Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

A Storm Of Indicators Show The US Consumer Is Tapped Out

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD continues to threaten to drop into wave (v) today but the pattern has yet to be confirmed.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) is expected to drop back to par at 1.00 again this week.
and if this does not happen tomorrow then I will have to consider the alternate count for wave (v) more carefully.
At the moment the plan has not changed as long as the high at 1.0277 holds.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower and to break parity to confirm the pattern for wave (v).
A break above 1.0277 will trigger the alternate count.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable put in a double top today and the rally broke to a new high for the week.
I am a little less confident that cable will turn lower now because of that rally.
although the pattern into the recent high is not ideal,
the action overall is corrective looking off the wave (iii) low.
We have a three wave pattern high in wave (iv).
And now the price must now fall in five waves in wave (v) and break the low at 1.1760 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to complete again.
A break below 1.1890 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I am looking at another possible pattern for the decline off the top of wave (3) this evening.
There may be a larger three wave decline underway in wave ‘A’ red.
And todays top is looking like a three wave correction higher in wave [b] of ‘A’.
If this pattern is correct,
then wave [c] is coming our way and should trace out five waves down to a new low in the area of 133.00 over the coming few days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to top out here and wave (i) of [c] should fall back into the low at wave [a] at 135.55.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market was pretty flat today after another rate rise by the fed.
To be honest,
I was unsure what pattern was operating in the hourly chart today,
But I can now make a case for an ongoing triangle pattern over the last week.
If the triangle is correct here,
then ‘c’ of (ii) is still be in operation here.
And now a new high this evening to complete wave ‘c’.

Tomorrow;
the main count for wave ‘c’ was ruled out this evening.
But even though we have a new high in place,
I do think we will see a rapid decline into wave ‘i’ to confirm the bearish pattern for wave (iii) before the end of this week.

Watch for wave ‘c’ to top out again tomorrow.
the trend channel is filled out again now,
and we have a five wave pattern up into this high,
so we might even see a reversal to wipe out this rally by tomorrow evening.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

We have a small spike this evening which has ruled out the main wave count for wave (v) now.
WE have three waves up again into a lower high wave ‘c’ of (iv).
So overall the pattern in wave (iv) us a complex running flat.

All this to say the count for the wave (iv) correction holds,
but I am just going to have to wait and see how the breaks after this evenings spike rally.
A reversal tomorrow to break below 1710 again will be a strong signal in favor of the wave (v) count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to hold at 1740.
wave (v) down should turn lower soon and fall below 1680 at a minimum.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil is up off last nights lows again today.
And this action favors the rally into wave [c] of ‘2’ now.
The price must continue higher and break above 101 tomorrow to confirm this count,
but the action does seem to favor this wave count now.
So I will stick with it until proved wrong.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) up to rally above 101 at the wave [a] high and then hold above that level as wave (iv) corrects the rally again on Friday.
The low at wave [b] must hold now.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ has extended the rally this evening and the market has made a very slight new high after that small spike rally.
The overall move in wave ‘c’ is still in five waves.
And this rally changes nothing in the big picture.
I expect we will see a selloff begin tomorrow in wave ‘1’ down.
As the pattern in wave ‘ii’ is about as good as you will get for a flat correction.
This evenings spike rally should exhaust any last gas in the tank,
and the real trend should re-assert itself again before the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to top out now and wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to turn lower again and wipe out all of the recent gains pretty quickly.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver rallied out of the triangle pattern I showed for wave [iv] last night.
And now I have switched things up a little to account for that rally.
I still think this is a correction higher to be honest,
and the triangle has a role in the pattern also.
Wave (b) of [iv] is a clear triangle correction,
and now we have a sharp rally to complete a complex correction in wave [iv] green.
This pattern should complete tomorrow,
and then wave [v] down can resume again on Friday.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [iv] to close out this three wave correction very soon.
A break of 18.43 again at wave (b) will signal wave (i) of [v] is underway.