Good evening folks, the Lord’s Blessings to you all.

When the Bough Breaks – John Hussman.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Another small corrective run higher today and I am suggesting this is wave ‘ii’ of (v) rather than last Fridays count.
The pattern is still in the process of creating a bearish impulse wave lower into wave (v).
So I am going to give this pattern a good chance to develop lower over the coming days.

It is possible that wave (v) will make it all the way down to meet that lower trend line again near 1.03.
But I am not banking on that to be honest.
A break of the wave (iii) low is the minimum target here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (v) to complete and wave ‘iii’ to turn lower towards that minimum target at 1.0447 again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Wave (i) created a nice five wave pattern lower last week,
and now we have a possible three wave correction to the upside in wave (ii) in play.
The price is close to hitting the previous wave ‘iv’ high at 1.2225,
that is a good area for wave (ii) to complete.
so I will look for this correction to complete in that area and then wave (iii) of [v] should turn lower again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to top out and reverse into wave ‘i’ of (iii).
A break of 1.2121 will signal wave (iii) is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

No sign of this rally reversing today I’m afraid.
And even now I am not convinced that the rally is over yet either.
I still believe this is a ‘b’ wave correction higher though.

I have stepped up the wave count by one degree today,
this brings the internal pattern in wave (b) more in line with the previous rally.
It seemed a bit of a stretch to suggest that this rally was moving at a lower degree.
This wave count change does not alter my thoughts on the larger outlook though.
Wave [a] green should still work its way lower over the coming weeks.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (b) to top out.
Wave ‘i’ of (c) to begin a reversal by breaking back below wave ‘i’ down.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

If this rally does not turn by tomorrow evening,
then I will have to rethink the full wave count off the top.
We are just too close for comfort here now!

I have marked the low of wave ‘i’ of (iii) at 34280 this evening.
That is the cut off level for this wave count in wave (iii) blue.
A break of that level means we have an overlap in the internal pattern of wave (iii).
And that will not do!

The corrections in wave ‘ii’ and ‘iv’ are still in proportion at the moment.
Wave ‘iv’ is about 1.6 times as large,
and relatively equal in time at the moment.
So the label still fits at the moment.

I am looking for a drop back below last weeks lows at 33450 again to save this wave count now.
So tomorrows trade is going to be key.

If the price does break that invalidation level at 34280 then I will switch to a 1,2 1,2, pattern at a larger degree here.
We will cross that bridge if we get to it.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ of ‘v’ to fall back into the 33450 level to bring this count back in line again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has stabilized below last weeks highs at wave ‘iii’ today.
This action is viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (iii) at the moment.
And the wave count suggests wave ‘v’ of (iii) will push higher again in wave ‘v’ of (iii) as shown.
The overall rally in wave [i] should break above the 1950 level with ease when it is complete.
But it looks like we will get a series of steps higher over the rest of this week to complete the larger wave [i] green.
The invalidation level for this wave count lies at 1885 at the wave ‘i’ high.
A break of that level will switch the bias back to the downside again in the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete a five wave rally above 1933 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The highs of the session today reached just above that 87.00 level again and now we see a spike lower again.
The high of the session almost hit the upper trend line to close out the channel.
So I will admit that wave (c) is a little short of the mark.
A throw over in wave (c) of [ii] would be a more convincing way to top in wave [ii].
We will see how this decline develops tomorrow to see if we get confirmation of a turn into wave (i) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to hold at todays highs.
Wave (i) of [iii] should fall back into the 82.00 area to signal the reversal is on for wave [iii].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am looking at a possible expanded flat wave ‘2’ of ‘v’ today as an explanation for this new lower high.
I will admit that the pattern off the top here is in danger of being broken again.
And if that happens,
it will be very hard to argue in favor of this pattern anymore.

A quick drop tomorrow to begin wave ‘3’ will be very welcome.
and that wave ‘b’ low at 4267 again will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ is underway.
At the moment though,
we are sitting pretty close to the edge for this pattern now.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) lies at 4429.
that is the invalidation level for this wave count overall.
I want to see the price hold below that wave ‘iv’ high.
Wave ‘v’ will be confirmed with a break of support at 4267 again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is holding close to the top of wave (i) again tonight and there is no sign that wave (ii) has begun yet.
21.73 marks the initial target level for wave (ii),
and that level also marks the 50% retracement level of wave (i).
It looks like wave (ii) should form a bullish higher low in that area later this week.
At that point we can look higher again into wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
The rally over the last week requires a reasonable retracement to reset the action again before running higher into a third wave.
Watch for wave (ii) to fall in three waves and hit 21.73 as an initial target.