Good evening to one and all.
It’s been a long and tiresome week of non-action!
But I do suspect that this boring action will be replaced quite soon with something spectacular in a few markets.
So it is a time of patience and preparation in my book.
I have not recorded the weekend video yet, but I should get to that tomorrow, but there is no rush on that.
Lets get into it then and see what where we are going next week.
Samuel Benner.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It’s been a frustrating and confusing week all-round to be honest.
The USD currency market has been stuck in a rut over the last month really,
and it is times like these that I have to remind myself,
flat markets do not last forever.
EURUSD is dropping off that possible wave ‘ii’ high at 1.1096 today.
The decline is in three waves so far,
so we must see further declines below 1.0989 on Monday
in order to confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.
A break of that level will also rule out the alternate count.
Monday;
Watch for 1.1096 to hold and wave ‘iii’ down to extend lower.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Another day of ranging action in cable has opened up a possibility for wave (iv).
The sideways action over the last month can be viewed as a triangle in wave (iv).
I have shown this as the main wave count now.
And if that is correct,
wave (iv) will continue sideways for another few sessions before wave (v) kicks into gear.
Monday;
the low of wave ‘a’ at 1.2762 must hold for the triangle to remain valid.
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to complete above that level,
and then return higher again in wave ‘d’ on Monday.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The triangle idea for wave [b] in USDJPY is holding up well so far.
There should be another session of sideways action left
to complete wave (d) and (e) early next week.
Before the price then turns lower again in wave [c] of ‘A’ as shown.
Monday;
The nose is tightening on the price now!
Wave (d) must hold above the wave (b) low at 108.28,
and then wave (e) must complete below 108.72 on the higher end.
We should begin wave [c] down by the end of the session on Tuesday.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is holding within a corrective pattern to the upside today.
The price is rising slowly in a small trend channel in wave ‘ii’.
And this evening price is about to hit the upper trend channel line.
Wave ‘ii’ is near to an end now,
and wave ‘iii’ should turn lower again early next week.
A break of the wave ‘i’ low at 27670 again will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Monday;
The main focus in the same as ever!
I want to see a clear five waves down in wave (i) build over the next week.
Once that happens,
the red flag will be raised,
and wave (ii) should create a bearish lower high.
That action will create a bearish opportunity.
One step at a time now.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Despite another drop in price today,
the short term action in gold still qualifies as corrective to the downside.
It is possible that we have a running flat correction now in place for wave ‘ii’ pink.
The decline within the trend channel over the last few days
is likely a small ending diagonal.
This creates an overall 3,3,5 formation in wave ‘ii’.
And in that case,
we have a complete correction.
On top of the wave count.
The long term momentum situation is also looking very bullish.
The Daily MACD is now reading a similar low to that of August 2018!
Back then price stood at 1161.
And from there we embarked on the rally into the recent highs at 1550.
So,
in terms of the wide angle view of things.
I think we are looking pretty bullish overall.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 1455 again.
Wave ‘ii’ will be confirmed with a break of 1480 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Todays high reached 58.68 in wave ‘c’ of (c) of [ii].
The price has now hit the 61.8% retracement level of wave [i] at todays highs.
And the pattern in wave [ii] is now complete.
Last weeks action gave us a false signal with five waves down into 54.80.
But the pattern now in place,
should produce another five waves down to begin the larger wave [iii].
Monday;
The price has taken a step lower this evening.
This may well be the beginning of wave (i) down.
Watch for a small lower high in wave ‘ii’,
and a drop back below 57.00 again to begin wave ‘iii’.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It is hard to view the action off this weeks lows as anything but corrective at the moment.
The market has struggled to put on 20 points in three days.
I think wave ‘ii’ is at an end now,
and we should see an acceleration lower early next week to begin wave ‘iii’.
A break of 3091 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
The longer term momentum setup is the complete opposite to that in place in gold.
We have daily MACD and RSI now cresting the turn at an extreme high.
The only way from here is down.
And 4hr momentum is on the verge of a bearish signal.
Monday;
The recent highs should hold now at 3127.
A break of 3091 is the first hurdle to clear for wave ‘iii’.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has dropped today which goes against the bullish short term count.
I am still leaning towards the idea that price is simply correcting within wave ‘iii’ at the moment.
And we should see a return higher on Monday to confirm this view.
Todays high reached 17.22,
another break of that level will signal wave ‘iii’ up has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold again at 16.73 and wave ‘iii’ up to begin.
A break of 17.59 will confirm the bullish count.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are really going nowhere fast these days.
And like much of the markets I am tracking,
the action is simply refusing to confirm, or rule out,
any interpretation I am working with at the moment.
The price did fall towards initial support at 128.94 today.
But not far enough to rule out the short term count just yet.
If we see a break of that level in an impulsive fashion on Monday,
then I will be willing to change to the bearish count.
For the moment,
we have wave (c) to complete next week.
Monday;
Watch for 128.94 to hold.
Wave (c) up should continue towards 131.00 to complete a running flat wave [ii].
Have a great weekend y’all!
See you Monday again.
God’s speed to you.
Enda.