Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 08-16-19 – Another day closer.

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Good evening all.

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EURUSD

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EURUSD has put in at least a short term low this afternoon at 1.1066.
The price has fallen in five waves in wave 'c' pink to that low,
and now we have a spike higher,
which could be the beginning of wave (c) of [ii].
Wave (c) is likely to rally in five waves towards the upper trendline.

Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to hold at 1.1066 and a rally in wave (c) to continue to break 1.1250.

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GBPUSD

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Cable is on the rise also today to begin wave (c) of [ii].
I have labelled the spike higher off wave (b) as wave 'i' of (c).
With a five wave rally expected from here.

Monday;
watch for 1.2073 to hold at wave (b),
and wave 'ii' to create a higher low by early Monday.
A break of 1.2183 will confirm wave (c).

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USDJPY

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USDJPY is holding above support in a fairly tenuous fashion today.
The price I have shown a possible three wave correction in wave (ii) still underway.
with wave 'c' of (ii) yet to complete.
this pattern is quite tight though,
and a break of 105.05 will rule it out.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to close out above 105.05.
A break of 106.96 will confirm wave (iii).

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW has rallied in three waves off the wave (i) low at 25235.
This is a corrective rally and should be retraced again early next week as wave (iii) down begins.
Wave (ii) has corrected back to the 50% retracement level of wave (i)
The price is off the high of the session at the close this evening.
If Mondays session opens lower again that should signal that wave 'i' of (iii) has begun.

There is real potential for a rapid acceleration lower in wave (iii) of [iii] over the next few weeks.
So the next few days trading is critically important.

Monday;
Watch for wave 'i' of (iii) to push lower and break 25234 at wave (i).

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GOLD

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Gold has moved lower today in a nice impulsive form.
This decline is labelled wave 'c' of (a) within a larger corrective wave [iv].
If this count is correct,
then we have a bumpy ride ahead of us down to about 1400 to compelte this corrective phase.

At this point I can't rule out the alternate count.
This calls for an expanded flat correction in wave [iv].
Where wave (b) will push to a new high above 1534 and then fall in wave (c).

Either way,
I think we are in for at least a few weeks of corrective action.

Monday;
watch for wave (a) to continue lower to about 1472 to complete.
A break of 1534 will trigger the alternate count.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude has been pretty flat today after completing three wave correction higher.
I have shown the move off the wave (ii) high as waves 'i' and 'ii' of (iii).
This wave count has real bearish potential right now,
so Monday could turn out to be the day wave (iii) down gets underway correctly.

Monday;
Watch for wave 'ii' to hold below the declining trend channel line again.
A break of 50.50 will confirm wave (iii),
but the price should create another lower high again to get wave 'iii' underway.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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The 10YR is holding below yesterdays high for the moment.
I cant say if this is an impulsive decline yet.
I want to wait for a larger five wave decline to play out
and a break below support at 128.43,
before calling the op in place for bonds.

But I dont think that days is too far away now.

Monday;
watch for wave (i) down to continue lower and in five waves next week.

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SILVER

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The action in silver today was horribly corrective.
the price barely made any progress to the downside.
This action does not suggest wave 'c' down is underway.

With this in mind I have switched to the alternate count this evening.
This allows for a rally in wave 'b' to a new high above 17.50.
This will complete a three wave rally in wave 'b' and then we can expect wave 'c' of (iv) to begin.

Monday;
Watch for wave 'b' to continue higher in three waves and top out with a break of 17.50.

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S&P 500.

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Wave (ii) has now traced out a three wave pattern higher off the wave (i) low.
Todays spike higher should be the end of wave 'c' of (ii).
And should lead to a return lower in wave (iii) next week.

The rally in wave (ii) has stopped just just below the 62.% retracement level of wave (i).
If we see a sharp sell off on Monday again which breaks 2816,
that will signal that wave (iii) down has begun.

Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) down to get underway with a selloff below support.

Wishing you all a lovely weekend!

GOD's speed and GOD bless you all.

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