Good evening again, what a day its been!

may the Lord bless you all tonight.

From sentiment trader:

@sentimentrader

The probability of a bear market was/is the highest since 1968.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

No change in EURUSD today.
Wave ‘ii’ is holding onto the price for another day it seems.
The action off the wave ‘i’ high if still very corrective looking.
And as long as 1.1235 holds,
then we are on for a rally into wave (iii) of [a] starting soon.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and then a rally back above 1.1382 to signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is taking its time turning higher into this second wave rally.
the price is tracing out another small correction in wave ‘b’ of (a) today.
I am looking for wave (a) to break above 1.3370 again in three waves as shown.
Wave ‘b’ is on course to trace out three waves down in a trend channel.
That should complete around 1.3237 again and then turn higher into wave ‘c’ by tomorrow evening.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a small higher low to complete in wave ‘b’ above 1.3194.
Wave ‘c’ should break above 1.3370 early next week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The action this week in USDJPY is pretty hard to unravel to be honest.
There are a number of wave combinations that would build this pattern,
but nothing is exactly favorable at the moment.
I am going to stick with the idea that wave [iii] down is underway,
but the price is tracing out a series of impulsive waves down to begin this pattern.

IF this is correct,
then we are looking at wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii) now.
And this pattern should lead to an acceleration lower into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] next week.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 113.70.
Wave ‘iii’ down will be confirmed with a break of 112.53.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

And along comes the rally, for no reason at all!

IT seems like the initial selloff into wave [i] is now done.
We do have a pretty solid five waves down now complete at Wednesdays lows.
And now today the rebound has traced out a three wave pattern higher.

If this count is correct,
then this rally should prove corrective to the upside and we should see an overall three wave pattern higher as shown.

Wave [ii] is looking like a 3,3,5 flat correction higher now.
Three waves up in wave (a) complete at todays highs.
Ideally we will see a three wave decline to a higher low tomorrow in wave (b).
And then a sharp rally in wave (c) lined up for next week.
I am looking at the gap between the previous fourth waves as the initial target.
This is also in the area of the 50% retracement level at 35200.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to complete soon below 35000.
Wave (b) should fall in three waves beginning tomorrow.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

At the moment this pattern in gold is leaning heavily towards the alternate count.
And the action in general seems to be stepping lower into wave [c] as shown.
the only issue here is that wave (iii) down has not accelerated lower yet.
In fact the decline has slowed today.
It is possible that wave ‘ii’ is tracing out a larger corrective pattern before turning lower again into wave ‘iii’.
But I will just have to see how it goes tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
If 1758 breaks that will confirm this pattern,
but just look out for a possible extended correction in wave ‘ii’.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I think we can say now that wave ‘3’ down is done at todays lows.
And now we can look higher in a correction in wave ‘4’.
The price has rebounded this evening and I view this as wave [a] of ‘4’.
Wave ‘4’ should trace out at least three waves higher,
although we all know that a fourth wave can take on a complex pattern easily.
We will see soon enough.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the lows at wave ‘3’ to hold and a three wave correction higher in wave ‘4’ to begin.
Wave ‘4’ should target between 69.40 and 72.80.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The rally in the S&P today has complicated matters a bit for this bearish count.
The price reached too high for the previous count to hold.
Now I am looking at a possible running flat wave (ii).
And the move lower off wave (ii) is wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii).
Of course this count is as bearish as the previous but we will need to see a serious decline begin again in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) either tomorrow,
or early next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave (ii) high to hold at 4650.
A break of that level will really hit this bearish count.

Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and then turn lower again to begin wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is refusing to put in even the smallest rebound this week!
The price is pinned to the floor at the moment,
and even todays action looks corrective again.

The price is moving ever closer to that invalidation line at 21.40,
and if we do break that level then we are looking at a decline into 18.00 again to complete the alternate count.
I would prefer that not to happen!
But that is a real possibility here.

Tomorrow;
I want wave (c) to hold above 21.40 and turn higher in an impulsive manner to begin wave [iii] up.
Lets see if that can happen tomorrow.