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A lot to talk about tonight!
So off we go.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD pushed far lower than expected today,
and the weakness has forced a rethink of the recent decline.
I have moved the short term wave count up by one degree.
So the whole decline off wave '2' at 1.1412 is now viewed as wave [i] of '3'.
Todays low at 1.1026 should hold,
and wave [ii] green is expected to retrace to resistance at 1.1287.
It seems that the long awaited wave '3' down is now upon us.
And the Euro is about to go through a serious slide over the coming bear-market.
This decline may even spell the end of the Euro project!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to continue higher to about 1.1180.
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GBPUSD
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The correction higher in wave [ii] is struggling to get going.
The price dropped to a fresh low today which rules out last nights count.
This new low can be viewed as wave (b) of [ii].
where wave [ii] is an expanded flat.
Wave (c) of [ii] should rally above wave (a) at a minimum.
As you can see,
I am now preparing for a much smaller corrective rally in wave [ii].
Where the upper limit will be about 1.2380.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) of [ii] to keep pushing higher in five waves.
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USDJPY
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I was expecting a small drop today,
but what happened blew the short term wave count out of the water completely!
Todays decline can be viewed as wave (c) of [ii],
this interpretation leaves the overall bullish outlook intact for now,
but the price must hold above 106.78 now
and an impulsive rally must begin into wave [iii].
If 106.78 breaks,
I will have to reassess the larger degree wave count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) to finish overnight.
The price must now rally in five waves off these lows.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The price is again closing lower this evening after a rebound rally this afternoon.
The market is whipsawing around off the recent high,
so we do not have a clear five waves down in place yet.
But I am willing to wait now,
and let the market action develop into a larger bearish structure.
As I mentioned last night,
we may be tracing out a series of impulse waves lower off the high.
In general,
this is a good start in the right direction!
Tomorrow;
Watch for five wave pattern to continue in a possible wave (iii) of [i] as shown.
26430 should break in this scenario.
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GOLD
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Gold has caught a nice bid off the back of the bearish stock market action today.
This action has kick-started the rally into wave (iii) after a sharp move higher off the lower trend channel line.
The price barely touched 1400 at the lows of wave 'c' of (ii),
and now the price has pushed higher again to begin wave 'i' of (iii).
Tomorrow;
I would like to see a break of 1453 at a minimum to signal wave 'i' of (iii) is underway.
1400 is now the key support as wave (iii) continues from here.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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The correction in wave [ii] proved right no the money today.
Crude took a sharp turn south today in what I have labelled wave (i) of [iii].
The move is nice and impulsive so far,
and any rebound from here should trace out a three wave structure in wave (ii).
Wave (iii) of [iii] of '3' lies ahead over the coming months,
And this decline will easily take out the May lows at 50.00.
Wave '3' itself should target the 40.00 handle more likely!
But we will take it one step at a time.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) to complete tomorrow.
Wave (ii) should take a few sessions to trace out.
So we may have a bearish signal in place at wave (ii) grey by midweek next week.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The alternate count came rushing into focus early in the session as the price broke above 127.67 to rule out the bearish count.
The triangle for wave [iv] has been confirmed today after the rally.
So we can now focus on wave [v] for the next week or so to complete the larger wave 'C' again.
The next target for wave [v] to complete lies at about 129.70
where the price will meet the upper trend channel line on the 4hr chart.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) of [v] to correct slightly.
Wave (v) of [v] should stretch higher again on Monday.
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SILVER
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Silver is up sharply off the afternoon lows at 15.91.
This action should complete the three wave correction in wave (iv).
And the rise off the session low,
is now viewed as the beginning of wave (v) of [iii].
This rally should again trace out five waves higher and most likely hit the 17.00 level before completing.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to continue higher for the next few days.
The price should hold above 15.91.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is down hard off a corrective rally today also.
The market is now closing near the lows of the session,
so the selling will likely continue tomorrow.
Especially if we get a weak jobs number as I expect.
The structure is hard to read as a complete five waves move off the high yet.
So I will wait and see over the coming days before sticking firmly to a count.
The main focus over the coming week is to identify a clear five wave move lower to signal the turn is in for the stock market.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) down to continue and possibly hit the lower support at 2900 before correcting higher again.
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