Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to a new week.

may the Lord of hosts bless you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is struggling to trace out a clear five wave pattern higher today.
The price has drifted lower in a possible fourth wave as shown.
But I would like to see another spike higher to complete five waves up in wave (i).
A break above that 1.1375 initial resistance level would be a bonus to this count.

Tomorrow;
the idea this week is to complete an impulse wave higher off the low at 1.1186.
So it is critical that 1.1186 holds this week.
It is about time that wave (E) of the triangle begin now.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

So far Cable has failed to shift off the lows of wave (v) of [i].
todays decline is on route to break the 1.3277 low again in wave ‘v’ of (v).
Even if that level breaks,
momentum on the 4hr chart shows a divergence to the upside.
This suggests at least a short term rally over the next few weeks.
I am looking for a corrective rally in wave [ii],
so that is a vote in favor of the count at least.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ of (v) may drop to a new low tomorrow,
but I am looking for that corrective rally in wave [ii] to begin this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

It is possible that we already have a three wave correction complete at todays highs.
In this case wave [ii] has traced out an expanded flat correction.
There may be a little more upside in wave (c) of [ii],
but the minimum expected from this correction is in place.

Last weeks decline is pretty convincing in terms of setting up a decline into wave ‘C’ as I suspect.
So I am looking for the initial lower high to complete in wave (ii),
then an extended decline into wave [iii] should begin by the endo of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] of ‘C’ to complete and then reverse to begin wave [iii] down.
A break of 113.00 again should confirm wave [iii] is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

With an hour left to go in todays trade the market has lifted to a solid higher low.
So far we have three waves up,
and I have labelled that as wave ‘iv’ of (iii).

It remains to be seen if the pattern off Last weeks low stays corrective as it is now.
Or the selloff was just a natural shake out before beginning another leg higher.
Of course you know which option I prefer!
But just because I prefer the bearish option, does not mean I am correct here.

I will wait for the action to tell the story from here.

I have shown a possible alternate count form wave (iv) and (v) of [i].
The rally off the low compares well in points travelled to the correction in wave (ii),
but it is a little compressed in terms of time.
It is a possible count,
but again, the action will tell.

Tomorrow;
Ideally,
the price will fall into wave ‘v’ of (iii) by tomorrow evening.
That will complete a clear five waves down in wave (iii) at least.
If the alternate count is correct,
another step lower will complete wave (v) of [i].

If the price breaks above 35550 again that will damage the bearish count,
and I will have to look again at the recent decline as a correction off the high.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I have not ruled out the main bullish count today despite my reservations that have been growing over the last few days.
Something needs to happen quick for this count to remain valid though.

If the low at 1758 holds and,
if we get an immediate lift off into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coming week,
then all is Kosher with that bullish count.
The margins are tight tough
and a break of 1758 will rule this out.

The new alternate count on the short term chart is also bullish,
but it allows for a longer triangle in wave (4).
This will lead to a large rally into wave (5) over the coming months also.

The Main bearish count is shown on the daily count.
I won’t annoy anyone by talking about that tonight!

Tomorrow;
The immediate goal here is for wave (ii) to hold at 1758.90.
A break of that level will trigger the first alternate count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has retraced much of the rebound off the lows created last Friday now.
This action definitely favors the current outlook for wave ‘3’ down.
The price should fall to a new low over the next few sessions
and create five waves down in wave [v] in this scenario.

Todays high at wave [iv] is an important level at 72.76.
If this level is broken to the upside again,
The pattern will have too many internal overlaps and this count will be invalidated.

It will be a good signal that the recent declines are more corrective than impulsive.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] to continue lower and to complete five waves down in wave ‘3’ by Midweek.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

the overall pattern of the rebound is three waves and that much is for sure.
And as far as I can see,
the high of todays session topped out at 61.% retracement of wave (i).
This action is not a confirmation of the bearish count,
but it is another signpost in favor of the bearish idea.

Now its crunch time though!
A decline into wave (iii) will be ideal from here.
And that decline should accelerate the market lower in five waves.
Wave (iii) should hit the 4480 level at a minimum.
This level is where wave (iii) and wave (i) will reach equality.

Tomorrow;
The rally into todays highs is a three wave form.
If this extends higher into a five wave pattern then I will have to rethink this bearish count.
A break of 4720 again will rule out this bearish count.

Watch for wave (iii) to turn lower again and form an initial lower high below todays high.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Another step lower in silver today has not ruled out the bullish count yet.
the pattern in wave [ii] is pretty solid as an expanded flat.
Although I do want this decline in wave (c) of [ii] to stop now.
And I want a bullish reversal pattern to begin off this low.
I am looking for wave (i) of [iii] to push back towards 25.00 again in five waves this week.

If that happens,
it will be a good sign that precious metals in general are beginning another le higher.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete that fnial low and then spike higher in wave ‘i’ of (i) before midweek.

I will get worried if this decline breaks below 22.00 again.