Evening y’all, welcome to a new week.
A bit of house keeping to start the week.
I will be heading out to Poland on Friday morning for the weekend.
So I will not be able to update on Friday as usual.
I will do the video on Thursday instead.
Forgive my absence, but it can’t be helped!
Ok down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has been stuck in a holding pattern for the last few sessions.
At the moment I view this as a correction within wave ‘v’ of (c).
most likely a fourth wave correction.
And as such,
this pattern needs one last pop to the upside
in order to complete the larger five wave pattern in wave (c).
This rally is all but done now,
So once we hit the area around 1.1250,
then I will begin to look lower again into wave [iii] down.
tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete with a break of 1.1179.
wave (i) down should begin by the middle of the week.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
We have a lower high in place at wave ‘ii’ pink so far.
And the price is drifting off that 1.3012 high again today.
The pattern is not ideal at the moment,
so I think it is worth waiting for some confirming price action first
before jumping in on the short side.
If we see a drop back below 1.2786 tomorrow,
that will help the bearish outlook for sure.
And a break below 1.2583 later in the week will confirm wave (i) is underway.
But we weed to see that recent high hold at 1.3012.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to break 1.2786 by tomorrow evening.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY rallied further today to confirm that wave [ii] is now underway.
I have labelled todays rally as wave (a) of [ii].
With wave (b) of [ii] expected tomorrow.
Wave (b) should fall overnight to about 108.20 to create a slight higher low.
And then wave (c) should begin again by Wednesday evening.
Tomorrow;
If all goes to plan,
we should have a clear impulse wave in place by the end of this week at the wave [ii] high.
Wave [iii] down should then arrive next week.
Watch for wave (b) to begin tomorrow and fall into 108.20.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Well,
we made it to a new all time high again,
A clap on the back and high fives to everyone involved!
Todays rally has brought wave (v) very close to completion.
I have labelled the high of the session today as wave ‘iii’ of (v).
If this is correct,
we should see a small correction tomorrow in wave ‘iv’
and then one more rally to about 27600 to complete the pattern by the end of the week.
The high today actually hit the target level where wave [i] and [v] reach equality.
So now we have a typical five wave pattern in place.
With wave [i] and [v] equal in points and a slowing momentum on the 4hr chart.
Interestingly,
the higher degree wave ‘5’ blue will reach equality with its corresponding wave ‘1’ at 27737.
I have put this as the upper end of the target range.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ of (v) to correct slightly tomorrow in three waves.
Price should hold above 27280 in wave ‘iv’.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Given that stocks hit a new all time high today,
one might expect gold to take a serious hit on that bullish news.
That is not the case today,
so it gives me a little more confidence in the bullish count now.
I have labelled wave ‘i’ as still ongoing this evening.
The idea being,
the current sideways action is a fourth wave correction within wave ‘i’ up.
If the price range continues to contract tomorrow that will signal a triangle is underway within wave ‘i’.
And then we can expect a rally again above 1520 to complete wave ‘i’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for this small correction to complete above at about 1507,
before turning higher in wave ‘i’.
1482 must continue to hold from here.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude push to a new high today also in wave [ii] green.
The rally into todays high has hit the 50% retracement level at 57.25.
And again we see a sharp reversal off that level.
In general I am looking for a reversal at a larger degree this week,
so I want to see a five wave decline develop from here to begin wave [iii] down.
The short term count has been altered today
to show a three wave running flat correction in wave (b),
rather than the triangle correction I had shown up until now.
The low of wave (b) now lies at 53.74.
So if we see a break of that level again,
that will signal wave (i) down is in force.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) to head lower below 56.00 again.
57.41 should hold from here.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is sitting just below a new all time high again this evening.
The high of the session reached 3085,
and the price has cooled off slightly since then.
I have labelled this small decline as wave ‘iv’ of (v) also.
Wave (v) is drawing to a close now,
and like the DOW,
one more pop to the upside will do it for this pattern.
The high of the session today
also brought the rally in wave [v] up near to equality with wave [i].
Equality occurs at 3087.
This is another milestone in the march to the inevitable bull market top!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete above 3060 high at wave ‘i’ pink.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) may even begin by tomorrow evening.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver created a slight new high in wave (d) today,
before dropping back to 18.00 again this evening.
This evenings drop should begin a three wave decline in wave (e) of [iv].
And wave (e) should complete above 17.60.
If 17.60 breaks,
that will trigger the alternate count for wave (c) as shown circled in red.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (e) to continue lower in three waves.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Wave ‘b’ has come in strong in bonds today.
This decline in wave ‘b’ should trace out a three wave pattern lower
and complete above 129.02 at the wave (i) low.
It looks like we are close to a low now this evening.
So wave ‘c’ up may evening begin tomorrow.
Once wave ‘c’ completes later on this week,
we will then have a bearish impulse wave in place off the wave [ii] high.
And then we will be set for a drop in wave (iii) of [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 129.02
and then head higher in wave ‘c’ by tomorrow evening.