It’s been a fairly quiet day all round but there was some movement in the metals that I have to deal with.
Even though that action went against the short term wave count,
I still believe the overall pattern is corrective and we are setting up for a larger run up in a fifth wave.
More on that later.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD had a sharp move lower today which is leaning towards the bearish side of the long term count now.
The decline can be viewed as the beginning of wave (i) down.
This is a little earlier than expected,
but the action is pretty impulsive looking so far.
If the decline continues tomorrow and break the 1.1000 level.
That will be a strong indication that wave [ii] has topped out and wave [iii] down has begun.
The alternate count views this decline as the end of wave ‘iv’.
If that is correct,
price must hold above 1.1000 at the wave ‘i’ high.
So 1.1000 is the critical level in the short term count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue lower and break 1.1000.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The waters are calm right now in GBPUSD,
but I don’t expect this to last very long!
There is still no action to confirm or rule out the current bearish count.
At the moment,
I continue to favor the downside in wave (i).
An break below 1.2786 will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
So that is the action I am looking for tomorrow.
4hr momentum is signaling that a turn lower is due now.
And as long as the bias is to the downside in the short term,
then I will continue to expect wave (i) to get underway soon.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to get underway with a break of 1.2786.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has rallied to challenge the recent highs today,
which has forced a rethink of the short term chart.
The low of last Friday hit 107.87,
and the decline into that low traced out a pretty clear five waves down.
This is now viewed as a decline in wave (c) of [iv].
The rally off that low is now viewed as wave [v] of ‘C’,
and this should complete wave (D) as shown.
Wave ‘C’ is on its last legs now,
so I expect the price will roll over this week into wave ‘A’ of (E).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] to top out very soon with one last break of 109.28.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is holding steady at the highs this evening
in what should be the final move up of wave (v) of [v].
If we take a step back for a second and view the larger picture,
we can see that the price is right in the target zone for both wave [i] = [v] at 27520,
and wave ‘1’ = ‘5’ at 27740 as mentioned last night.
4hr momentum is rolling over at a third lower high now.
And daily momentum continues to slow,
creating it’s fourth lower high since last January.
That is a full 11 months of bearish divergence on the daily chart.
This setup will be corrected painfully with a sharp move lower over the coming months.
On the daily chart also;
The price has now hit the upper trend line connecting the four previous highs.
And if we continue the theme of equality up one degree higher.
We can see that wave (5) red reaches equality with wave (1) red at 27770.
I may be biased on the bearish side,
but this setup is more than just a coincidence in my view.
Tomorrow;
Watch for This final move higher in wave (v) to continue up into that band of resistance.
A rally into 27640 will bring us into the dead center of those targets.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold did exactly what I did not want it to do today!
The price broke 1481 and ruled out the previous short term count.
It is very possible that todays lows have completed a three wave decline in wave (e) of [iv].
That is the next best interpretation on the short term chart.
In this case,
wave (e) must hold above 1474 tomorrow and head higher in wave (i) of [v].
The alternate count shows todays decline as wave (ii) of wave [v].
in this case,
wave (ii) must hold above 1459.
Tomorrow;
If wave [iv] is now complete,
then we should see price rally again tomorrow
and most likely push above 1520 by the end of the week.
Watch for price to hold above 1474.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is holding at the highs of wave [ii] again this evening.
The price is topping out in wave (c) of [ii] as I write.
And wave (c) has a pretty clear five wave pattern in place at this evening highs.
The whole rally off the lows at wave [i] reads best as a correction so far,
the pattern fits nicely within a trend channel,
and we are right at the typical Fibonacci resistance zone now,
between the 50% and 62% retracement levels.
All we need is a clear five wave pattern lower over the coming days to signal the trend has changed.
tomorrow;
watch for wave [ii] to create a top and wave (i) of [iii] down to begin.
A decline below 56.00 again will signal wave (i) has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The Dominoes are lining up in a very similar way for the S&P these days.
Todays action has most likely completed wave ‘iv’ of (v) at the lows.
A rally above 3087 again will signal wave ‘v’ is in force.
And at that point I don’t think there will be much left in the tank for the rally.
The Momentum setup is very similar to the DOW on the the 4hr and daily chart.
The rally in wave ‘5’ blue is very mature and slowing dangerously.
With momentum topping out at extremes on both longer term charts.
From a longer term view,
there is really only one way from here!
And the evidence is overwhelming
that we are on the cusp of another very large decline again.
Tomorrow;
Wave (v) of [v] probably has one more high left before we are in danger of turning on the short term chart.
But we are so very close to a turn,
that I see no opportunity on the upside at all.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver confirmed the larger triangle also today.
the price broke 17.58 this evening and ruled out last nights short term count.
The decline has paused again this evening at the lower trend line support.
So wave (c) may well have bottomed out this evening.
If this short term count is correct,
then wave (d) should head higher from here in three waves over the next few days,
and that should top out below 18.30.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (d) to begin with a push above 18.00 again.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Todays sharp drop has switched the focus to the downside again in wave (iii) of [iii].
The price broke the low at 129.03 this evening,
and the decline over the last few sessions is pretty impulsive looking.
So I have now labelled this decline as wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
We should see a three wave corrective recovery beginning soon in wave ‘ii’ as shown.
And then we are in real danger of accelerating lower in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to find a low by tomorrow evening.
Wave ‘ii’ will five resistance at 130.00 again.