Good evening Folks.
There will not be an update tomorrow as I will be off to Poland soon for the next few days.
So the next update is on Monday night.
Here are a couple of charts that I will speak on later.
GOLD Daily sentiment index.
DOW weekly count:
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The wave ‘i’ high at 1.1000 is getting quite close now after todays drop.
If wave 1.1000 breaks in this new declined,
that will rule out the short term alternate count,
and signal the top is in for wave [ii] green.
The drop off wave [ii] has traced out a five wave pattern into the lows of the session.
I have labelled this as wave ‘i’ of (i).
Wave ‘ii’ is expected to correct higher soon and hit 1.1090 at a minimum.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ down to complete and wave ‘ii’ to begin.
This correction in wave ‘ii’ might take a few sessions to complete
and then wave ‘iii’ down will break 1.1000 for good.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has stuck within its trading range today,
without breaking 1.2786 yet at the wave ‘i’ low.
I realise this action is less than ideal,
with that in mind, I am looking at the short term alternate count for wave ‘iv’.
If we see a rally off that lower trend line,
that will signal the current action is wave ‘iv’ of (c)
rather than the beginning of wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 1.2786,
and an acceleration below that lower trend channel line to confirm wave ‘iii’ down.
A break above 1.2976 will trigger the alternate count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Todays rally is in line with the wave (v) scenario so far.
The price has broken 109.28 at the minimum target.
And with todays rally wave [v] should be almost done.
The next resistance level lies at 109.90,
this level marks a previous corrective high which is shown on the 4hr chart.
And that level should offer some serious resistance to the rally in wave [v].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [v] to find top out soon enough.
If the price falls back below 109.00 again tomorrow,
that will signal wave [v] is topping out.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The air is getting thin up here now!
After todays rally,
I can see a pretty clear five waves in place off the wave (iv) low at 26900.
The final leg up today in wave ‘v’ even counts as a five wave structure.
The price has now hit the target area where the larger wave (5) red
reaches equality with wave (1) red.
That wave should bring home to us the magnitude of the top now forming.
As this final wave (5) red,
is the completing move of a five wave rally off the 2009 low.
And this is viewed best on the Weekly chart that I have shown above.
If you take a look at that weekly chart,
you can see the shocking momentum divergence in place now.
Price has marched higher,
but momentum has turned down in a very dangerous way.
On a longer term timeline the future for the market is assured.
We have a monumental bearmarket waiting for us dead ahead.
And we are marching directly into this storm with our eyes shut,
again!
Tomorrow;
The trend channel for wave (v) has now been filled,
so there is not much left in this rally.
Watch for this wave (v) of [v] to top out and head lower again into wave (i) down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Every one and their mothers have now turned bearish on gold going on the headlines around.
Heres a doozie from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-07/precious-metals-crushed-as-end-of-the-world-trade-implodes
Buying gold is an end of the world trade,
But buying apple and netflix is a smart move!
I dont think so.
When the top of wave [iii] came in September,
I knew we would be in for a pretty heavy correction over the following month or so.
This has gone on longer than I thought for sure,
but I remain steadfast in my view that this is a correction.
And it will end sooner than people think.
the next best wave count for wave [iv] at the moment is a combination correction.
Wave (a) was a flat 3,3,5 structure,
wave (b) was a triangle,
and now wave (c) is tracing out a five wave decline which is all but complete now.
The target first target for wave (c) lies at the wave (a) low at 1459.
This evening lows hit 1461.
So we are pretty close to a completed pattern.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) of [iv] to compelte.
bearishness is at an extreme now,
so we are in a perfect area for wave (i) up to begin.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is bouncing around at the top of wave [ii] now,
with the last few sessions now making any gain whatsoever.
This action looks like a final minor wave 4 and 5 to complete wave ‘c’
The price is heading lower again this evening
and I think this will be the main feature of the action next week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) down to take over with a drop back below 56.00 again.
The focus next week will to track a five wave decline in wave (i) as shown.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has traced out a five wave rally into the high of wave (v) today.
This completes a five wave rally in wave [v],
and also a larger five wave rally in wave ‘5’ blue.
Todays pop to the upside even completed in five waves.
You get the picture!
This is an ending trend right now,
and it’s days are numbered!
The price has cooled off this evening with a drop off that new all time high.
We will see if this continues over the coming week to begin wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
It is a wait and see game again in stocks.
Wave (i) down is due,
so next week I will be looking for a five wave decline
to turn the tide on this rally.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The decline in silver today has also triggered the alternate count.
The triangle for wave [iv] has been ruled out,
and now the best interpretation for wave [iv] is a combination wave as in gold.
The pattern is similar to gold,
and wave (c) down is tracing out a five wave drop,
as is usual for most C waves.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to complete over the next few sessions.
When we have a clear five wave pattern in place for wave (c),
then we can focus on the upside again in wave (i) of [v].
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Wave ‘ii’ completed at yesterdays highs without making it to the 130.00 level.
Price turned down immediately today,
with that I have ruled out the alternate count for wave (ii),
and it is now likely that wave (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to remain in force for the coming week at least.
The high at wave (ii) of 130.45 should hold from here on out.
The next major support level lies at 126.99.
That does it for the week from me.
I will have to leave the video until Monday most likely
as I will be leaving shortly for the airport.
So time is tight tonight!
God bless you all and have a great weekend!
Back on Monday.
Enda.