Good evening to you folks.

God’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD sure turned south with a vengeance this week.
The new count is pretty much confirmed now after two days of solid declines.
the action fits well with the wave ‘iii’ of (iii) labels,
and we have hit the initial target level for wave (iii) down at 0.9696.
This level is where wave (iii) and (i) reach equality.

Next week;
Wave (iii) should take another two sessions to complete I suspect.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to find a low on Monday and then turn higher into wave ‘iv’.
Wave ‘v’ should begin on Tuesday.
The larger pattern in wave [v] green should take at least to the end of next week to complete.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Well todays sharp drop has extended lower and now it seems the wave count need to account for that a little better.
I have shown todays acceleration lower as wave (iii) of [v].
And the internal pattern in wave (iii) has now traced out a five wave pattern itself.
Like EURUSD,
I want to see a corrective rise in wave (iv) early next week and then a further decline should close out wave [v] later in the week.

Monday;
Watch for wave [v] to complete a five wave decline by the end of next week.
I know this decline looks impossible to stop now,
The market seems sure that cable is set to drop below parity and stay there.
sentiment is very negative on cable these days,
but it is times like these that reversals tend to begin.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The rise off the lows of wave [iv] has traced out three waves up so far.
I have labelled this as a series of impulsive patterns.
And tonight’s high is wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Wave (iii) must continue higher next week.

Monday;
the minimum target for wave [v] lies at the wave (b) high at 145.95.
Wave (iii) up should break that high easily.
And only a break below 140.28 again will invalidate this pattern.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

This evening the market has hit a new 22 month low after all the talk in the media calling a bottom over the summer,
now we have seen all those summer gains wiped out in less than a month,
and even now we are not yet into the main thrust of this new leg of the bear market.

The 4hr chart shows this decline as wave (iii) down still underway.
The main target for this wave to complete lies at 27700 where wave (iii) reaches 162% of wave (i).

The hourly chart shows the internal pattern of wave (iii).
and now I am labelling this move as wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii).
So we are dead in the center of the wave (iii) pattern at the moment.

I expect wave ‘3’ black to complete a five wave decline itself before we see a consolidation in wave ‘4’.
At the moment next week is looking like a pretty harsh down week as wave (iii) continues lower.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to complete five waves down near 28500 before wave ‘4’ begins a corrective move sideways for a day or so.
The high at wave ‘ii’ must hold for this pattern to remain valid.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The action today is actually pointing to a slowing downside momentum in my view.
Even though we have a new low in the pattern,
the action this week is very overlapping,
and that does suggest we are close to a low for the larger pattern now.
Wave ‘v’ can still drop into the trend line to complete but I am more open to the idea that we will see a final low in wave ‘v’ next week,
and even the initial move higher to suggest the whole corrective phase in wave (4) blue is done.
The most important level above now is 1735 as a break of that level will signal wave [v] is done.

Monday;
Lets see if wave ‘c’ of ‘v’ can find that final low early in the week.
A break below the trend line followed by a spike rally above 1688 again will be a god signal that the decline has exhausted itself.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I’m not sure if the bearish pattern has been confirmed today,
but we definitely took a big step towards it that much is for sure.

I have switched to that bearish count this evening.
Wave ‘2’ is now shown as a running flat correction.
And now we have an extension lower into wave (iii) of [iii] on the cards.
The market broke 81.00 today and that was enough to make the switch.

If this count is correct,
then we have another nod in favor of the larger market outlook turning very bearish indeed.
This bear market has the potential to pull crude back below the 20.00 level over the next few months.
And I know that seems a bit wild,
but it is where this pattern is pointing at the moment.
And If we do slide into a worldwide depression over the next year,
then there is no stopping how low crude can go.

Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) down to retrace out a five wave decline into the 73.00 area.
We have a cluster of Fib targets there.
Wave (iii) will reach 162% of (i) at 73.87.

I want to see the 81.00 level hold as wave (iii) develops.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P broke through the first support level at 3720 today after a steady day of declines.
The market was about to break the lower support at 3635 at the lows,
but we have a bounce to close the session this evening,
and with that the market gets a pass on registering a new low for the year.
Only just though!

The main pattern I am working with here is the idea that we have a third wave decline underway within wave ‘iii’ pink.
So we should see continued decline over the next week with only a few small corrective rallies along the way.
Wave ‘iii’ pink should reach into the 3480 area at the 162% extension of wave ‘i’.

If this short term pattern is correct,
then wave (iii) blue is well underway now.
And if we look at the 4hr chart we can see the initial target for that wave
and also get a picture of how bad next weeks trade could be!

Wave (iii) has a minimum target at the 3220 level where wave (i) and (iii) reach equality.
Ideally I want to see wave (iii) reach the 162% extension level of wave (i).
That gives us a target at 2700.
That is a wide target range I know,
but I do favor the lower target level with this setup now in play.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to hit the 3590 level at a minimum,
where wave ‘1’ and ‘3’ reach equality.

If that does not happen,
then I will have to rethink this hourly count.
A break of 3827 again will rule out this short term pattern.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The action in silver was hit by the general selling that occurred elsewhere.
After todays drop below 19.00 it is hard to stick with the previous pattern in wave ‘4’.
and now I am looking at a running flat correction in play.

Todays decline is not a five wave pattern yet,
but that could easily develop on on Monday with a break below 18.50 in wave (i).
If we see a corrective lower high build in wave (ii) early next week,
then we should expect another decline phase to begin into wave ‘5’ over the following few weeks.
The target for wave ‘5’ lies at about 15.00 now.

Monday;
Watch for wave (i) to break 18.50 to signal the top is in at wave ‘4’.
Then a corrective lower high should form on Tuesday in wave (ii).