Good evening to all!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It think the ending diagonal idea for wave (c) is a good fit for the recent action.
An ending diagonal wave is made up of five moves of three waves each.
And each internal wave within wave (c) has traced out a three wave move.
This is very evident in wave ‘v’.
The price is now up near the target area at 1.1110,
Wave ‘v’ should hit that level soon to complete wave (c),
and then I will look for a turn lower again to begin wave [iii] down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete with a break of the 1.1110 target.
A decline back below 1.0990 again at wave ‘iv’
will be the first signal that wave (i) of [iii] is getting started.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Todays rally pushed cable up to the next resistance level at 1.2865.
This level marks a low within the previous wave [i] decline.
Also,
cable has now reached the 62% retracement level of the whole wave [i] decline.
Add to that the clear three wave rally off the lows,
and we get a pretty clear picture of a completed counter trend rally.
The next major move in cable will be to the downside according to this pattern.
Tomorrow;
Wave (c) looks stretched now so we should see an end to the rally tomorrow.
Watch for a drop back towards 1.2516 at the previous fourth wave.
This will signal wave (i) of [iii] has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has held up well given the rally in both EURUSD and GBPUSD today.
The price has fallen slightly off Tuesdays high but it looks corrective at the moment.
this is labelled as wave ‘iv’ of (v) now complete.
Wave ‘v’ should come in overnight and carry the price back above 109.00 again to complete the larger wave (v) and [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to complete soon with one more push higher.
Price should hold above 108.46 at wave ‘i’.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Stocks corrected lower off the wave ‘iii’ high today but it is hard to know if the correction is over just yet.
Wave ‘iv’ can take a while to unfold in most cases,
so we will have to wait and see where the pattern goes.
If we have a small triangle in play for wave ‘iv’ then we should see a sideways trade for another day,
before we turn higher again in wave ‘v’ of (v) of [iii].
A break of 27120 again in a sharp move will signal wave ‘v’ of (v) has begin.
And we should see that happen before the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold above 26880 at wave ‘i’ pink.
If wave [iii] does complete this week,
then we are looking at a decline next week in wave [iv].
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
GOLD has held above initial support at 1474 for now.
The price has moved higher again,
and I am leaning towards this rally the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Only a clear impulsive break above 1520 again will favor that bullish short term count now.
But I remain hopeful!
Tomorrow;
the main goal for the moment is for price to hold above 1474.
A break of the wave ‘i’ high again will be a good signal.
We do need to see a rally begin soon in order to stick with this particular bullish count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ are taking a slightly different configuration today.
There is a three wave move higher underway off the recent low.
That suggests wave ‘ii’ is now topping out this evening as a flat correction.
And we should see wave ‘iii’ of (i) begin tomorrow.
A break of 52.43 will signal that wave ‘iii’ is underway.
And that should carry price down towards 512.36 again over the next few sessions.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and turn lower again into wave ‘iii’ down.
54.95 must hold.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has corrected lower today also.
This move is labelled wave ‘iv’ of (v) for the moment.
Price should hold above 2972 at the wave ‘i’ high tomorrow.
And wave ‘v’ should bring us back towards resistance again by Friday evening.
This pattern should be pretty straight forwards from here
as wave [iii] [iv] and [v] complete over the next few weeks.
And once wave ‘5’ has traced out a five wave rally,
then I will look for an impulsive move lower again to begin this long awaited bear market.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to begin with a break of 3004 at the wave ‘iii’ high.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver completed a larger three wave correction this afternoon in wave ‘ii’ pink.
The price has filled the trend channel now,
and we have a small bounce in place off the previous fourth wave low at 17.25.
We cannot confirm wave ‘iii’ of (i) until we see a break of 17.96 again.
But if this small rise continues above 17.73 again tomorrow
that will favor the bullish outlook.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 16.89 again.
And wave ‘iii’ to begin with a break of 17.96.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have traded sideways for the last few days and the range is tightening.
This is a pretty good sign that a triangle is now underway in wave ‘iv’ of (i).
I suspect the triangle is completing at this evenings highs.
If this triangle is correct,
then we should see further selling tomorrow in wave ‘v’ of (i).
And that should carry us lower towards support at 128.52.
A break of that level will be a bearish signal,
and it should lead to a three wave correction in wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete in a triangle at 130.00 and then head lower again.
A break of 129.60 again will confirm wave ‘v’.