Good evening folks.
Heres the weekend video for convenience.
Check it out while browsing the charts below.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Todays return to trading first brought a break of initial support at 1.0990,
and then a spike higher off that low just to confuse matters a little more!
The spike higher this evening can be viewed a few different ways.
This could be a small correction within wave ‘iii’ down,
In this case the price will not break 1.1096 and return lower next week.
It could be part of a larger three wave correction in wave ‘ii’.
In this case price will rise into 1.1096 and then turn lower again in wave ‘iii’.
Or,
it could be the beginning of wave (c) as shown in the larger alternate count.
Monday;
the short term action off this low is critical to point to the most likely short term count.
Watch for a small three wave correction higher and 1.1096 to hold,
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable fell in three waves off the wave ‘i’ high into this mornings low at 1.2878.
This should complete wave ‘ii’ pink at that low.
And the spike higher off that low suggests wave ‘iii’ of (v) is now underway.
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 1.3012 at the wave (iii) high.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.2878,
wave ‘iii’ up is set to rally into the 1.3300 handle before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The action at the close on Wednesday broke out above the 109.49 high
and this ruled out the previous short term count.
Wave (D) is now closing out again at this high.
We should see confirmation next week of the beginning of wave ‘A’ of (E).
A drop back below 108.21 again will signal wave (E) has begun.
And the decline in wave (E) should trace out a three wave pattern into about 106.00 to complete.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘A’ to continue lower over the coming days.
We should see clear lower high develop to begin wave ‘A’ next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The sideways action this week off the high leaves open the possibility of a triangle now underway.
This is labelled as the main alternate count at the moment,
as shown on the short term count.
A fall back below the 28000 level will rule out the triangle pattern for wave ‘iv’.
and suggest that that wave (i) is underway.
Wave (i) down should be confirmed with a break below 27600 again at the previous wave (iv).
Monday;
Watch for a drop below 28000 again to invalidate the triangle.
The main focus for next week is still on the downside,
to see if we can build a five wave pattern off the high and a bearish signal.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is holding above 1449 again today which again favors the bullish count for now.
This evenings action brought a spike to the upside reaching 1466 at the high,
and if this rise continues above 1479 on Monday,
it should be enough to signal wave ‘iii’ up is underway.
Wave ‘iii’ up should carry above 1500 again with ease before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
Monday;
Watch for price to continue to hold above 1450 at wave ‘ii’ pink.
Wave ‘iii’ up must break 1479 soon.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
We were looking for a drop in wave ‘iii’ to come in this week,
and we were not disappointing!
Todays sharp move lower is a very strong sign
that the top is finally in for wave [ii] green.
And this allows us to switch focus to the downside again to begin wave [iii].
Ideally,
wave (i) of [iii] should continue lower to break the initial support at wave (b) grey.
This level lies at 53.74.
So this becomes the main target for wave (i) to complete.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) is most likely done now,
so Monday should bring a correction higher again in wave ‘iv’ pink.
Wave ‘iv’ should correct in three waves,
and I would like to see wave ‘iv’ hold below 56.00.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to begin and trace out a three wave correction higher.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is finishing the week with a slight downside bias at last!
It is very possible that wave (v) has completed at the recent all time high.
But I will have to see a sharper move to the downside again in wave (i) to confirm that view.
Wave ‘i’ of (i) should drop below 3126 again,
and wave (i) itself should target 3046 again at the previous wave (i) high.
Monday;
Lets see if the market begins an impulsive move lower early next week.
We surely have the general environment in place now for a turn.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is up slightly again off the recent lows at 16.80.
There is no confirmation of a turn higher in wave (i) yet,
but I remain hopeful that will occur soon.
If this rally continues again on Monday and breaks above the 17.22 level.
That will be a good sign that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
A break of 17.60 again will rule out the alternate count shown.
Monday;
With all that said,
price must continue to hold above 16.80 now.
And wave ‘iii’ up should begin with a break of 17.22.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds put in a low this evening at 129.14.
This should bring us very close to completing a three wave correction in wave ‘iv’ pink now.
the trend channel is almost filled,
and price is rising again off that low.
If we see a rally back above 129.74 again on Monday,
that will signal wave ‘v’ of (c) is underway.
The low at wave ‘i’ pink lies at 128.56,
That low must hold for the short term count to remain valid.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to begin soon with a break of 129.74.
I pray you all have a nice weekend ahead of you.
Take a break and smell the roses,
because the near future is going to get hectic.
God Bless and God’s speed to you all.
See you Monday,
enda.