Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 08-28-19 – Silver is about to tip over.

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Good evening to everyone.

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EURUSD

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The continuous drift lower in EURUSD over the last few sessions still has the aura of a corrective decline.
Much like the final moves in wave (b) last week,
the price action now is tight overlapping and without any downside momentum.
With this in mind,
the decline keeps its wave 'b' label this evening.
The price is at a higher low above 1.1051 and should now rally in wave 'c' of (c).

Tomorrow;
1.1051 must hold.
An impulsive spike higher off this low will signal wave 'c' has begun.

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GBPUSD

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Cable did indeed fall sharply lower today after Tuesdays new high to complete wave (c).
Todays decline is labelled wave 'i' of (i) of [iii].
If this interpretation is correct,
then we should expect cable to head much lower from here as wave [iii] takes hold fully.

I have shown a possible alternate idea for wave [ii] also this evening.
I can't shake the feeling that the correction we have just seen is just wave (a) of [ii].
with another rally yet to come to complete somewhere around 1.2500.

The action over the next few sessions will decide between these two counts.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'ii' to top out overnight and then wave 'iii' of (i) to head lower again tomorrow.
1.2300 should hold now.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY continues to hold above the recent spike low at 104.48.
And the action today looks corrective in a possible wave (b) of [ii].
The pattern calls for another drop in wave (c) to complete a corrective decline in wave [ii].
And set up for a rally in wave [iii] over the coming few weeks.

This wave count is still early days so I do want to see that rally materialize
in order to rule out another possibilities in the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to top out and then one more drop in wave (c) to break the wave (a) low at 105.58.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW continues to hold out at 26000 in wave 'ii' today.
The market is stubbornly refusing to fall in wave 'iii' just yet.
So it is likely that wave 'ii' is just extending into a larger structure.

Price has reached a slight new high above Mondays top now,
creating a three wave move in total off Fridays lows.
The action on Tuesday can be viewed as a correction in a small 'b' wave,
with todays high reaching the final top for wave 'ii'.

Wave three down beckons,
so there is every chance that begins tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'ii' to top out and roll over into wave 'iii' down.
Any weakness early tomorrow will signal that wave 'iii' down has begun.
A break of 25600 should leave the way open to break 25000 again in wave 'iii'.

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GOLD

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Gold is failing to rally at a lower high this evening.
So I think wave (c) is gearing up now and we should see further declines for the rest of this week.

I have labelled this high as wave 'ii' of (c),
and the action today does indicate a corrective move higher for sure.
But the price must hold below 1554 now
in order for this short term count to remain valid.

Tomorrow;
Wave 'iii' of (c) is expected to carry the price lower now.
A break below 1520 should signal that wave 'iii' is in force.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude also seems to be clinging on for dear life now
and refuses point blank to fall into wave 'iii' down.

The rally off Fridays lows at wave '1' is still a three wave form.
This strongly suggests a corrective move higher in wave '2' of 'iii' just like the stock market.
And just like stocks,
wave '3' of 'iii' of (iii) should push lower over the coming days
to confirm the restart of the bearmarket.
The decline this evening may well be the beginning of wave '3'.

So far price has held below 57.00,
so that level must hold tomorrow also.
If we do see a break of 57.00 I will be forced to switch to the alternate count on the 4hr chart.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave '3' down to begin with a push below 53.00.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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The rise today is corrective in nature,
so I am fairly sure that we will see a drop back into 130.00 again beginning soon.
The alternate count has a minimum target of 130.40.
But the main wave count calls for wave (i) to fall back below 129.80 from here.
And that move will signal that a larger turn is underway
at a much higher degree down into wave (3).

Tomorrow;
The main focus of this week was to identify a five wave pattern lower.
we are not there yet,
so it is a waiting game again in bonds to see where the action takes us.

Watch for 131.60 to hold at a minimum.

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SILVER

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Silver has now created a throw over above the upper trend channel line today.
This is a common occurrence in the final gasp of a fifth wave on declining momentum.
So this action only adds to the idea that wave [iii] has topped out now.
Wave [iv] down should begin soon,
if not immediately tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
As usual,
it is impossible to know what from wave [iv] will take.
So we will just have to see what wave (a) throws us and make an educated guess from there.

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S&P 500.

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It is hard to call at the moment whether wave 'ii' is complete at Tuesdays high,
or if a larger structure is developing now after todays recovery.
The price is still sitting at a lower high this evening.
So,
I am ready for a decline into wave 'iii' if that occurs,
And I think a drop below 2850 again.
should be enough to tip the balance in favor of wave 'iii'.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'iii' to begin to decline again tomorrow.
Price should hold below 2898 at the wave 'ii' high.

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