Good evening to one and all,

God’s Blessings to you all tonight.

As a reminder, the thanksgiving holiday will be observed on Thursday the 25th, so there will not be an update on Thursday night.

If you have a chance, I recommend again, reading John Hussmann’s latest update from the weekend. I can only keep nodding my head when I read his thoughts and then stare at the charts!

This one is a prime example!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Well no reversal yet!
The price did try at pushing off the lows on Friday,
the price has broken back below the wave (iii) low again this evening to rule that out.
I am sticking with the idea that wave [v] green is completing,
it seem that wave (v) of [v] has a little more downside to go before exhausting momentum though.

Tomorrow;
The downside action today is a little messy within wave (v),
this is a hint again at momentum dying off.

Watch for wave (v) to find a low tomorrow to complete wave [v] green.
This decline in wave ‘C’ has almost reached a 162% extension of wave ‘A’.
Really I cant expect much more than that for wave ‘C’.
So reversal higher this week is the aim of the game.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has slipped to a new low this evening also,
but again I have not changed my view on this action.
The price should create a higher low in wave (b) very soon,
before turning higher into wave (c) again by midweek.
If wave (b) manages to fall below 1.3353 again,
that will classify wave [ii] as an expanded flat correction.

Tomorrow;
I would prefer if wave (b) holds above 1.3353.
Watch for wave (c) to push higher tomorrow with a minimum target at the wave (a) high at 1.3515.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has pushed higher and ruled out Fridays pattern which showed a top in place.
The decline off the recent top halted and only managed three waves down.
This low now becomes wave ‘iv’ of (v),
with a top in wave ‘v’ of (v) expected again this week.
The pattern in wave ‘v’ has traced out three waves up so far.
Wave ‘v’ should top out after a five wave rally and then reverse in an impulsive manner again.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ to find a top possibly tomorrow evening after a small correction and spike to a new high to complete five waves up.

113.58 is now a critical level in this pattern.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘C’ has begun.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

You know I will never snub my nose up at a bearish count in the Dow!
So tonight I post the bearish idea as an alternate count.
The probability is quite small for that alternate count,
but it is a possibility as long as the price holds below 36322.
If the price falls back below 35500 again then the bearish option will be more favorable.

As for the main count.
The rise off the recent low at wave (iv) is not very impulsive looking yet,
and the price has only managed three waves up into todays high.
I would like to see a solid up day by Wednesday evening to signal wave (v) is underway,
And a clear higher low in wave ‘ii’ of (v) by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of ‘v’ to push higher and complete five waves up above 36000.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays decline was a little more than even I was expecting to be honest!
This decline is still viewed as wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
The price has now reached the 62% retracement level of ‘i’,
so we should see a bottom form for this correction tomorrow.
And then a spike higher off the wave ‘ii’ low should be in place by Wednesday evening.

I have shown the updated bearish alternate count on the daily chart this evening.
This count is pretty simple and calls for a decline to begin again into wave ‘C’ over teh coming months.

Tomorrow,
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above the rising trend line again tomorrow.
Lets see if a low comes in tomorrow to set the stage for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) this week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

No change for crude oil yet as the price is only limping off the lows of wave ‘4’ created on Friday.
The pattern off that low is still only in three waves.
So there is a reasonable chance that this is only a correction higher off the lows.
In that case we can view the decline into wave [c] as an ending diagonal until proven otherwise.
Wave (v) of [c] should fall again to complete this pattern.
And then wave ‘5’ should begin later in the week with a rally back above 79.26.

Tomorrow;
Watch for one more drop below 74.60 again to complete wave [c].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I wonder??

Wave ‘v’ can be viewed as complete at todays highs as shown by this count.
I know this is a bit of a long shot as there is no confirming price action yet to signal a top may be forming.
Even so,
This short term count does explain the consolidation last week as a nice triangle in wave ‘4’ of ‘v’.
And on top of that we do have a spike lower off that top now beginning.

It is far too early to either confirm or rule out this count but I think it is worthwhile considering this possibility
given that the larger pattern for wave (v) blue is pretty full now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a decline in five waves off todays top to break the previous wave ‘iv’ low at 4630.
If that happens,
then we might have something to work with here.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has dropped into the support zone below the 50% retracement level this evening.
It is not clear yet if wave ‘c’ of (ii) is fully formed.
I suspect we will see another step lower to complete a five waves down as shown.
That will bring the price down to the 62% retracement level at 23.92 again.
And off that low I will be looking for a reversal higher to begin in wave ‘i’ of (iii) later in the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete one more step lower.
I would like to see that rising trend line hold this week to keep the uptrend intact.