv’ of (v) must hold above 1.2952 tomorrow.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has rallied in three waves today off the wave [a] low at 108.43.
It seems that wave [b] is now in force,
and we should see a corrective lower high develop now in wave [b] over the coming days.

I am labeling today’s rally as wave (a) of [b],
wave (b) and (c) are now expected to hold the price in a sideways grind over the coming few days.
And wave [b] must complete below 109.71 after a three wave corretion.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [b] to fall back into 108.50 again in three waves.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The decline off the high was very rapid indeed,
and in a rapid move like this,
it is very possible that the internal structure of the wave is just not that pronounced on the chart.
The retracement is close to hitting the 50% mark now.

With that in mind,
I am allowing for an alternate count this evening
which shows wave (i) already complete at Tuesdays low.
The rally into this evenings highs is in three waves so far.
So,
this can be viewed as wave (ii) already complete.

If this alternate count is correct,
then we should prepare for the possibility that wave (iii) will begin any day now.
And that has the potential to move rapidly lower again,
and cause some serious shock-waves in the market.

This scenario has a pretty good probability level,
so tomorrows action will be crucial to decide between both short term counts.

Tomorrow;
Watch for at least a decline in wave ‘v’ of (i) to get underway again.
If the alternate count is correct,
then wave ‘i’ of (iii) could begin tomorrow, also in a similar fashion.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The action in the gold market today has revealed very little extra in the short term pattern.
The price has fallen slightly,
but again this small decline looks corrective.
This could well be another small building block towards a larger move higher in wave (i) over the coming week.
And so long as the market continue to create higher lows,
however small,
Wave (i) up is still my favored count in the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for another leg up in wave ‘iii’ to begin
this should move the price towards a five wave pattern in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
1450 must continue to hold.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action in crude these days is as wild as you could ever have imagined!
The market is whipsawing up and down and up again in wave [ii] over the last month.
And after all that,
we have barely budged in the price higher in any meaningful way.
This action is the very definition of a correction.
So I remain convinced that wave [iii] down will retrace all of the recent grind to the upside.

Wave (i) of [iii] may have been ruled out for the moment after todays rally.
The rally looks set to create another slight new high tomorrow.
But it is only a matter of time now,
before this market just gives up completely and wave [iii] down begins.

Tomorrow;
The short term count has changed for wave (c) of [ii] now.
It is looking more likely that wave (c) is an ending diagonal,
with one more high in wave ‘v’ of (c) now left to complete wave [ii].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The short term action in the S&P fits a five wave decline pattern a little better than the DOW at the moment.
This is more evident on the cash chart than my derivative chart.
And so Tuesdays low is labelled wave (i) down now.
The rally off that low is in three waves into todays highs.
This should complete wave (ii) and wave (iii) down should now get underway off that high.
Possibly even tomorrow.

Wave (ii) is only a few points from hitting the 61.8% retracement level at todays highs.
This fact alone gives me reason to believe that wave (ii) is now done,
and wave (iii) down is ready to get underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin and carry the price back towards 3080 again.
If we see another small impulse wave build off the wave (ii) high,
that will signal wave (iii) has begun.

The action might get rapid again tomorrow so watch out.
Lets see if wave get five waves down again in wave ‘i’ of (iii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The drop in silver today has forced me to switch to the alternate count now and postpone the bullish outlook for wave (i) for a few days.
The action is impulsive to the downside again,
and this suggests wave ‘v’ of (c) is now in force.
this should be the final decline to compelte a five wave pattern in wave (c).
And with that,
complete the larger correction in wave [iv] at last!

The minumum target for wave ‘v’ lies at 16.63,
a slight break of that level will be enought to satisfy the pattern.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete at about 16.60.
Its been a brutal corrective phase over the last few months,
I do think this will lead to an explosive rally to come though.