Good evening again, what a day its been!

may the Lord bless you all tonight.

From sentiment trader:

@sentimentrader

The probability of a bear market was/is the highest since 1968.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am switching to a three wave pattern higher in wave [a] tonight.
The overall move off the low now is just a little more fitting if we call this a three wave move higher.
Wave (c) should trace out a five wave move itself,
and wave ‘ii’ of (c) should be complete at todays higher low.

Monday;
EURUSD is very slow to move out of wave (D) and it seems like and age that I have been speaking of it,
but I do think finally the rally is coming.

Watch for wave (b) to hold at 1.1235,
and then wave ‘iii’ of (C) to continue higher.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

It is a similar story for cable today.
the action this week is hinting at a possible reversal higher into wave [ii],
but so far the rally has not taken place.

we still have a higher low in place at todays lows,
so I am allowing this pattern to play out and see if wave ‘c’ will come on Monday.

The alternate on the short term chart calls for a triangle in wave ‘iv’,
followed by a decline into wave ‘v’ over the coming days.
A break of 1.3194 will signal that count is correct.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to rally out above 1.3371 to complete wave (a).
A break of 1.3194 will trigger the alternate count.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has taken another hit this evening after correcting higher in three waves into the session high.
Wave ‘iii’ down may be underway now,
and a break of 112.53 will confirm this count.

If I am correct here,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] will accelerate lower over the coming week.
And we should make good progress towards that 107.00 target area by this time next week.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 113.70.
and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to break 112.50 again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

So far the idea of a three wave correction higher into wave [ii] is holding.
Todays action has built a higher low after a possible expanded flat wave (b).
If wave (b) is complete now,
then wave (c) should get underway and rally in five waves towards the 50% retracement level at 35250.
This is an idealized pattern,
so there is room for error on that forecast!

Suffice to say,
if we see a clearly corrective lower high complete next week in wave [ii],
then we will see a big decline into wave [iii] come in before the Christmas break.
And that will be exciting for sure!

Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to hold above the lows at wave [i].
and wave (c0 should turn higher in five waves towards the target area,
wave [ii] should be complete by the end of next week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

1758 has not broken yet,
so the main count is holding on by a thread at this point.
Even so,
I think it is worth concentrating on the first alternate count now for wave ‘C’ down.

The action this week has been frustrating for sure,
but this evening the fog seems to be lifting slightly.
Wave ‘ii’ is moving towards a flat correction,
possibly a running flat that would complete below 1795 again.
And then a sharp decline into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [c] next week.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and then turn lower again into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
A break of 1758 again will confirm this count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is moving along reasonably well in line with the fourth wave correction as suggested.
It is still impossible to say what form this will take,
as we could easily extend this move sideways to form a triangle over multiple weeks of ranging action.
So it is a wait and see moment now as this correction develops.

Monday;
Watch for wave [b] to trace out three waves down to a higher low early next week.
Wave [c] up will then push above 70.00 again to complete a three wave correction.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P took a real hit today also and this is viewed as the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down.
The action off the top has not traced out a solid five waves down as the dow has,
so I am still a little on the fence here regarding the impulsive nature of the decline.
I do think it is likely that the market has topped,
but we need a large degree five wave decline to confirm that now.
And next week is the time to do just that.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to break below 4660 again,
that is where wave (iii) and (i) reach equality.

I do expect wave (iii) to push even lower than that,
4350 is where wave (iii) will reach 162% of wave (i).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is holding in that wave (c) decline all week,
this is much longer than I had anticipated for sure,
but I do think that this is the most likely outcome here.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) is tracing out a five wave pattern itself,
and that should complete with one last punch below 22.00 again to complete the overall decline.

I am not going to consider the alternate count unless we get a break of 21.40.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to step lower once more to complete the overall decline in wave (c) of [ii].
Wave [iii] up should begin next week.