Good evening folks.

Here is a beautiful and timely quote from David Rosenberg today;

“We keep hearing on bubble vision how the S&P 500 lined up with some of the best Augusts of all time. Want to know the other Augusts that were so strong? Try 1928, 1929, 1932, 1933… and 2000. Market tops or economic depressions. Take your pick.”

And then this little doosey!

Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week. Like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet. How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin?

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Five waves up have completed off the wave (b) low formed last Thursday.
This action still fits a final wave (c) rally to complete wave [b] in green.
The price has also completed a double top at todays high registering 1.19658 today.
Wave [b] can make a new high as part of an expanded flat correction wave ‘A’.
So todays top is nothing to be worried about at all really.

Tomorrow;
The action off this high will be critical though.
Wave [c] needs to fall in five waves starting this week.
Wave [c] will be confirmed with a break of 1.1753.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

It is hard to know if todays high is the top of wave ‘iii’ of (v),
or the top of wave ‘v’ of (v).
I have shown the first interpretation this evening which will allow for a little more upside in wave ‘v’ tomorrow.
The price has already filled the the elliott trend channel give or take a few pips,
So any weakness that breaks below the 1.3283 high of wave ‘i’ again will signal that the tide may be turning again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to complete by tomorrow evening with another touch of that upper trend line.
The turn down into wave [a] green will be confirmed with a break of 1.3050.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

The main focus for USDJPY is for the completion of a very long and drawn out triangle in wave [B] as shown at the recent lows,
and now the early moves into a new uptrend for the USD in general.

The move lower last Fridays did put a dent in that outlook in the short term.
But overall the short term pattern is holding,
and I am still confident that the USD is moving out if this relentless phase of selling into a new uptrend.

Tomorrow;
The low at 105.10 should continue to hold to allow wave (iii) up to develop.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW is topping out at least five degrees of trend now,
if you look take the alternate count as valid, its 6 degrees of trend.
That may well be a clue as to why the rally seems to be never ending.
But it will end as all rallies do,
and when the next phase of selling begins,
that too will seems never ending!

The market turned lower today off Fridays top at a possible wave ‘v’.
So far the the decline looks impulsive.
But as usual we need something more substantial along with a break of support to get excited again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for Fridays high to hold and lets see if this decline can push below 28000 again to break initial resistance.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

There is no change in the outlook for gold this week.
The pattern needs another new low to complete a larger wave ‘A’ down over the coming weeks.

At the moment;
We are either completing wave [b] as a triangle as shown in the alternate count.
Or wave [c] is already underway,
and in that case wave (iii) of [c] should push lower this week with a target below the 1861 lows of wave [a].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to give way to another decline into wave (iii).
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 1902 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is falling today but the action is still within the realms of the short term pattern.

This decline may only be completing wave ‘b’ of the final leg up in wave (c) of [v].
In this case wave ‘b’ will be a flat correction and complete at 42.40 or so by tomorrow evening.
And then wave ‘c’ of (c) will rally again up towards 44.50.
That will end a three wave pattern in wave (c),
and complete a five wave ending diagonal in wave ‘C’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete with a break of 42.40 again.
Price must hold above 41.45 to stay within the current pattern.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is getting a little tired of the rally going on todays action.
At the highs this morning,
wave (c) reached equality with wave (a).
and it looks like we are pretty close to completing a five wave pattern higher in wave (c) also.
The price has created a throw-over above the upper trend line of the wedge.
and with todays decline we are moving back to that trend line again.

Tomorrow;
This is a picture of an exhausted market.
Watch for a move lower into the wedge this week.
If that decline traces out five waves down.
Then the action will get very interesting.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The correction in wave (B) is quite complicated indeed.
the action off the wave (A) low has all the hallmarks of a correction to the upside.
but we have yet to reach a high to complete the pattern.
I have shown a possible combination wave for wave (B) tonight.
this involves a simple 3 wave rally in wave ‘A,
followed by a triangle wave ‘B’,
and now another three wave move in into the highs today in wave ‘C’.

Tomorrow;
Wave (B) has touched the 78.6% retracement level twice as this correction dragged on.
and the rally is getting very anemic looking.
If we see an impulsive move lower off these levels again,
that will signal wave ‘C’ has begun.