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Hi everyone,
its been a nail biting day in stocks,
all the signs point to a topping market but will we get another high before turning down into the bearmarket?
Its too close to call now,
so lets see how the day closed out.
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EURUSD
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It was a game of who can be the biggest policy dumb-ass today!
EURUSD got whacked after the ECB came out with some idiotic comments about endless QE.
the price fell to 1.0926 just 1 pip above the low of wave (b).
But those comments were matched in idiocy by the potus!
Another taunt for QE to the end of the earth!
It seems like both entities do not like bond holders one bit!
As the policies that were spouted today would amount to the destruction off value all EU govt bonds.
and the same would happen for the US bond market if the potus got his way.
Your pension fund would be toast!
We have truly entered the twilight zone!
As for the wave count,
The short term count is still in play after the snap rally off the low.
Wave 'iii' up is still valid for now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the rally to continue tomorrow in wave 'iii'.
109.25 must hold.
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GBPUSD
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Cable pushed higher off the lows of the session today,
but we have not seen wave 'v' break above resistance yet.
The action in wave 'iv' is still corrective,
and wave 'v' should push higher tomorrow to complete the larger structure in wave (c).
We are close to the end of this rally now,
so next week should mark a turn lower to begin a large third wave down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to hold at 1.2282 and wave 'v' to break 1.2384 to complete the rally.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY dropped overnight to a low of 107.51 in wave 'iv' of (iii).
The price has now regained all of the loss this evening,
so it is likely that wave 'v' of (iii) is now underway off that low.
The ideal target for wave (iii) lies at 109.00,
this is where wave (iii) reaches 162% of wave (i).
I dont hold out much hope that we will get that high though!
Especially with that alternate count hanging over us.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to hold at 107.51.
If that level breaks again,
I will have to consider the alternate count more seriously.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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I am surprised that the stock market didn't take a hit from those comments today.
Given the fact that the potus announced that he wants to trash the value of the USD with endless monetary financing!
But the market has held pretty solid today
and just brushed off any negative consequences.
The DOW is still below the all time high at this evenings close.
So the bearish setup is still valid in wave [ii].
although I will admit that it is too close for comfort now!
Tomorrow;
I will just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.
If we sell off with a sharp spike lower,
then we are back in the game and wave (i) down is a reality.
The all time high at 27398 must hold now.
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GOLD
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GOLD rallied overnight reaching back towards 1520 again.
But the price has sold off again today.
I think this can be viewed as a correction higher in wave 'iv' of (c).
With wave 'v' of (c) now underway off the high.
Wave (c) should reach the target at 1480 by next week.
Then we will have a nice three wave expanded flat correction complete.
And we can begin to look higher again in a possible wave [v] rally.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude has completed a five wave decline off this weeks high.
Todays low is either wave 'i' of (i) of a really larger decline in wave '3',
Or the low of an expanded flat correction in wave 'ii' of (c).
This now becomes the alternate count as shown.
If we see a three wave correction higher off todays lows,
that will increase the chances that wave '2' is done
and wave '3' down is taking over.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave correction in wave 'ii' to complete at about 56.50.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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There is a five waves decline now in place off the recent high in the 10YR bond.
The price is back below 130 again,
and the long suffered uptrend in wave (2) now looks close to a turning point.
If wave (i) down is now complete,
then we should expect a three wave rally to begin in wave (ii) over the coming few days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'v' of (i) to find a low soon,
A break above 130.40 again should begin wave (ii).
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SILVER
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Silver topped out at 18.46 after a three wave recovery off the wave (a) low.
This high is now viewed as wave (b) of [iv],
Wave (c) of [iv] should now begin.
Wave (c) will likely fall in five waves to complete a flat correction.
And the target remains at about 16.90 to complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower for the coming few sessions.
Wave 'i' of (c) should form a lower high below 18.46.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is still below the all time high this evening.
Even though I know this is now an unlikely outcome,
I am still hopeful that wave [ii] can complete below 3027,
and wave [iii] down can carry us lower over the coming week.
A break of the high will force me to go back to the drawing board.
And given the precarious state of the market in general,
I cant see a new all time high lasting very long anyway!
Tomorrow;
As with the DOW,
I will just have to wait and see what the market holds for us tomorrow.
A five wave decline off this high will signal wave (i) has begun.
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