Good evening to you folks,

God’s blessings to you all tonight.

The day is drawing to a close so its about time that I get this weeks updates started!

I must apologize to you all for not informing you of Mondays market holiday,
and hence no market update.
I usually follow the NYSE schedule,
you can find that here- https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

Yesterday I recorded a presentation for the Synergy Traders Elliott wave conference.
It is hosted by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com.

I am not sure if they will use it in their conference,
but I have linked that below for you if you wish to take a look.
It is a standard video update except much longer,
and I start each market by looking at the weekly and daily charts.
So you will get a very wide angle view.

Now,
on with the show.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD took another turn lower this morning and now we have a possible five wave ending diagonal pattern in place at the session lows.
I can not be certain about this pattern for wave ‘v’ until we get a confirming rally out of the lows,
but the early signs are promising at least.
The price has bounced to a small higher low this evening above 0.9863.
If that is the final low for this decline phase,
then we should see a five wave rally build off that level over the next few sessions.
A break above the previous fourth wave high at 1.0081 will be the first level to watch for.

Tomorrow;
So now I begin the task of searching for a reversal pattern higher to indicate that this decline is finally over for EURUSD.
It is about the last thing that people expect at this point,
so the stage is set for at least a relief rally.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable posted a small rally today off the recent lows at 1.1442.
At the moment I am calling this advance as part of a correction higher into wave [iv].
and I am still expecting a new low to form in cable in wave [v] of ‘5’ over the following weeks.
The key level to indicate that wave (1) has completed lies at 1.2002.
That marks the wave [i] low,
and if that level breaks,
then we are track for a large rally into wave (2) to follow.

Tomorrow;
I am going to stick with the main count as it is still valid.
Todays rally is labelled wave (a) of [iv],
so expect to see a higher low in wave (b) and then a final push into wave (c) over the coming few days.
Wave [iv] should hold below the previous fourth wave high at 1.1900.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The yen was the big loser today as we see USDJPY rally even though the other two pairs have turned higher also.
This rally can still be viewed in the context of a final push into wave (v) of [c].
And tonight I have shown another interpretation of that wave [c] rally to account for todays rally.
Todays sharp rally is viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (v).
And this count suggests wave (v) will complete five waves up after one more correction and spike to a new high.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to complete this week.
We may even see the initial move lower back into the trend channel to signal wave [i] of ‘C’ is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow broke to a new low this morning and since then we have basically flatlined for the rest of the session.
This new low can still be viewed in the context of a correction in wave (ii),
where wave (ii) is an expanded flat correction.

Wave ‘a’ traced out three waves up,
and now we have three waves down to a new low in wave ‘b’.
And if this count is correct we will see a rally in wave ‘c’ break above 32040 again at the wave ‘a’ high.

I will be forced to switch to that alternate count for wave (ii) if the declines continue tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the low at wave ‘b’ to hold and then a five wave rally to begin to hit 32040 at a minimum.
once wave (ii) completes later this week the market will then stand at a critical lower high with a possible wave (iii) of [iii] decline staring us in the face again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has so far failed to break that recent low at 1680 in this wave (v) decline.
I have not turned bullish with that alternate count just yet,
but I do want to see wave ‘iii’ of (v) hit a new low soon in order to confirm this count at least.
When the price does make it to a new low in wave ‘iii’,
then I can begin to make some projections to where we can look for the final lows in wave ‘v’ of (v) over the coming week.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ continue lower and break the support at 1680 in order to confirm the pattern for wave (v).

There is an option for wave (v) to form an ending diagonal pattern to complete the larger pattern.
That actually might fit the action now a little better than the standard five wave structure.
We will know soon enough on that front.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

It looks like wave ‘v’ of (i) is on the verge of breaking to a new low today.
Wave (i) should complete at about 85.00 flat if this interpretation is correct.

The main alternate count suggests wave (ii) is already complete at Fridays highs of 90.17.
And if that scenario is correct,
then wave (iii) of [iii] has already begun.

The alternate count is very bearish indeed and calls for a severe decline to begin immediately into wave (iii) of [iii].
It is worth keeping one eye on this possibility,
but at this point I favor the main count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to find a final low near the 85.00 level,
then wave (ii) should reverse higher for the rest of the week in a corrective three wave pattern.
Wave (ii) is expected to break above 90.00 again to complete.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

It is a similar story for the S&P tonight,
but the internal pattern for wave ‘i’ down remains a little nicer than the Dow.
Even so,
todays new low occurred after a three wave decline to break 3904 at wave ‘i’.
I view this low as wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’ of an expanded flat correction.
And wave ‘c’ is expected to push back above 4020 again at the wave ‘a’ high.
The next higher target lies at 4070 at the previous fourth wave high.

Once this pattern in wave ‘ii’ completes,
then I will be on high alert for a sharp reversal to begin wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down.
And the potential for a ‘crash’ type move lower into wave ‘iii’ is quite high here.
So lets tip toe this week with some caution.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ to complete a lower high in the area of 4070.

Then keep an eye on a possible sharp acceleration lower into wave ‘iii’ down.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has turned lower again after a corrective rise into wave ‘ii’ over the last few sessions.
The pattern I am working on here suggests wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ are now complete,
and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is set to begin over the coming days.
Wave ‘iii’ should carry the price down towards the 16.00 area to complete,
If we do hit that area in wave ‘iii’,
then I think the momentum will slow down noticeably.
and then over the coming weeks we will see the final sub waves of wave ‘5’ red complete.

I terms of the overall correction in wave [2],
I think we are very close to the final low at this point.
So it is important to hang tight and remain patient until the pattern is substantially complete before jumping in on the long side again.
Another few weeks should do it for wave (C) and wave [2].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to fall towards the 16.00 handle again in five waves over the coming few days.
A break of 17.55 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.