Good evening, and Gods Blessings to you all tonight.

I am again pointing to John Hussman’s latest report which gives a grand overview on where we stand in the valuation cycle right now.

The outcome according to Hussman, is at least a 2/3’s decline in market valuation by the completion of this cycle.

I tend to agree!

Herd Mentality

Here it goes.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays sharp move higher in EURUSD is viewed as wave (c) of [ii],
and that should lead to a reversal lower over the rest of the week in wave [iii] as shown.
If the price drops below 1.1700 again that will signal wave (i) of [iii] is underway.

The alternate count involves a larger wave ‘B’ in blue.
I cant rule out the possibility that this rally today is part of wave [c] of ‘B’.
A break of 1.1700 again will rule that out.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin with a break of 1.1700.
1.1831 must hold.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The series of 1,2 waves to the downside is still holding so far today.
But we need to see wave ‘iii’ down begin now and push lower into 1.2857.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
The wave [b] high at 1.3081 must hold and wave (iii) carry the price lower for the next few sessions.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The non-action today offers no clarity on the current short term count.
It is still valid to view the rally as a developing wave (i) of [iii].

Bit also,
the triangle wave (b) in the alternate count can explain the tight range of action.

The road ahead is simple though,
a break out above the wave (b) high at 105.62 will rule out the triangle and favor the bullish short term count.

A break below 105.03 low at wave [ii] will trigger the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to accelerate above 105.62 again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The price is heading lower this evening as we approach the close.
this decline comes after a three wave rally into Fridays highs.

I am allowing the main bearish count to stay for the moment as the action fits the pattern so far.
This decline may be the first move into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
In this case we need an acceleration lower into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to confirm the count.
A break of 28145 will confirm this pattern and lead to a further decline towards 27155 at wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 28145 at a minimum to confirm wave (iii) is in force.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

We saw a very small move above Fridays high today,
to form another lower high in wave ‘ii’ pink.

The price is again selling into the close this evening.
If wave ‘iii’ is now underway,
then we should see a drop below 1882 tomorrow with ease.

Wave ‘iii’ down is expected to break 1848 again to confirm the larger bearish count.
So this move is very important in terms of the larger correction in wave (4) blue.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to break 1882 and signal that the larger move lower in wave (iii) is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The short term pattern in crude is still very messy at the moment.
The alternate count labels this action as wave (v) of [c].
After a wild triangle in wave (iv).
This alternate count will be ruled out with a break of 40.29 again.

Back to the main count.
We need a pretty fast move lower now to confirm wave (iii) down has begun.
And I’m afraid that cannot be confirmed until we get a break of 39.27 at the wave (i) low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 40.30 again to favor the bearish count.
Wave (iii) down must begin to accelerate lower now.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is moving lower this evening and so far we have a three wave decline in place.
I want to see a break of 3430 again to strengthen the bearish case.
So at the moment the market is still on that knife edge I have spoken about.

The bearish count is unflinching in its call for a serious acceleration lower this week.
So if that does not happen,
then I will have no option but to accept defeat in the short term!

Tomorrow;
3430 is the key level now.
Wave (iii) should break that easily and head down into 3340 at the next support.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has completed three waves up in wave [ii] at the early highs today.
The market is now falling again this evening and of this drop continues below the $24 handle,
that will increase the probability that wave [ii] is done and wave [iii] is underway.
Wave [iii] will be confirmed with a break of 23.55 again at the wave [i] low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] down to break 24.04 at the wave (b) low.