Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 08-20-19 – close to tipping again.

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Good evening everyone.

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EURUSD

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We now have a double bottom in place at 1.1065 in EURUSD.
The rise off todays low is too small to judge yet,
but the price is heading higher into the close which is a change from recent action.

There is no change on the larger pattern.
I still want to see a three wave correction in wave [ii] in place before looking lower again into wave [iii].
If wave (c) of [ii] is now underway,
then price should hold above 1.1100 tomorrow and any correction should be small.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher in a five wave rally to the upper trend line at 1.1300 over the coming days.

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GBPUSD

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Cable is on the up this evening also.
There was a very slight new low this morning which ruled out yesterdays short term count.
And the overall pattern in wave [ii] just keeps getting more complicated!
Wave (a) finished in an ending diagonal,
Then the price formed a three wave decline off that high in wave (b).
And todays spike higher should form the beginning of wave (c) up.
Normally I would look for five waves in wave 'c',
but the complexity of the correction so far suggests a three wave choppy rally.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) up to continue after a small correction in a possible wave 'ii' as shown.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY seems to be falling this evening in wave 'c' of (i) finally.

This is where the rubber meets the road for that bullish setup.
Wave 'c' should fall below 105.63 at wave 'a'
and it must complete above 104.75.

If that level breaks, then I will have to go back to the drawing board completely.
So that level is critical.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' to fall into the lower trend channel line at about 105.40,
then wave (iii) up must begin with a sharp rally to break 106.96 again.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW has just drifted sideways today off Mondays high at 26238.
the current wave count calls for a sharp drop to begin in wave (iii) imminently.
If we don't see that drop tomorrow,
and the price rallies above 26238 again,
that action will trigger the alternate count.
And then we can expect wave [ii] to complete the larger three wave pattern as discussed.

I have not discarded the current wave count yet though,
and the reason is simple.
We are so close to that tipping point down into wave [iii] now,
that I am on full alert.
Even a fall back below the declining trend channel line could do it.
So just be careful here!

Tomorrow;
Watch for 26238 to hold and wave 'i' of (iii) to spike lower.
A break of 25238 will signal that wave (iii) is underway.

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GOLD

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I have switched wave counts today and moved up by one degree.
The market has drifted sideways again for another day,
which leaves the door wide open for a triangle to form.
I think it worth changing the triangle idea to wave (b) blue.
This wave count still suggests a drop in wave (c) to come which should break 1450 at initial support.
But wave (b) will likely take another few days to complete first.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' of (b) to form another lower high below 1528 in a three wave form.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude did not make any progress today.
The price closing in the red and near the lows of the session.
The market gaped slightly lower this morning also,
which suggests an exhaustion in the rally.
So the odds are tipping in favor of the bearish short term count now.

If wave 'iii' of (iii) is about to begin,
then the price should spike lower tomorrow morning without an answer,
and then begin accelerating below 53.75 as wave (iii) picks up steam.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'ii' to hold below 57.37,
and wave 'iii' down to take over.
Wave 'iii' of (iii) should take price below the 50 handle again over the coming week.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Bonds have bid higher today again,
so far this rally can be viewed as wave 'ii' of (i).
With wave 'ii' completing an expanded flat correction.
A sharp move lower tomorrow with a break of 130.27 will signal wave 'iii' of (i) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 131.34 to hold and a further decline to begin as wave (i) down develops.

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SILVER

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Silver is rising in a more impulsive looking form than gold today.
This action suggests wave 'b' will break 17.38 at a minimum in a flat correction.
And possibly even above 17.50 in an expanded flat wave (iv).

If the price holds below 17.38 tomorrow, that will favor a triangle wave 'b'.
What ever form wave (iv) takes from here,
Silver should push below 16.50 to complete the current correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'b' to break 17.38 to complete and then turn lower in wave 'c'.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P is turning red this evening as we near the closing bell.
The price is hovering at the downward sloping trendline now.
And if we push below that tomorrow in an impulsive fashion,
that will signal wave 'i' of (iii) has taken charge.
A break below 2870 again will be enough in my mind to call wave (iii).
This is labelled the high of wave 'a' pink.
A break below that level will confirm the recent rally as a three wave correction rather than any new bullish structure.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'i' of (iii) to push lower and break 2870.

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