Good evening to you all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is stepping higher in wave (c) slowly but surely.
The rally seems a little stunted looking at the price action.
This shows a note of hesitation in the trade,
and that might favor the alternate count now.
Even so,
the alternate count requires a five wave rally out of the correction in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
so we should see another pop higher tomorrow in the main wave count and the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher to the upper resistance line at 1.1109.
A break of 1.0940 will trigger the alternate count shown circled in red.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Well.
Sometimes the wave count surprises even little ole me!
We were looking for a rally in wave ‘c’ of (ii),
and that rally came in with a bang today!
The rally today in wave ‘c’ has now broken the target at 1.2413 labelled wave ‘a’.
And wave (ii) has completed an expanded flat correction at todays highs.
So;
At this point we have a bearish impulse wave in-place to the downside in cable.
Five waves down in wave (i),
and a three wave correction higher in wave (ii).
Wave (iii) down is now expected to begin soon.
And this decline may well be a whopper!
Tomorrow;
now we need to see a drop off todays highs in wave ‘i’ of (iii) in five waves.
Watch for a drop back below 1.2300 again as wave ‘i’ begins.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 1.2195.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is up today but I must admit the action in wave (iii) is not ideal.
This may simply be a series of smaller impulse waves to get wave (iii) underway,
so I will give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish count for now.
As long as we keep heading higher,
there is no reason to change the outlook in wave [i].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to push above 108 and hold that level.
A break of 108.47 will strongly favor the bullish count.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I have taken a slightly different view of this weeks action tonight.
The recent declines and rallies are all unfolding in in three wave patterns.
And the price range continues to contract over the last few days trading.
This action is starting to look like a triangle in wave (iv) grey.
If this is correct,
the price will contract again tomorrow and Monday,
as waves ‘d’ and ‘e’ of (iv) complete this triangle.
Then wave can expect wave (v) to drop out of the triangle pattern
and break support at 25740 and a minimum to complete wave [i] down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘d’ of (iv) to drop in three waves again
and complete above 26030 at the wave ‘b’ low.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The drop today off Wednesdays high can be viewed in two ways.
Both are corrective,
and both wave counts should lead us to new highs over the next week.
The first interpretation shows wave (ii) as a larger three wave pattern.
this is likely a flat correction with todays drop coming in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
Wave (ii) should complete with a quick break of 1486 and return higher in wave (iii) from there.
The alternate count shows todays decline as wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
If 1486 holds tomorrow,
that should lead to a rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coming week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete at 1486.
If we see a spike higher off the low of wave (ii)
that will indicate wave (iii) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil fell overnight to create another higher low above 51.00.
That low completed a larger wave (b) in three waves.
And todays rally is now viewed as wave (c) of [ii].
The price is already rallying in wave ‘iii’ of (c) this evening.
And we are drawing close to the high of wave (a) at 54.00 as I write.
So I think the end is close for wave [ii] now.
Wave (c) of [ii] should complete five waves as part of a flat correction.
And then we can expect wave [iii] down to get underway next week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher for at least tomorrows trade.
Wave (c) will meet the upper trend line at about 54.60.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is tracing out an identical pattern to the DOW now.
Wave (iv) of [i] seems to be tracing out a five wave contracting triangle.
With waves ‘d’ and ‘e’ left to complete the correction in wave (iv).
At that point the price should drop below 2850 again at a minimum in wave (v) of [i].
So it looks like the sideways action will continue for another few sessions as wave (iv) closes out.
Tomorrow;
watch for 2948 to hold at the wave ‘c’ high.
Wave ‘d’ of (iv) should drop into the lower trend line at about 2890 in three waves.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is stuck within a small second wave correction today.
The price has held above 17.26 so far,
and the decline off yesterdays high seems to be in three waves.
So this action suggests wave ‘iii’ is underway now,
and we should see a rally above resistance at 18.74 over the coming days.
If the price breaks 17.25 again,
then wave ‘ii’ will still be in force.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to hold above 17.25 and push higher again towards resistance.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds fell today in a nice impulsive move lower.
The initial support level at 130.78 was broken this evening.
This is the high of the previous wave ‘a’.
and this is the first signal that wave ‘i’ of (i) of [iii] has now begun.
We can’t get too excited just yet,
Wave ‘i’ down needs to create a five wave move off the high
and break 129.63 at a minimum in order to heighten the bearish potential.
This is still a good start.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower towards that 129.63 level in a five wave pattern.