Hi there all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Mondays top is still intact after a tight trade today.
The price may have a small lower high in place off that 1.1179 wave [ii] high.
I have labelled that waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (i) to the downside.
There is no real confirmation that the final top is in for wave [ii],
but I am encouraged by the last hours trade,
a new spike lower could be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (i).
A break back below 1.1100 in a nice impulsive fashion tomorrow will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.
I think a break of 1.0990 will confirm wave (i) is in force.
Tomorrow;
The main focus from here is to build a further five waves lower off the wave [ii] high in wave (i).
That will be a clear sign that wave [iii] down is getting started.
Watch for 1.1179 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (i) to fall.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
It is a similar story in cable today.
The price rallied back towards the 1.3012 high this afternoon,
but failed to break that level.
This raises the probability that the top is now in place for wave [ii] green.
And the sharp move lower this evening also fits well with the idea that an impulse wave is now building off that high.
I have labelled the first move lower off the high as wave ‘i’ of (i).
Wave ‘ii’ may have completed a lower high below 1.3012 at the afternoon high.
And now with this spike lower in place off that high, wave ‘iii’ is underway.
Tomorrow;
1.3012 must hold.
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower and break below the 1.2700 level again.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The price did not reach the anticipated double top in wave (b) today.
But we do have a three wave move in place off the wave (a) low.
It is likely that wave (b) is complete at the overnight high of 108.72.
If that is the case,
then wave (c) is now underway off that high today.
The minimum target for wave (c) is a break of 108.28 at the wave (a) low.
If the price turns higher again and breaks 108.72,
that will signal wave (b) is tracing out a larger three wave pattern before falling into wave (c) later this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a continued decline in wave (c) to break 108.28 at a minimum.
Further support lies at the previous fourth wave low of 108.02.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Another dead calm day on the trading floor!
This is of course not good news in the slightest for the bulls,
we have a clear downturn in 4hr momentum nearing a centreline cross,
and a rejection of the highs so far.
The weak undercurrent in the market may become violent very soon
especially if we get a five wave pattern lower.
And I have not ruled that out at all yet.
Back to the short term pattern.
The market did move higher earlier,
but this rise has proved corrective as we price has spiked lower again this evening.
The wave [i] high lies at 26650,
so this level should provide some support as this wave (iv) low completes.
If that level breaks,
it will rule out the alternate count shown for wave [iv] green.
And that will be one more option off the table.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to hold at 26650 and turn higher into wave [v].
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has completed another three wave decline into todays lows at 1480.70.
At the moment I am still short term bullish in wave ‘iii’ up.
This decline is viewed as a correction within wave ‘iii’.
so we should see a rally occur off todays lows
and price should push back above 1500 initially to get wave ‘iii’ underway properly.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1481 to hold.
A break above 1500 again will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Today rally has triggered the alternate count.
After yesterdays three wave decline,
the price rallied again today and broke above 54.00 which ruled out an impulsive decline.
The new wave count is a variation of the recent alternate count.
Wave (a) up traced out three waves.
Wave (b) then tracked sideways over the last few weeks.
This triangle ended in a three wave drop into the wave (b) low at 52.84.
The price is now well into wave (c) up.
I have shown todays rally as wave ‘iii’ of (c) to the upside.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to push higher in five waves as shown.
The current target lies in the area of 55.60 to complete the larger wave [ii].
Then I will look for wave [iii] down to begin again.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is on track for a decline in wave (c) of [iv] today.
The market is selling off this evening in a nice sharp fashion,
and should trace out a five wave decline over the coming few sessions.
The initial target for wave (c) lies at the previous wave (a) low of 2975.
Wave (c) down will complete the larger correction in wave [iv].
And wave [iv] must hold above 2960 at the wave [i] high.
If the market moves lower impulsively from here and breaks 2959,
that will open up more bearish possibilities.
We may even revert to the [i] [ii] pattern off the high again.
We will have to wait and see on that front.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) to head lower to the initial target at 2975 to compelte wave [iv] green.
Wave [v] must begin then and take us to a new all time high.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has also created a three wave decline off the recent high at 17.86,
so I can still view this decline as corrective at the moment.
The low at 17.15 continues to hold at wave ‘ii’,
So,
If we see a return higher tomorrow to take out the 17.86 high,
that could set us up for a larger rally in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Tomorrow;
The critical level in the short term is 17.15 at wave ‘ii’ pink.
Watch for that level to continue to hold and for a small rally above 17.86 to begin tomorrow
to open up the possibility that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have corrected sideways today in a small flat pattern off the overnight lows.
It is looking like wave ‘i’ down is now underway,
with a small 5/3 pattern to the downside now in place off that wave (ii) high.
If we see a break of 129.00 again tomorrow,
I think that will rule out the alternate count for wave (ii).
A break of the 128.50 low will confirm that the larger wave [iii] down has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii] to continue lower again and break 129.00.
the wave (ii) high at 130.14 must hold.