Good evening to you folks.

God’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

well todays decline has all but confirmed the worst for EURUSD.
Just when you though the bearish sentiment had maxed out,
then the pattern extends lower.

I have switched to the alternate count this evening for wave [v] because of this action.
And now it seems we are set to fall all the way to 0.95 before we find a final low for wave (B).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v] to continue lower as shown.
the initial target for wave (iii) lies at around the 0.97 area.
That is where wave (iii) reaches equality with wave (i).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is moving lower along the pattern reasonably well again today.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
which actually matches the EURUSD count again.
So wave (iii) should stay in force for the rest of the week.
And wave (iii) has a target at 1.1190 where wave (iii) hits the 162% extension of wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to fall into the 1.1250 area before wave ‘iv’ should correct sideways again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Given the fact that both atlantic pairs are firmly pointed south again,
then I suspect this short term wave count will be invalidated soon enough.
For the moment this pattern holds,
and as long as that lower high wave ‘ii’ holds then the bearish pattern is valid.

I have changed the internal count in wave ‘C’ tonight though.
There is a chance that this general corrective nature of the action over the last few weeks
is actually setting up a three wave decline into wave ‘C’.
rather than the usual five wave decline I would normally expect.
We will see if this new count describes the action a little better over the next few days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 145.00 to hold.
Wave ‘iii’ of (c) must drop below 142.56 again to stay with this pattern.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It has been quite a choppy evening in the market and to be honest,
there is not a whole lot of insight to be got from todays trade.
The main count is slightly different for waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ this evening,
but nothing drastic.

The only thing that I can say for certain is this,
the idea that wave ‘iii’ is underway this week has not been ruled out by todays trade.
That is a minimal statement I know,
but I cant confirm anything after todays action.

So I remain patient here,
with one eye on the very real possibility that a third wave acceleration can begin this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 31150.
I want to see a break below the lower support at 29650 in wave ‘iii’ this week in order to confirm the short term count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Whipsaw is the name of the game after the fed speech today.
And gold is no different here.
With a rapid spike rally and now an equally fast decline off the top this evening.
The price action seems range bound between 1688 at the wave ‘ii’ low,
and 1653 at last Fridays lows.
Typically I would just call this a correction to the upside and expect the larger pattern to continue lower,
but these are not very typical times at the moment eh!

If the current decline continues,
there is a reasonable chance that we will see wave ‘v’ of this ending diagonal extend into a larger three wave pattern much like wave ‘iii’.

Tomorrow;
lets see if that 1653 low can hold again and wave ‘i’ can finally get going.
A break of that low will extend the wave ‘v’ decline as suggested.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude took a hammering today as wave ‘ii’ has now formed an expanded flat correction.
The higher low is still holding above 81.75.
At the moment the main count is still in play for wave (iii) up.
Obviously the margin for error here is very tight,
so that low at wave (ii) is critical now.

Tomorrow;
The alternate count will get a major boost if that low at 81.75 breaks.
So that level must hold tomorrow.

Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to push higher and break 89.66 to confirm the pattern.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

So much for that summer rally eh!

The market has shifted to the downside again this evening.
And with that move the possibility for this wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ acceleration is building again.
The price is now closing at the low of the session,
This does leave the option of a gap lower at the open tomorrow
which would fit well with the wave count for a wave ‘iii’ acceleration.
So tomorrow might bring a waterfall moment for this pattern.
The two lower support levels at 3720 and 3635 are the initial obvious targets for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to hit.
A break of that lower support may well just break the back of this market completely.
And then the real progress in the larger pattern can be made.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to hold at 3919.
If this is wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ down,
then we should see the declines continue for the rest of this week and a break of support will come also.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver did not manage to push higher as I have been expecting in wave (v) of [c].
The main wave count is not ruled out yet though,
as the action today may be a first step higher into wave ‘iii’ of (v).
I will stick with this count until we see a break of the wave ‘ii’ low at 19.05.
A break of that level will really hurt this wave [c] wave count.
A break of 18.57 again will invalidate the short term count altogether.
So we are at another critical point in the silver pattern.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for the wave ‘ii’ low to hold at 19.05.
WAve ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 20.02.