Good evening to one and all.

The LORD’s blessings to you all tonight.

A matching pattern in history!

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

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This evening I think I have to change my take on wave (ii) blue.
The recent decline has gone far enough to rule out a fourth wave corrction within the advancing pattern.
The rise into last weeks high is now a three wave rally to a wave ‘b’ top,
And if this new count is correct,
we should see a five wave decline into wave ‘c’ of (ii) over the coming week.

Tomorrow;
I have shown wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ of ‘iii’ as complete,
and wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ now underway.
We will see if this view holds tomorrow.
But I do suspect the declines will continue in wave ‘c’ towards a low at 0.9600 by the end of the week.

GBPUSD

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I have a similar problem here in cable tonight.
The rally into wave ‘v’ of (iii) has failed so far,
and the price is close to breaking the wave ‘i’ high again at 1.1407.
A break of that wave ‘i’ high will be a fatal blow to the idea that wave [c] is underway.
So I have shown the alternate count for wave [b] again tonight as the fall back for cable.
The rally off the wave [b] low is a three wave form now,
so a break of the invalidation level will signal that last Thursdays high is actually wave (b) of [b].
And now wave (c) of [b] is underway.

Tomorrow;
I want to see the low of wave ‘i’ hold at 1.1407.
And a rally begin in wave ‘v’ to break above 1.1650 at a minimum.

A break of 1.1407 will trigger the alternate count.

USDJPY.

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I have shown a different configuration for wave [b] of ‘A’ tonight also.
The price has rebounded far enough off last weeks low to suggest a different pattern is required also.

I think we can view the rally into wave (c) of [b] as a five wave pattern now.
And I am looking at the previous wave (a) top at 149.44 as a target for wave (c) to complete.
That should compelte three waves in wave [b] and then I will turn my focus lower again into wave [c] of ‘A’ later in the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [b] to top out with a break of 149.44 again and then turn lower to begin a five wave decline in wave [c].

DOW JONES.

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My foolish hunt for a reversal in the stock market begins in earnest again this week!
The market did not go my way last week,
and that has led me to question my outlook for the market for sure,
but I come to the same conclusion what ever way I slice it.
This rally has all the features of a bear market rally.
There is nothing backing up the idea of higher priced stocks except a vague hope that things are about to get better,
and maybe the Fed will stop the rate hikes.

Well this bear market did not begin with a rates going higher,
and it will not end with rates going lower.

The market pattern now looks almost identical to the mid-summer rally and that was short lived to say the least,
A similar type of retracement off the lows,
a similar type of frantic rally chasing went on there too.
And that was all wiped out very quickly with the slightest sentiment change.
I suspect the same will happen here also.
But I will have to wait for that reversal lower to show itself to begin the long trek down into wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for a sign that wave ‘c’ of (ii) has topped out with a break of last weeks wave ‘5’ spike rally.
The wave ‘4’ low lies at 31850,
so lets see if we can break that low to turn the tide here.

GOLD

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Gold is now back below the the wave ‘a’ low at 1638 again.
And the overall pattern for wave ‘ii’ is complete as an expanded flat correction.
the critical low for gold lies at 1617.60.
A break of that low will rule out the bullish count until another opportunity to comes our way to begin wave (i) again.

Tomorrow;
The path ahead is pretty simple here,
we need wave ‘ii’ to hold above 1618 and then wave ‘iii’ of (i) must push higher again for the rest of the week.

CRUDE OIL.

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I am not entirely convinced by the decline into wave (c).
The action is not a clear impulse pattern to the downside, yet at least.
So this pattern must clear up and head lower in order to confirm the larger pattern beginning tomorrow.

Overall I think the three wave decline pattern in wave [b] does actually explain the action pretty well.
Wave (c) of this decline should trace out five waves down to break 81.00 again.
And that is where we stand right now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave (b) high to hold at 89.37.
Wave (c) should continue lower and clear up the pattern into five waves.

S&P 500.

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The action in the S&P today was weak and the market has declined off the top formed on Friday,
but there is very little evidence yet to suggest the top is finally in for wave (ii).
That can change quickly,
and if we do see a rapid decline to retrace the wave ‘5’ rally,
that will be a good signal that the top is in for wave (ii) and wave (iii) is kicking off.

As it stands,
all the signs are pointing to a near top for wave (ii).
The internal pattern in wave (ii) is perfect.
The Fib retracement is perfect,
and the general market complacency stinks of another top now at hand.

This clearing rally did its job very well by reducing the fear level to non existent.
And if the wave count is correct here,
then we are on the verge of something much bigger than most people expect.

Again,
this week has the potential to be very interesting indeed.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if the market can give us a clearer signal to put an end to the upside correction.

SILVER.

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Silver has made some progress lower today but the internal pattern within wave (i) is less than ideal.
I would like to see wave (i) make a good attempt at retracing the whole rally in wave (c) of [ii].
That has not happened yet,
so I am willing to give this pattern some time to develop.
If wave (i) does achieve that goal,
then we will hit the 18.00 level again over the next few sessions.
And wave (i) should be have a pretty good impulsive look to it when complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave [ii] to hold at 19.77.
Wave (i) must continue lower as suggested.
A break of the wave ‘iv’ low at 18.77 again will favor the wave (i) count.