Good evening to you folks,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Are we about to move into the ‘FEAR’ part of this cycle, after todays reversal, the odd’s are rising for sure!

Also, there is this little problem!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has triggered the alternate count today and now it seems we are heading lower to find wave (v) of [v] again.
The price has already made a new low this evening.
And it seems likely that we will see a break of 0.9800 tomorrow.
I can count five waves down in wave (v) even now.
But there is no way of knowing if this wave (v) will extend lower to fill the larger trend channel on the 4hr chart.
This is shown as the alternate count now in the hourly chart.

If that happens,
then we will see a low in wave (v) of [v] near the 0.9600 area.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete soon and then a sharp rally to push the price back above 1.0100 again to signal that the low is in for wave (v).
A continued decline over the coming few sessions will favor the alternate count.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable broke to a new low today also below 1.1760.
This action has brought us close to a low in wave (iii) of [iii] now.
This count calls for more downside over the coming weeks to complete the larger pattern in wave ‘5’.
But for the week ahead,
we will likely see a series of steps lower in waves (iv) and (v),
followed by wave [iv] and [v].

The price must hold below 1.20 in order for this count to remain valid.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to find a low and then wave (iv) should correct higher by the mddle of this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I am still waiting for wave ‘B’ to top out,
but,
by the weakness shown by the other pairs today it seems that there is a possibility growing that this pattern I am working on here will break in favor of a continued run higher in wave (5) of [C].

I will cross that bridge if we come to it,
for the moment we still have a solid three wave pattern higher in wave ‘B’.
And that should lead to a return lower into wave ‘C’ again as I expect.

The main alternate count for wave (4) is an expanded flat correction.
In this scenario wave ‘B’ can make a new high before turning lower into an extended decline in wave ‘C’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] to top out and reverse with a sharp decline below 135.60 again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

What a difference a day makes eh?

The market is declining today at quite a pace which has really given a boost to the bearish count I am working with.
It seems that all those indicators that I was speaking about over the last weeks have finally resulted in a reversal pattern in the making.

The action today is in line with a possible third wave acceleration within wave ‘i’ as shown.
And now I am on the hunt for a completed five wave pattern lower over the rest of this weeks action.

Wave ‘i’ down is expected to break 32700 at the previous wave ‘iv’ low.
this is the first line of support within the previous structure.
And so it should mark the point that the pattern reversal happens.

Tomorrow;
Obviously I want to see a completed five wave pattern in wave ‘i’ before any correction in wave ‘ii’ begins.
Watch that support level for a break in wave ‘5’ of ‘i’.
Wave ‘ii’ should begin by midweek if all goes well in wave ‘i’.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has reached the target area I was looking at for the alternate count.
1739 marks the high of the previous wave ‘a’,
and that level should act as a bullish pivot if the alternate count is correct.

I have not switched to that alternate count yet,
but I am watching the action develop to see if it begins to favor the bullish count from here.

As for the main wave count.
The lows today seems to have completed wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’.
With another step lower left to complete a full five wave pattern in wave ‘iii’.
So,
the main count will allow for another few days of declines easily,
most likely into the end of this week to complete wave ‘v’ of (v).

Tomorrow;
wave ‘4’ of ‘iii’ is likely to consolidate the action and trace out three waves up into the 1750 area.
This correction should complete by tomorrow evening at the latest.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

We had quite the whipsaw day today with a sharp selloff followed immediately by a rally back to flat on the session.
The decline off the high last week is a three wave pattern.
And this action suggests wave (ii) is still in force here.

Todays low completes wave ‘b’ of (ii).
and then the rally suggests wave ‘c’ is underway now.
I am looking at the 78.6% retracement to complete wave (ii) this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to top out near 92.40 at that Fib target.
Wave (iii) down must begin off that high.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is very close to hitting That initial support level at the wave ‘4’ triangle this evening.
That level lies at 4114.
And I have been pointing to that low as the initial signal that a top is in for wave (ii).
Wave ‘1’ of ‘i’ is expected to break that support and then a bearish lower high in wave ‘2’ should be in place by midweek.
If this count is correct here,
then we should see an acceleration lower in wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ this week.
I am looking at the previous wave ‘a’ high as a target level for wave ‘3’.
That level lies at 3945.

Tomorrow;
The outlook from here is pretty simple.
We want five waves down in wave ‘i’ of (iii) to retrace most of the rally in wave ‘c’.
So that gives us a target for wave ‘i’ at 3720.
That may be a lot to ask for,
but if wave (iii) is now underway,
then we are looking at a much bigger decline dead ahead.

One step at a time.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver hit the 78.6% retracement level this afternoon and so far the price has bounced off that low.

We do have a five wave decline in place now for wave (c).
And if this count is correct here,
that low should complete the bullish signal in silver at the wave [ii] higher low.

I am not naïve here either.
I know that if gold continues to drop off this week as its wave count suggests,
then I’m afraid silver will go with it.

If the low at 18.13 breaks,
then we will see a decline into the 16.50 area as the next likely level for wave [2] to complete.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if a reversal pattern can build off the lows of wave (c).
A break above the 20.00 handle again will signal that a larger rally in wave [iii] has begun.