Good evening folks.

God’s Blessings to you all tonight, and welcome to a new week.

Bitcoin had an amazing rebound today after a major selloff last week.

I suspect this was driven by short covering to start with,

and the final push to a new high came on the back of buy the dip all in wild bullish sentiment in the market.

not a good recipe for solid future returns!

and just look at the position spread in the futures market.

Here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We came very close to breaking that 1.2010 signal line today but the price spiked lower before hitting that level.
I want to see some follow through on the downside tomorrow to begin wave [i] of ‘A’ of (D).

While the triangle that I am following in wave [B] will not be completely invalidated if we break that 1.2010 level,
it will be a strong hint that wave (C) of the triangle is still in force,
or wave [B] is favoring the alternate count shown on the 4hr and daily charts.

Tomorrow;
I would like to see wave [i] fall below 1.1800 very soon
to really kick off wave (D) of the triangle.
so that 1.2010 level is key tomorrow.
Lets see if we can fall below 1.1900 again to offer some relief to the short term count.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The action today did not confirm the turn into wave [c] of ‘D’ yet.
But the price action is definitely weak off the recent high,
which is expected as we make a top in wave [b].

I am on the hunt for a turn into wave [c] for a while now,
the 4hr momentum is suggesting that another decline is immanent.
and if wee a lower high develop this week,
that will be a good sign that the tide is about to turn into wave [c].

Tomorrow;
watch for a more impulsive decline below 1.3200 as the first signal that wave (i) down has begun.
A break of the wave ‘iv’ low at 1.3104 should confirm wave [c] is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I am chasing a third wave rally to push us back above the 106.00 handle this week.
So far the rallies have been stunted and fallen short of the target.
There is a reasonable chance that todays small move higher is the beginning of something bigger,
but I will have to see some action soon to confirm that.

Tomorrow;
I have changed the short term count today to show a series of three impulsive waves off the low.
This is a very bullish count for sure,
so if we don’t see some follow through this week,
then I will have to rethink my whole approach.

Things are getting tight in USDJPY now!

Watch for a push above 104.76 to begin wave ‘i’ of (iii).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW is still holding that higher low above 29160 at wave [iv] today.
Wave [v] is still in play at the moment.
The market slipped again today to create a larger wave (ii) of [v] as shown,
but I do expect wave (iii) of [v] to push higher for the rest of the week,
but that wave [iv] low must hold for this count to remain valid.

Tomorrow;
Any move back above the weave ‘b’ high at 30000 again will signal wave (iii) has begun.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has found a temporary low today at 1764.
The market seems to be making some attempt to rally now.
At the moment I am counting any rally off this low as a fourth wave correction within wave ‘C’.
Wave [iv] of ‘C’ of (4) has an initial target at 1818 where the previous fourth wave lies.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [iv] to hold above 1764 and begin to track higher tomorrow.
Its hard to know what pattern wave [iv] will take,
but since wave [ii] was a zigzag pattern,
I suspect we could see a triangle form in wave [iv] a holding pattern for a few days.
I will have to wait and see though.

Wave [iv] must complete below 1849 at the wave [i] low.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The trade today does not really shine much light on the larger pattern yet.
We have a five wave pattern in place in wave ‘C’.
But the final leg in wave [v] of ‘C’ is still in question at the moment.
The action off the top looks corrective so far,
and it could be a volatile week give the opec meetings are happening this week.
The market seems to be holding right now before deciding the path ahead.
I am aiming for a top this week in wave ‘C’.
and then working on the downside again next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a move back below 41.66 this week to signal wave [v] of ‘C’ is done.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave (ii) is a messy pattern indeed after todays choppy action.
but I think we can call wave (ii) as a triple combination pattern.
With an overall 3,3,3 pattern in place at todays lows.

The price is higher off that low this evening,
but only a break above 3656 again will signal wave (iii) of [v] has begun.

The initial target for the top in wave [v] lies at 3722 where wave [i] and [v] reach equality.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave [iv] low at 3551 to hold.
wave ‘i’ of (iii) should break above 3656 to begin wave (iii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver created a new low today in wave [iii] of ‘3’ early this morning reaching 21.88 at the low.
the market rallied off that low to begin wave [iv] green.
Todays initial rally is labelled wave (a) of [iv],
with a three wave pattern higher expected overall as shown.

Wave [iv] should complete below 23.54 on the very top end.
this level marks the previous wave (iv) high and also the wave ‘1’ low.
At the moment this level is an important pivot point.

I suspect that the next major leg up will begin by rallying above that level,
and then holding above that level after a correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [iv] to complete and turn down to a higher low in wave (b) by tomorrow evening.