Good evening everyone.

That question popped into my head as I wrote this evening.

Are we there yet?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-could-test-2009-low-says-longtime-bear-1522957392

The short answer is yes, but its complicated!

here we go!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We have another three wave rally into a lower high this evening.
I have labelled this as wave [b] now complete,
it is possible that wave [b] will work towards a larger three wave pattern later in the week.
But the spike to the downside off wave [b] does favor the idea that wave [c] has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to break below 1.1694 at a minimum.
But I suspect we should see more downside before wave [c] is done.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

A small three wave correction in cable also suggests a (b) wave correction is now done!
The price has moved sharply lower off that point now,
and the price is sitting at the previous wave (a) low again.
Wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (c) should create a further lower high by tomorrow morning,
and then wave ‘iii’ of (c) will be set to accelerate lower.
If all goes to plan wave [a] down will be complete by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 1.3148 and then lead to further declines.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has created three small higher lows above the recent wave [ii] low at 105.09.
But we have not seen the expected rally into wave (iii) yet.
I am still leaning in favor of that rally on the 1hr chart.
And if we see a push above 106.21 again that will be an early signal that wave (iii) has begun.

Tomorrow;
I want to see todays lows hold and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) continue higher.
The invalidation level for this count lies at 105.44.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Are we there yet?

The action these days reminds me of Bart Simpson annoying Homer repeating that same question over and over again.
I could be Bart Simpson these days!

The price gaped higher out of the gate this morning by about 200 points.
This seems to be a third wave rally with a possible wave ‘v’ pink as shown.
The action has held flat off the highs of the session,
this should be a fourth wave consolidation within wave ‘v’.
If this is correct,
wave ‘v’ will complete with another pop to the upside and that will complete the larger wave (c) and wave [c].

All this is pointing to another point of reckoning in the stock-market this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to complete as suggested.
Wave ‘v’ will reach the upper trend line at 28360 or there abouts.
The key low in the short term lies at wave ‘iv’ at 27526 cash.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The larger wave (ii) idea came to pass today with a three wave rally into the 1960 high this morning.
So far the market has dropped off that level in a possible wave ‘i’ of (iii).
The price must continue lower for the next few days to confirm this count,
but for the moment,
I am on the look out for a sharp fall this week to carry the price back towards the 1800 level.
If the price continues declining next week,
then I will consider wave ‘C’ of (4) already underway as suggested in the video this weekend.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 1962.
A break of 1910 again will signal wave (iii) down is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The pattern is crude is no clearer today than it was last Friday!
The price did rebound off that possible expanding wedge low.
So the rally off that point may well be wave (c) now finally underway.
If we do see a break of $44 again and a sharp reversal off that level,
then I will consider wave (4) complete and we can concentrate on the downside again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher into that target high over the next few sessions.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

It looks like we have a five wave pattern developing into a final high in wave ‘c’ this evening.
that will complete a three wave pattern in wave (v) or wave [v] in the short term alternate count shown.
I will expand on this alternate in the midweek video.

There is a small consolidation in the price this evening.
This should give way to another rally into a final high by Wednesday at the latest.

Tomorrow;
The initial support at 3400 should hold as long as wave ‘c’ is still developing.
A break of that level again may well be a signal of a turn.
Watch for one more push up to complete wave ‘c’ tomorrow.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

the short term pattern still favors the downside in wave ‘C’ of (C) of [2].
As long as the price holds below 27.54,
then wave ‘C’ is still in play.
The price did complete a three wave correction higher early today.
this suggests wave [ii] of ‘C’ is now complete and wave [iii] down is now underway.

Tomorrow;
a drop below 25.73 again will signal wave [iii] of ‘C’ is underway.