Hi there everyone.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD should begin a five wave rally in wave (c) next week.
I have been looking for this correction in wave [ii] to close out for a while now,
the pattern in keeps developing and getting more complex,
but the overall scenario remains the same.
We need a three wave correction in place before wave [iii] down can get underway fully.
Monday;
watch for wave (c) to get underway properly next week.
A break of 1.1025 will be enough to confirm wave (c) is underway.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has traded flat today after a five wave decline into the low of wave ‘iii’ completed.
This is labelled as wave ‘iv’ now underway.
And it is not clear what form wave ‘iv’ will take yet.
Wave will trace out at least three waves,
and it must complete below 1.2411 at wave ‘i’.
A simple zigzag correction should end at 1.2340.
and another break of 1.2270 to the downside again will signal wave ‘v’ of (i) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete,
wave ‘v’ down reach towards the 1.2100 handle.
Then we can look for a correction in wave (ii) late next week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Wave [b] may have completed at the session high today.
the price is off that high again this evening,
so the internal pattern in wave [b] seems to be a 3,3,3 combination wave.
If the price falls below 107.40 on Monday,
that will signal that wave [b] is likely finished at todays high.
Monday;
So far wave ‘B’ is pretty complex looking.
So I suspect wave [c] will be the same.
Watch for wave [c] to begin on Monday
and fall towards the 106.65 target for the rest of the week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Well here we go again eh!
The market stalled below the declining trend line today
after another small three wave rally to a lower high yesterday.
The DOW is selling off again this evening and approaching the 26700 level
which is a move it the right direction at least.
The next support at 26400 is more significant though,
so I will be looking for this sell off the continue on Monday.
I know we have a long way to go before calling a top in place at wave [ii],
but I am cautiously optimistic that the market is finally giving in to the downside!
Monday;
The job next week remains the same,
watch for five waves down to complete in wave (i) of [iii].
I would like to see wave (i) get back below 26000 before it is complete.
One step at a time though.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
If the triangle in wave [iv] is now done and dusted,
that could mean wave [v] is about to carry the price mush higher over the coming weeks.
And if that is the case,
It spells danger ahead for the stock market.
As a rising gold price should equal a rising level of fear and risk adversity.
Both wave counts complement each other in that sense.
The price fell for much of the day,
to complete a three wave decline in wave (e) blue as shown.
Wave (e) held above the level of wave (c) so the triangle is safe for now.
The spike higher this evening is favoring the bullish count for sure.
And I want this rally to continue Monday and push above 1511 in wave ‘i’.
Wave (i) blue will be confirmed with a break of 1436.
Monday;
Watch for wave (i) to continue higher.
The price must hold above 1488 from here on out if wave (i) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
It is hard to know whether todays low is the final low for wave [i],
or if it is only wave (iii) of [i] as shown in the alternate count.
We will just have to wait and see how the current action develops.
If the current corrective action holds holds in a tighter range
and completes below 57.50 on Monday,
that will favor the alternate count.
If we see another drop below 55.00 again,
then I will switch to the alternate count.
Both scenarios call for a low in wave [i] soon,
And then wave [ii] should rally in three waves again.
Wave [iii] down is drawing near now,
so the action next week will be crucial.
Monday;
lets see how this sideways action completes on Monday.
A rally back above 58.00 again will signal wave [ii] is in force.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The action this evening is finally moving in favor of the bearish count!
The S&P is close to breaking initial support this evening at 2940,
it may happen before the close.
2940 it the high of the previous wave (a) of [ii],
and if that level breaks,
it will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
I want this decline to continue and even pick up some momentum early next week.
This will shift the bias in the market firmly towards the bearish side.
Monday;
The outlook here is similar to the Dow,
we need a five wave decline in wave (i) to complete next week.
Watch for a break of 2940 in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver reached the minimum target for wave (c) today by breaking the wave (a) low at 17.38.
this price is back off the lows this evening along with gold,
so it is possible that wave (i) has begun off that low.
Although we will need more upside no Monday to confirm it.
Wave (i) should easily push above 18.74 at the previous wave (b) high.
If it happens next week,
that action should be enough to confirm the turn into wave [v] has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave (i) to push higher in a five wave pattern towards the wave (b) resistance.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The action off Thursdays low still looks corrective so far.
The price is just drifting sideways in a trend channel,
and it has not threatened the wave (ii) high yet.
This is even more interesting since we have a reasonable sell off occurring in stocks this evening,
and bonds are not reacting to that selloff in a meaningful way.
This action adds to the idea that wave (ii) has topped and wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to continue lower and break 128.50 at a minimum.
A five wave decline from here will confirm wave (iii) is underway.
That is it for another week, and boy does it fly!
the evenings are closing in on us here in Ireland now,
and the rain is back with vengeance!
Winter is coming,
as they say in game of thrones!
I hope to have the new payments software
and lower pricing scheme up and running by the end of next week.
I will let you know when all is operational.
Enjoy your weekend,
God speed and God bless.
Aurevior mes amis.
Enda.