Good evening to one and all, the Lord’s Blessings to you tonight.

Permanent job losses are now a feature of the economy, not a bug!

The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The price dropped to break the wave ‘i’ low at 1.0942 again today which rules out last nights suggested pattern for wave ‘ii’.
I am still going with the idea that wave ‘ii’ is underway here,
but the pattern is now shown as an expanded flat rather than a zigzag correction.
The price has dropped to a new low in three waves so far,
and this is labelled wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’.
Wave ‘ii’ will complete with a break of 1.1050 again and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’ of (i) later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a rally back above 1.1050 again to complete wave ‘ii’ as shown.
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed if we see a break back below 1.0900 again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable took another step lower today in line with a possible wave ‘iii’ of (iii) pattern.
The overall pattern in wave (iii) blue will be confirmed with a break of 1.2588.
And we are still a distance away from doing that,
so more work is required here.

Tomorrow;
The pattern is moving along reasonably well so far.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to extend the decline towards that 1.2588 low to confirm this pattern.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Three waves down overnight seems to have completed a fourth wave correction,
but I am unsure what degree this correction is.
I have labelled wave ‘iii’ and ‘iv’ in pink as complete at the low of the session.
But this could easily be a lower degree correction within wave ‘iii’.

The size of the rally out of wave ‘iv’ will determine the correct count.

Tomorrow;
For the moment the main wave count is holding.
And I am still suggesting a larger rally in wave ‘v’ of (iii) is ahead of us.
Watch for that wave (i) high to hold at 141.97.
Wave ‘v’ of (iii) should continue higher towards 145.00 to confirm this pattern.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market has moved lower today again while not challenging the recent high created last week.
The downside action is not convincing here just yet,
I can see some overlap in the pattern today even.
and for that reason I am not jumping with joy here!

This may be just another fourth wave correction developing within wave ‘v’ pink,
and I have labelled that alternate count in red this evening.

This fog may all clear over the next day or two if we see a solid acceleration lower again.
And in that case I will be happy to search again for that impulsive five waves down off the top.
I am looking at the price range from the wave ‘iii’ high to the wave ‘iv’ low as the test for the initial decline.
So lets see if the Dow will fall below 34570 again to tip the probability setup in favor of a top again.

Tomorrow;
A break of support at 34570 will rule out the alternate count shown for wave ‘4’ black.
So that is the main level of interest here.
And of course the top must hold again as this pattern develops.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is testing the 1935 support this evening and it seems the price is closing at that level as I write.
This level marks the wave (a) top within the previous correction higher.
So it is an important level in the pattern.

I would like to see a solid break down through that level and a test of the next band of support between 1902 and 1892.
Wave (iii) down should break that level with ease.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave Wave ‘iii’ down to fall towards the next lower level of support at 1902 to confirm this larger pattern for wave (iii) of [c].
I want to see that session high at 1954 hold as wave ‘iii’ develops.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude did actually reverse the action today and it seems we now have at least a refusal below that 83.38 wave ‘2’ high.
That level is important in terms of the larger pattern so I am hoping that it will remain un touched.

So,
there is the possibility that a larger reversal can build off todays top into wave (i) down.
Obviously the price must continue lower to break support at 73.77 at wave ‘iv’.
If that happens,
then wave (i) of [iii] will get a real boost in probability here.
And we can start to build a picture of the larger wave [iii] decline on the back of that.

Todays action was just the first baby step in that direction,
so there is much more to be done here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to build a lower high below 82.17 at todays high.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should fall towards 73.77 again as shown.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Three waves down off the top is what we have so far in the S&P.
While this is only a corrective pattern so far,
I am hoping for a some more downside to challenge the previous wave (iii) high at 4448 to at least offer the possibility of an impulsive reversal.

Wave (i) down requires much more downside to make this reversal pattern a little more convincing!
But,
we do have a few things in favor of that outcome now.
A trend channel in wave ‘2’ has been filled.
The price has actually dropped off after hitting the 78.6% retracement level of wave ‘1’ blue.
And the market is registering an extreme in bullish sentiment at a lower high.
That alone should raise some eyebrows.
But without a solid five wave decline into wave (i) the pattern lacks the confirmation it needs.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of support at 4448 to signal that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is in play here.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has dropped back below 24.00 with a nice impulsive looking spike today.
This action favors the idea that wave ‘iii’ is underway here,
but we do need a break of support at 23.30 and a completed five wave pattern again.
The real confirmation level for this pattern lies at 22.09.
A break of that level will signal that wave [c] is underway.
And at the moment,
we have a lot more work to do here before we get to that point.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to trace out five waves down to break 23.30.
Wave ‘iii’ pink should complete well below that support by Friday evening if all goes well here.