Good evening everyone.

Here is a statement that really hit home with me today.

From Sven Heinrich:

The same people that called for $SPX 3,400-3,600 year end targets in January and February projecting positive earnings growth for 2020 (before $SPX dropped to 2200) are now outlining $SPX 3,700-4,000 targets with negative earnings growth.

Now that is bubble mentality in action!

Here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD fell quite sharply off the recent highs today.
But the pattern into that high is not ideal.
I was looking for wave (v) to complete with a thrust out of that triangle.
But instead we seem to have a failed fifth wave to complete wave (v).

The move off the high is sharp enough to suggest that a turn is now in play for EURUSD.
So lets see if we can build an impulse wave lower over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [a] down to fall into the 1.1600 area at a minimum.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has really come off the boil today!
This decline has all but wiped out the recent spike higher in wave ‘v’ of (c).
I am labeling this decline as wave (i) or (a) of [a].
So this move lower should continue for a month at least if wave ‘D’ is now underway.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to push back below the 1.30 level again.
A break of 1.2979 at the lower extent of the triangle would be a good sign in favor of the bearish count.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has bounced in a nice impulsive manner today.
This comes off a higher low created yesterday so we may be well into creating a five wave pattern higher after this move.
I am labeling this rally today as wave ‘iii’ of (i).
I would like to see wave (i) break above the previous wave (b) high at 107.04.
That action would really be a vote in favor of the bullish setup in wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to rise into about 106.50 before any consolidation in wave ‘iv’ takes place.
Ideally we will complete five waves up this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has dropped out of the triangle wave ‘iv’ scenario today.
The pattern in wave ‘iv’ is now more like a complex flat or combination wave at the moment.
I will have to wait and see how this pans out over the coming days to see of the correction idea holds,
or if we begin to move impulsively lower again to begin wave [i].

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iv’ will meet the lower trend line of that trend channel at about 27430 again.
So lets see if the trend channel will hold the action
and if a rebound forms to the upside off that line.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has just pipped below the previous wave (b) low at 1929 today and this move is definitely in favor of the current count.
I have marked this decline as wave (i) of [c] where wave [c] will trace out a five wave decline into the lower trend channel line again.
The price will hit that lower channel line at about 1770 or so.
If the price moves much below that line,
it may be an indication that wave (4) is already in force,
rather than the lower degree wave ‘A’ of (4) that we now have in play.

Tomorrow;
If this decline is wave (i),
then wave (ii) should bring in some sort of corrective lower high before the price moves sharply lower in wave (iii).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is very quiet for a market that should have reacted to the dollar rally today.
But not so!
It seems the optimism in the crude market is even higher than I imagined these days.

I do think we are close to this point of reckoning as the market finds a top for this rally.
And then we should see some life come back into this market on the downside again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P spiked lower out of a possible ending diagonal pattern that was drifting into the highs.
This is not conclusive in any way yet,
but it sure fits with the death of upside momentum and the ending of a pattern to the upside.
But what I really need now is a five wave decline to the downside,
and some support breaks in the mix also.
But I am definitely interested in what might happen here.

Tomorrow;
There is no pattern to the downside to get working on yet.
But we still have tow more trading days this week to see if we can switch momentum to the downside.

The recent spike low came in at 3326,
if we can break that level this week with a five wave decline that will really get me interested!

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The decline in silver is less than expected given the action in gold today.
I want to see this decline move below the 25.73 level at a minimum in order to signal that wave (C) is underway.
At the moment we only have a three wave decline off the high in place.
So we need to see the move develop more impulsively to the downside now in order to rule out any larger wave (B) scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (C) to pick up steam and break that initial support by tomorrow evening.