Good evening to you!
Lets get down to business immediately!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The price spiked lower today to fill the trend channel.
The low of the session so far is 1.0943,
the action looks corrective off the wave ‘i’ high
so I expect that wave ‘ii’ is near to completion.
But we have to wait for a return higher again in wave ‘iii’ and a break of 1.1000 to confirm that.
Tomorrow;
1.0904 must hold.
watch for wave ‘iii’ to begin with a rally above 1.1000.
Wave ‘iii’ should bring us up towards resistance at 1.1109.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Although cable has created a very slight new low below 1.2202 today,
The decline still looks to be in a three wave structure,
so wave ‘b’ still fits the action.
This suggests the correction in wave (ii) is not yet complete.
And wave ‘c’ needs to rally from here
to break 1.2413 again at the wave ‘a’ high.
At that point wave (ii) will have completed an expanded flat correction.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete with a rally in five waves up to the wave ‘a’ high.
A break of 1.2330 will confirm wave ‘c’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY fell today quite sharply which was against the expected action.
The drop off the recent high is in three waves,
so I have labelled this decline as wave (ii) of [i].
The recent high takes the wave (i) label
Where wave (i) is a possible wedge pattern off the low.
We need to see a rally again tomorrow to a new high above 107.46 to confirm wave (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [i] to continue higher in a five wave form.
106.47 must hold.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Another sharp drop today off the wave (iv) high.
This should be the first move lower in wave (v) of [i],
and I have labelled todays move as part of wave ‘i’ of (v).
Wave ‘i’ has only traced out a three wave move lower so far,
so we should see another drop early tomorrow to complete wave ‘i’,
and then a possible recovery in wave ‘ii’ by tomorrow evening again.
I have filled in the path for the alternate count this evening also.
This shows a five wave move circled in red in wave ‘5’,
to a final all time high.
I dont favor this interpretation,
but I can not rule it out yet either.
Another drop below 25740 again would rule out this count,
but I think it is useful to have at this point.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (v) to move lower again back below 26000 to complete.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold may have completed wave ‘ii’ of (iii) at the session low this afternoon at 1497.
The price is higher off that low again this evening,
so it is possible that wave ‘iii’ is now underway.
If we see a rally tomorrow that break 1520,
that will confirm wave (iii) has begun.
And the move higher in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should break above the 1554 high of wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
At the moment things are looking positive and wave [v] should now be underway.
If so we will see new highs above 1554 soon enough.
Watch for the low of wave (ii) to hold at 1486,
and a break of 1519 again in wave (iii).
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has dropped again in wave ‘c’ of (ii) today.
the price has completes a three wave decline to a higher low above 51.00 as expected.
So this action may have completed wave (b) at the session lows of 51.80.
The idea of a flat correction higher in wave [ii] is still in play this evening.
This pattern calls for another short term rally in wave (c) to about 55.00 over the coming days.
Wave (c) will complete a 3,3,5, correction.
And then I will look for a drop again to begin wave [iii] later next week.
Tomorrow;
watch for the wave (b) low to hold at 51.80.
Wave (a) should continue higher tomorrow and break the wave (a) high.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P took that same hit today and fell off the wave (iv) high.
The price found support at the 2898 low of wave ‘b’ and bounced slightly,
before turning lower again this evening.
I have labelled todays decline as wave ‘i’ of (v) of [i].
Wave (v) should continue lower for the rest of the week as shown.
A break of 2800 should complete wave (v),
and the larger five wave decline in wave [i] off the high.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete five waves down at 2890 or so.
Wave ‘ii’ of (v) will then correct in three waves.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver fell into a double bottom overnight in wave ‘ii’ pink.
But the price has pushed higher today to break above 17.80 again this evening
in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
It looks like we are finally turning a corner out of the corrective phase over the last few weeks.
And wave (i) up should retrace most of,
if not all of the decline in wave [iv].
tomorrow;
watch for 17.25 to hold and wave ‘iii’ to continue higher.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should push to 18.74 by the end of the week.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The three wave rally in wave (ii) is still intact tonight.
But the bond market is bid higher every time there is the whiff of a decline in stocks.
Today was no different.
The price is flirting with the 132.39 high again today,
A break of that level will invalidate the short term count.
So we must see a decline tomorrow along with the stock market in wave ‘i’ of (iii).
in order to reaffirm the bearish outlook.
Tomorrow;
watch for 132.39 to hold again,
Wave ‘i’ down should break 129.63.