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Good evening everyone.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD is still trapped within a corrective rise in wave 'ii'.
Even though the price is only barely moving higher today.
I still expect this rise to complete a three wave correction tomorrow at about 1.1210.
Until that point, this pattern looks incomplete.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'ii' to continue pushing higher to reach 1.1188 at a minimum before turning lower in wave 'iii'.
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GBPUSD
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Cable seems to be finding a short term low off todays spike low at 1.2118.
The price has created a higher low this evening,
so this could be the beginning of wave (a) of [ii].
The minimum target for wave [ii] green lies at 1.2520.
And this rally should occur in three waves overall.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to continue higher for the rest of the week.
Wave (a) should reach above 1.2300 at a minimum.
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USDJPY
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I have moved the wave count up by one degree today as I mentioned last night.
I should be able to follow the trend change with a little more accuracy now.
The price moved lower today in wave 'c' of (ii).
And wave 'c' should hit the low of wave 'a' at 108.39 at a minimum before turning higher again to begin wave (iii) this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete shortly.
Wave 'i' of (iii) will be confirmed with a break above 109.00 again.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW gaped lower this morning,
and the rally off the low is in three waves into the high this evening.
So this suggests a corrective rally,
and the market is closing barely flat this evening.
This is a small move in general,
although it may prove significant if this is the beginning of wave 'iii' down as shown.
This action is a good start to a potential third wave
but cant be sure of that yet.
Only a solid break of 27000 will seal the deal on wave 'iii' down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 27275 to hold at wave 'ii'.
Wave 'iii' down will begin with a break of 27000 and should continue towards 26700 at a minimum.
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GOLD
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The rally in gold has not accelerated into a third wave as expected today,
I have not ruled out the bullish count just yet,
but todays lackluster performance,
definitely hints strongly at the alternate count now.
With this in mind,
I have raised the support to 1410 this evening.
If price falls below this level over the coming days,
that will trigger the alternate count and wave (ii) will be underway.
Tomorrow;
I will give wave 'v' one last chance to push above 1453 tomorrow to save the bullish count.
A break of 1410 will postpone the rally until wave (iii) begins in a few weeks time.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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This evenings spike above 57.65 rules out the previous short term count.
So we will have to wait for another week for a bearish signal to begin wave [iii].
I have now switched to the alternate count for wave [ii].
The price is tracing out a three wave correction overall.
Waves (a) and (b) are complete and wave (c) is underway.
The trend channel and the 62% Fibonacci retracement,
both suggest a target at 58.67 to complete wave (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to trace out five waves and hit the upper trend line to complete wave [ii] green.
A drop below 56.00 again should be enough to signal wave [iii] has begun.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Bonds are lower today off a possible wave 'ii' high posted yesterday evening.
If this decline continues below 127.00 again,
this will favor the bearish count.
And wave 'iii' of (iii) will be set to decline below 126.46.
And a break of the recent low at 126.70 again
should rule out the alternate count in wave [iv] shown circled in red.
We are at a pivotal moment in bonds,
so the short term action this week could set in motion a very large degree trend change.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'ii' to hold at 127.50.
Wave 'iii' down should continue and and break 127.00 tomorrow.
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SILVER
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The rise in silver has completed a three wave correction in wave 'b' of (iv) as shown.
The price hit the upper trend channel line this evening,
but the action is very choppy and indecisive.
I expect wave 'c' of (iv) to now drop back into support at 16.00 over the coming days.
Once this happens,
wave (iv) will be done.
And then wave (v) will be set to rally back above 17.00 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' of (iv) to begin dropping overnight.
A break of 16.30 will confirm wave 'c' is underway.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P now has created a clear lower high off the recent all time high of last week.
Just like the DOW,
the price gaped lower this morning.
And the price retraced that gap throughout the day to complete a three wave form off the low.
The price has not managed to fill the gap either this evening,
so this suggests very weak internal dynamics in the market right now.
After todays action,
I am leaning very heavily into full bearish mode!
Tomorrow we get the Fed funds rate,
they are expected to cut by 0.25%,
if they go by 0.5%,
that will be a bearish signal to traders.
And then on Friday we get the latest payroll data.
I expect it will be weak,
if so, we may move quickly into a third wave down and break support at 2958 this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for this lower high to hold
and a further decline back below 3000 to begin wave (iii) down.
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