Good evening everyone.

Here is a look at how the covid shut down effected one of the Irish banks, my own bank in fact!

From

@jeuasommenulle

” Here’s what it looks like on the entire book. Blue is investment grade, orange is BB, so medium risk, grey is high risk and yellow is real shit. Down from 46% of the book being considered (super) safe, to only 7% !!! From 7% shit to… 17% shit ! This is a massive shift. “

I suspect that this is a picture that many banks are looking at right now.

And so goes the invisible great depression 2 that we are now well into the opening phase!

Roll on phase two when the dead cat bounce recognizes gravity again!

Here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Wave (c) came in today and dropped towards the previous fourth wave support.
I would still like to see wave (c) break that support at 1.1710 before any correction higher in wave [b] begins.
We will see on Monday if another drop comes to reach that target.
Either way,
it looks like later next week will bring a correction in wave [b] green.

Monday;
Watch for wave [a] to complete in the area of 1.1700.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable came down off that lower high in a very convincing fashion today in wave ‘c’.
This completes three waves down in wave (a).
The pattern in wave (a) is a 5,3,5 zigzag, and now wave (b) is set to create a lower high over the coming days.

The action this week adds weight to the idea that wave ‘D’ of the triangle has now begun.
So we should expect more downside over the coming weeks.

Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to begin and create a three wave rise into a lower high at about 1.3200.
The wave (c) will take us lower again towards the end of the week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

The action off the low at wave [ii] is a start, but I want to see a more significant move to the upside to begin wave [iii].
The pattern has so far created a bullish higher low at wave ‘ii’ pink,
this must be followed by a rally in wave ‘iii’ ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to complete wave (i) of [iii] next week.

A rally in the USD will not be a vote of confidence in the fed or the US govt,
instead it will be the side effect from a resumption of a slide into fear and tumult as a bear market in risk assets resumes.
We are on the cusp of that move now,
so wave [iii] up will be an important move.

Monday;
watch for wave (i) to continue higher early next week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has confirmed a move out of the corrective wave ‘iv’ today with a rally up above 27920 again.
I expect this is wave ‘v’ of (c) now underway.
And wave ‘v’ should trace out a five wave move with the minimum target at 28150 early next week.

Monday;
It looks like we are at the end of the road for this pattern.
The alternate count for wave [c] also shows a completing pattern in five waves.
All pattern point to an ending of this reflation rally and a resumption of the pain.

Watch for a significant move lower after a break of 28150 to signal wave [i] down is underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold broke below the wave (i) low at 1923 today and then corrected higher again this afternoon.
This action is viewed as waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii) now underway.
This pattern suggests wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will fall again on Monday and carry the price back towards 1860 again.

Monday;
Watch for a break of 1923 again in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
1956 must hold in this scenario.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

There is something strange happening in crude oil right now.
The market does not want to challenge the recent 43.56 high created 2 weeks ago.
on the other hand,
we see a series of spikes to the downside which are threatening to break support
and leave the highs in the dust!

This action should worry the bullish side of the trade.

It is surely about time that crude oil turns lower again,
but I would like to see a completed pattern in wave [v] before that happens.

Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [v] to complete at the upper trend line in the area of 44.00.
Next week I will be looking lower again to begin wave [i] down.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

We are ending the week on a high after pushing back into that all time high this evening.
it is a similar story in the S&P as with crude oil.
the more interesting action this week was to the downside,
with a series of sharp moves lower as the market woke out of a week long sleep walk which ended on wednesday.

This pattern into the high is difficult to nail down right now.
As the recent high completed with an ending diagonal.
So I am going to wait and see how this short term move shakes out to to get a little more clarity.

Monday;
The rally off the weekly low is in three waves also.
So maybe wave (v) grey is itself creating an ending diagonal to complete the larger fifth wave.
I am just going to let this pattern reveal itself over the coming few sessions.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver came down today in another stunted move as we continue to lurch into this wave ‘C’ down.
I am considering a triple combination wave for wave (C) as the action earlier this week is not impulsive.
This suggests a three wave move in wave (C) as shown.
And now we have the beginning of wave ‘C’ of (C) with waves [i] and [ii] tracing out today.

Monday;
If this pattern is correct,
then we should expect a further decline in wave [iii] green towards the 23.00 handle.
And if that happens,
then silver will be close to completing wave (C) and a very large second wave correction.
This should lead to a larger rally phase in the coming months in wave [3].